ATL: EARL - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, based upon the models, at appears you guys are right....
Anything that forms in the CV this year is going to recurve and
this possibility will only increase as we head into FAll...

Looks like all landfalls will be coming from Carib or Gulf storms.
I thought that Earl or the one following would have an East Coast threat
but now that I look at the models, I was wrong.I love tracking CV Fish storms and have them plotted currently
already, but I'm not going to concern myself anymore with recurve wars, since it looks pretty
obvious to me... Not worth burning the mental energy with.....

[bvigal]

In honor of the ongoing debate I have made a new version of an old smilie:

[cycloneye]

Yep, based upon the models, at appears you guys are right....
Anything that forms in the CV this year is going to recurve and
this possibility will only increase as we head into FAll...

Looks like all landfalls will be coming from Carib or Gulf storms.
I thought that Earl or the one following would have an East Coast threat
but now that I look at the models, I was wrong.I love tracking CV Fish storms and have them plotted currently
already, but I'm not going to concern myself anymore with recurve wars, since it looks pretty
obvious to me... Not worth burning the mental energy with.....

Remember about the ACE that will shoot up bigtime and the Atlantic season needs that to then be a hyperactive one.

[hurricaneCW]

At the same type, due to the hyping of the season to the public, if there are no big landfalls of at least a Cat 1 hurricane, than there will be tremendous complacency in the future when a big storm does threaten land. Although the season is far from over and there is still plenty of time for a storm to threaten land. The ACE numbers do not matter to the public, it's the impact that matters.

[supercane]

In honor of the ongoing debate I have made a new version of an old smilie:

Nice!

[Frank2]

Actually Bermuda would be pelted by both Danielle and Earl in the latest run, not to mention Earl goes up to Atlantic Canada as a strong storm. So while the U.S. is safe, the storms would not technically be "fish" storms.

True enough - no man (or Nation) is an island (except Bermuda - lol)...

P.S. I had a good laugh with that "FISH/NO" graphic - next thing you know we'll be on FOXNews with the rest of the pundits (LOL)...

Oh, well - back to the GFS model - not sure what model NHC forecaster Lixion (Avila) was using to write his forecast cone, however (though if he were on this board he'd be in the "NO" camp, that's for sure - lol)...

Frank

[artist]

In honor of the ongoing debate I have made a new version of an old smilie:

[img]javascript:emoticon('[fallingdown]', 'themes/default/laughing.gif')[/img]

haha that is too funny!

my own thoughts? This thing is just too far out to be 100% certain what will transpire in 10 days from now. As we know, the changes in pattern affect eveything this time of year and how far those patterns dig, etc.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, based upon the models, at appears you guys are right....
Anything that forms in the CV this year is going to recurve and
this possibility will only increase as we head into FAll...

Looks like all landfalls will be coming from Carib or Gulf storms.
I thought that Earl or the one following would have an East Coast threat
but now that I look at the models, I was wrong.I love tracking CV Fish storms and have them plotted currently
already, but I'm not going to concern myself anymore with recurve wars, since it looks pretty
obvious to me... Not worth burning the mental energy with.....

Remember about the ACE that will shoot up bigtime and the Atlantic season needs that to then be a hyperactive one.

Yep, looks like the Recurve ACE will be fairly high this year.
although the landfall ACE may be fairly low.

[HURAKAN]

Danielle, Earl and possibly Fiona form the Bermuda Triangle!

[Boriken]

Danielle, Earl and possibly Fiona form the Bermuda Triangle!

No doubt why so many mysterious thinks has happen there

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out to day 4

Earl is awfully close to the NE Islands

[dimer36]

that wave model gets me excited. looks like good surf for the next two weeks...

[floridasun78]

do you all know not all cape system will be fish people look at lot of post here their got feeling no storm will affect land if you look at cone for td7 it do get close leedwards so that more southern track so this still cannnot be call fish

[ROCK]

12z Euro out to day 4

Earl is awfully close to the NE Islands

if he stays weaker or Dee lifts out faster than progged...hello PR...IMO...

[floridasun78]

becarefully using word fish we still early models runs

[Ivanhater]

120 hours...will be a close call for the Islands if the 12z Euro is correct which is very far South and West compared to yesterday's run

[Evil Jeremy]

do you all know not all cape system will be fish people look at lot of post here their got feeling no storm will affect land if you look at cone for td7 it do get close leedwards so that more southern track so this still cannnot be call fish

Of course we know not all storms will be fish. However, right now, there is good model agreement that this will be a fish. When the models and other info say otherwise, then maybe the collective opinion will change, but if everyone is saying "fish", there has to be a good reason why.

[cycloneye]

Ivan, and look at that H in the NE coast of U.S.

[Ivanhater]

144 hours...blows Earl up..Fiona not far behind

[Vortex]

Ivan,

I've been driving home that point. Earl more or less will head w/wnw to at least 55w based on the best guidance we have at this time...If I was in Antigua, St. Marteen etc..I'd really watch Earl..By that time there's no reason to think this wont be a major...The big question than will be how fast will the weakness fill in Dani's wake?