2010 ACE: Atlantic=159.8625 / EPAC=48.44 / WPAC=118.6700

[supercane]

The crazy thing is that Colin may contribute enough ACE so that the Atlantic actually approaches or even exceeds the WPac seasonal ACE. A very slow WPac season indeed.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest ACE that TS Colin has.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2010_ ... /ACE_calcs

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04L.Colin
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 2 August 11 am EDT 30 0
2 2 August 5 pm EDT 30 0
3 2 August 11 pm EDT 30 0
4 3 August 5 am EDT 35 0.1225
5 3 August 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
6 3 August 5 pm EDT 35 Low
7 5 August 5 pm EDT 40 0.1600
8 5 August 7:30 pm EDT 50 Special
9 5 August 11 pm EDT 50 0.2500
10 6 August 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
11 6 August 11 am EDT 40 0.1600
Total       0.975


Total for 2010 Atlantic season:

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 0.9750
Total  8.125


[KWT]

Getting close to 10 units, probably about average for the time of year, of course one moderate CV system would puse us decent above average again in the Atlantic.

[RattleMan]

Code: Select all

   04L.Colin   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   30   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225
5   35   0.1225
6   PT   0
7   40   0.16
8   50-S   0
9   50   0.25
10   40   0.16
11   40   0.16
12   40   0.16
13   40   0.16
14   40   0.16


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   07E.Estelle   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   30   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225
5   45   0.2025
6   45   0.2025


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   Atlantic   
Alex   6.7825   78.82%
Bonnie   0.3675   4.27%
Colin   1.455   16.91%
      
TOTAL   8.605   


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   Eastern Pacific   
Agatha   0.2825   0.73%
Blas   2.3425   6.09%
Celia   24.92   64.81%
Darby   10.3775   26.99%
Estelle   0.5275   1.37%
      
TOTAL   38.45   


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ATL   8.605   10.54%
EPAC   38.45   47.08%
CPAC   0   0.00%
WPAC   13.34   16.34%
NIO   21.27   26.05%
      
TOTAL   81.665   


[KWT]

The ACE is finally getting moving after quite a slow spell...

[cycloneye]

Including 0300z

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04L.Colin
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 2 August 11 am EDT 30 0
2 2 August 5 pm EDT 30 0
3 2 August 11 pm EDT 30 0
4 3 August 5 am EDT 35 0.1225
5 3 August 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
6 3 August 5 pm EDT 35 Low
7 5 August 5 pm EDT 40 0.1600
8 5 August 7:30 pm EDT 50 Special
9 5 August 11 pm EDT 50 0.2500
10 6 August 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
11 6 August 11 am EDT 40 0.1600
12 6 August 5 pm EDT 40 0.1600
13 6 August 11 pm EDT 40 0.1600
14 7 August 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
15 7 August 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
16 7 August 5 pm EDT 35 0.1225
17 7 August 11 pm EDT 35 0.1225
Total       1.8225


Atlantic so far

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.8225
Total  8.9725


Eastern Pacific so far

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ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 23.7 Celia 4 0.73 Estelle
2 10.8 Darby 5 0.53 Agatha
3 2.72 Blas   
Total: 38.50 (0)


[cycloneye]

Final ACE numbers on Colin and the total Atlantic numbers :

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04L.Colin
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 2 August 11 am EDT 30 0
2 2 August 5 pm EDT 30 0
3 2 August 11 pm EDT 30 0
4 3 August 5 am EDT 35 0.1225
5 3 August 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
6 3 August 5 pm EDT 35 Low
7 5 August 5 pm EDT 40 0.1600
8 5 August 7:30 pm EDT 50 Special
9 5 August 11 pm EDT 50 0.2500
10 6 August 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
11 6 August 11 am EDT 40 0.1600
12 6 August 5 pm EDT 40 0.1600
13 6 August 11 pm EDT 40 0.1600
14 7 August 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
15 7 August 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
16 7 August 5 pm EDT 35 0.1225
17 7 August 11 pm EDT 35 0.1225
18 8 August 5 am EDT 35 0.1225
19 8 August 11 am EDT 30 0
Total       1.945

[edit] Best Track
[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
Total  9.095


[RattleMan]

Code: Select all

   04L.Colin   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   30   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225
5   35   0.1225
6   PT   0
7   40   0.16
8   50-S   0
9   50   0.25
10   40   0.16
11   40   0.16
12   40   0.16
13   40   0.16
14   40   0.16
15   35   0.1225
16   35   0.1225
17   35   0.1225
18   35   0.1225
19   30   0
20   D   0


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   07E.Estelle   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   30   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225
5   45   0.2025
6   45   0.2025
7   45   0.2025
8   50   0.25
9   55   0.3025
10   55   0.3025
11   50   0.25
12   40   0.16
13   40   0.16
14   40   0.16
15   35   0.1225


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   05W.Dianmu   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   25   0
2   25   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225
5   35   0.1225
6   45   0.2025
7   45   0.2025


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ATL   9.095   10.74%
EPAC   40.36   47.64%
CPAC   0   0.00%
WPAC   13.99   16.51%
NIO   21.27   25.11%
      
TOTAL   84.715   



      
   Atlantic   
Alex   6.7825   74.57%
Bonnie   0.3675   4.04%
Colin   1.945   21.39%
      
TOTAL   9.095   
      


   Eastern Pacific   
Agatha   0.2825   0.70%
Blas   2.3425   5.80%
Celia   24.92   61.74%
Darby   10.3775   25.71%
Estelle   2.4375   6.04%
      
TOTAL   40.36   
      
      
      
   West Pacific   
Omais   1.965   14.05%
Conson   8.1225   58.06%
Chanthu   3.2525   23.25%
Dianmu   0.65   4.65%
   
TOTAL   13.99


[cycloneye]

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06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
Total       0.1225


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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 0.1225
Total  9.2175


[cycloneye]

0300z in Atlantic

Who has the EPAC and WPAC updated ACE numbers?

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06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
Total       0.325


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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 0.325
Total  9.42


[RattleMan]

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   09E.Frank   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   25   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   40   0.16
5   50   0.25
6   50   0.25


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   06L.Danielle   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   25   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   30   0
5   35   0.1225
6   45   0.2025


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   06L.Mindulle   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   30   0
2   30   0
3   30   0
4   35   0.1225


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ATL   9.42   10.76%
EPAC   41.02   46.85%
CPAC   0   0.00%
WPAC   15.8425   18.09%
NIO   21.27   24.29%
      
TOTAL   87.5525   
      
   Atlantic   
Alex   6.7825   72.00%
Bonnie   0.3675   3.90%
Colin   1.945   20.65%
Danielle   0.325   3.45%
      
TOTAL   9.42   
      
   Eastern Pacific   
Agatha   0.2825   0.69%
Blas   2.3425   5.71%
Celia   24.92   60.75%
Darby   10.3775   25.30%
Estelle   2.4375   5.94%
Frank   0.66   1.61%
      
TOTAL   41.02   
      
   West Pacific   
Omais   1.965   12.40%
Conson   8.1225   51.27%
Chanthu   3.2525   20.53%
Dianmu   2.38   15.02%
Mindulle   0.1225   0.77%
         
TOTAL   15.8425


[cycloneye]

Danielle ACE units including the 11 AM EDT Advisory of 55kts.

Code: Select all

06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
7 23 August 5 am AST 50 0.2500
8 23 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
Total       0.8775


Atlantic season total including the 11 AM EDT Danielle advisory of 55kts.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 0.8775
Total  9.9725


[cycloneye]

2100z update of Atlantic including the 65kts of Danielle.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 1.3
Total  10.395


[KWT]

The Atlantic looks like its about to tear past the WPAC and if Earl comes off we could be past the EPAC by early September!

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE totals as of 0300z advisory of Danielle at 75 kts.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 1.8625
Total  10.9575


Who has the EPAC and WPAC updates?

[cycloneye]

Danielle ACE numbers as of 1500z

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06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
7 23 August 5 am AST 50 0.2500
8 23 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
9 23 August 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
10 23 August 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
11 24 August 5 am AST 85 0.7225
12 24 August 11 am AST 70 0.4900
Total       3.0750


Atlantic ACE Totals as of 1500z

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 3.0750
Total  12.17

[cycloneye]

Danielle's ACE as of 2100z Advisory at 60kts

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06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
7 23 August 5 am AST 50 0.2500
8 23 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
9 23 August 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
10 23 August 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
11 24 August 5 am AST 85 0.7225
12 24 August 11 am AST 70 0.4900
13 24 August 5 pm AST 60 0.3600
Total       3.435


Atlantic ACE Totals as of 2100z Advisory of Danielle at 60kts.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 3.435
Total  12.53


[KWT]

Daneille should overtake Alex fairly soon I'd imagine, though the odds of a 30-40 type system looking much reduced due to the weakening today, still 20-30 looks more then do able.

Edit---If the CV season really does explode to life then its possible if the WPAC stays sluggish that this year beats the WPAC for ACE!
I bet that hasn't happened very often!

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE update as of 0300z Advisory of Danielle at 65kts

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 3.8575
Total  12.9525


[cycloneye]

Danielle update as of 1500z at 75kts

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06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
7 23 August 5 am AST 50 0.2500
8 23 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
9 23 August 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
10 23 August 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
11 24 August 5 am AST 85 0.7225
12 24 August 11 am AST 70 0.4900
13 24 August 5 pm AST 60 0.3600
14 24 August 11 pm AST 65 0.4225
15 25 August 5 am AST 75 0.5625
16 25 August 11 am AST 75 0.5625
Total       4.9825


Atlantic update of ACE Units as of the 1500z advisory of Danielle at 75kts

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 4.9825
Total  14.0775


Does anyone has the updated ACE from the EPAC and WPAC?