ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#221 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:53 am

According to the official forecast Earl will intensify a little faster than Danielle did and its track is more threatening, certainly it will be an interesting and important system to watch.
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#222 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:57 am

Curious fact, when Earl forms later today, we will be exactly on par with 1969!

Link - http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#223 Postby bvigal » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:59 am

Yeah, except that we haven't had a Camille - Thank God!
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#224 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:01 am

I personally can't see much threat at all I really can't...

That being said if it were to stay further west for longer then the NE Caribbean may need to keep an eye on it but I'd have to imagine the NHC track wouldn't gain more then 5 degrees west from where it ends and show a pretty sharp turn to the NW...but too early to know for certain.

Either way the synoptics are pretty solid for a recurve.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#225 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:02 am

bvigal wrote:Yeah, except that we haven't had a Camille - Thank God!


But we had Bonnie!!! lol
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#226 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:04 am

Macrocane wrote:According to the official forecast Earl will intensify a little faster than Danielle did and its track is more threatening, certainly it will be an interesting and important system to watch.


We'll see how quickly it strengthens, the models generally don't seem quite as agressive with the strengthening of this one as they were orginally with Danielle but we will see if that changes.

Man I can't stress how lucky we are to have Danielle helping to extend the upper troughs weakness.
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#227 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:05 am

TD 7 has a favorable setup with low shear and an anticyclone aloft, especially compared to the westerlies Danielle is facing:
Image
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Re:

#228 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:12 am

KWT wrote:I personally can't see much threat at all I really can't...

That being said if it were to stay further west for longer then the NE Caribbean may need to keep an eye on it but I'd have to imagine the NHC track wouldn't gain more then 5 degrees west from where it ends and show a pretty sharp turn to the NW...but too early to know for certain.

Either way the synoptics are pretty solid for a recurve.


Ok I think we get it, it's going to go out to sea, no need to keep emphasizing it.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#229 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:22 am

HURAKAN wrote:
bvigal wrote:Yeah, except that we haven't had a Camille - Thank God!


But we had Bonnie!!! lol


That thing was like a summer time thunderstorm over the metro areas.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#230 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:23 am

SFLcane wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
bvigal wrote:Yeah, except that we haven't had a Camille - Thank God!


But we had Bonnie!!! lol


That thing was like a summer time thunderstorm over the metro areas.


Lets not offend our summer thunderstorms!!!

Back to topic now!
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#231 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:24 am

If Earl does not get into the dry air like Danielle did, he will probably become a very dangerous hurricane...
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#232 Postby caribepr » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:25 am

Watchin' and waitin'
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#233 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:27 am

This one has a better chance at directing affecting Bermuda, the further south track makes it more likely to head further west than Danielle, probably around 65W. I'm sure surfers are going to love living on the east coast because they are going to see a lot of large wave activity in the next few weeks with all of these 60-65W hurricane recurves.
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Re: Re:

#234 Postby LowndesCoFire » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:30 am

hurricaneCW wrote:
KWT wrote:I personally can't see much threat at all I really can't...

That being said if it were to stay further west for longer then the NE Caribbean may need to keep an eye on it but I'd have to imagine the NHC track wouldn't gain more then 5 degrees west from where it ends and show a pretty sharp turn to the NW...but too early to know for certain.

Either way the synoptics are pretty solid for a recurve.


Ok I think we get it, it's going to go out to sea, no need to keep emphasizing it.


Nothing is certain about TD7! I am slowly falling off of the recurve wagon with each passing day...
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#235 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:43 am

If thats not an interesting track forecast, I don't know what is.
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Re:

#236 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:45 am

RL3AO wrote:If thats not an interesting track forecast, I don't know what is.


Indeed.
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#237 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:48 am

Looks like a Florida to Ireland to Bermuda to Fish track.
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Re:

#238 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:53 am

RL3AO wrote:If thats not an interesting track forecast, I don't know what is.


It would be...if there wasn't a pretty huge open gapping wound of a weakness which Danielle is moving through at the same time...thats an obvious recurver all day long when you take into account that danielle is nearly due north of the system by that time...
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Re: Re:

#239 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:54 am

KWT wrote:
RL3AO wrote:If thats not an interesting track forecast, I don't know what is.


It would be...if there wasn't a pretty huge open gapping wound of a weakness which Danielle is moving through at the same time...thats an obvious recurver all day long when you take into account that danielle is nearly due north of the system by that time...


I'm glad you can be so certain about a tropical cyclone 9 days out. Thankfully we have you.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SEVEN - Discussion

#240 Postby LowndesCoFire » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:57 am

Anyone else see this on AccuWeather.com free site?

(08/25/10 9:30AM)
"Joe has some concern that Danielle or Tropical Depression 7, soon to be Earl, may miss the turn off to the north in the Atlantic, which could allow the features to drift closer to the East Coast of the U.S."

Just food for thought. Not saying I buy it...
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