ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

I'm glad you can be so certain about a tropical cyclone 9 days out. Thankfully we have you.

I don't know, think I'm nailing Danielle's track at the moment from longer then 9 days out!

Seriously though as I saidn with Danielle, it is too early to know but in this case take a look at the upper level pattern and the fact that Danielle does go through and slow down whilst Earl races westwards. Its possible though Earl could miss the connection but I'm doubtful right now to be honest.

I did think at one point this one was a real threat but we will have to see how the upper level pattern evolves...

Lets just say I'm gaining a lot of confidence in the models this year, the resolution upgrades seem to be really helping them out with tropical cyclone forecasting.

WNW motion should carry on for the next few days though and then we will learn how the upper pattern responds in the meantime...though I'm not totally comfortable with this one missing the NE Caribbean just yet though the models are pretty keen.

We should wait and see exactly what the evolution of Danielle is before we make the assumption that TD 7 will turn into her weakness. If danielle moves out quicker or Earl slows some the the weakness could fill and keep Earl heading on a wnw track. Things can and will change I mean these systems are a 1,000 miles apart.

[artist]

Definitely will be Earl at 5, probably 40 kt.

totally agree. earl has a better chance at a major than danielle.

just curious as to your reasoning.

[cycloneye]

KWT, if Danielle is more weaker than expected, that may not leave a big weakness for Earl right?

[abajan]

Danielle looks rather sheared right now but this one is a developing beauty. Maybe we'll get the first major out of this one...

Make that the second major. Remember Alex?

alex wasn't a major

Yes, you’re right.
I could have sworn it became a major cane.

[HurricaneBelle]

Yes, you’re right.
I could have sworn it became a major cane.

It had the pressure of a major - 943mb

[Vortex]

While I expect recurvature E of 65W, I do think Earl could make a run at the northern leewards

[Frank2]

This is already on a WNW track - soon to cross 15N at that rate:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

FYI - the first Danielle advisory at 21Z August 21st had the position at 18Z today near 21N/52W. That's only off about 90 miles total, and about 70-80 miles west of the current track. So it was a pretty good forecast. Danielle is not tracking significantly farther west than was forecast.

As for Earl, I do think it's way too early to be confident in a recurve east of the Caribbean. But with the moderately negative (and forecast to remain so) NAO, it would be hard for a system developing so far north that far east to impact the Caribbean. It's happened before, but not often, as indicated by the graphic below which shows all August/September storms passing within 75 miles of TD 7's current position:

7 of 37 storms reached the U.S. / 2 entered the Caribbean


Model guidance suggests that Earl will most likely miss the Caribbean. That's probably a good bet. Beyond then, it's hard to say if the ridge might build to its north, forcing a westward movement for long enough to threaten the U.S. East Coast. Climatology alone suggests about a 19% chance of a U.S. impact. That compares to about 3 of 35 U.S. landfalls from Danielle's current location (9%).

[cycloneye]

Thanks for bringing that 57. Anyway,I am watching this one from here just in case.

[wxman57]

Thanks for bringing that 57. Anyway,I am watching this one from here just in case.

Looks like that Great Okeechobee Hurricane" of 1928 got you, Luis. I don't suppose you remember that one, though.

[cycloneye]

Thanks for bringing that 57. Anyway,I am watching this one from here just in case.

Looks like that Great Okeechobee Hurricane" of 1928 got you, Luis. I don't suppose you remember that one, though.

Here it is, the only Cat 5 on the history of landfalls in PR. I did not see it of course ,but my father and mother saw it and was a horrible experience.



Have you talked to the NE Caribbean clients about TD 7/Earl?

[caribepr]

Luis is an old soul, but not that old!

[Ivanhater]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Fun fact: The last "Earl" to reach hurricane intensity in the Open Atlantic was in 1986. Dr. Willoughby was telling me a few hours ago that he remembers flying into this Earl in the Hurricane Hunters!



Earning its stripes!

[wxman57]

I expect an upgrade to TS Earl shortly. Quite impressive on satellite. 18Z model headers nay well have "Earl" in there in a few minutes.

[ROCK]

Fun fact: The last "Earl" to reach hurricane intensity in the Open Atlantic was in 1986. Dr. Willoughby was telling me a few hours ago that he remembers flying into this Earl in the Hurricane Hunters!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.78pc.jpg

Earning its stripes!

1986 we had hurricane flights? nice...didnt know that....

[cycloneye]

SAB has Earl.

25/1745 UTC 14.1N 31.8W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

I'd personally bring it up to 40 kt.

[Blown Away]

I'm hoping my dream doesn't come true and Earl is a fish. In my dream last week it was an E storm off the coast raking Naples, St. Pete and Tampa in my dream.

Good thing it's only a dream, but I for one would love a hurricane up here. That would be spectacular to witness and experience. I hope one impacts me once in my lifetime. Nothing too powerful, a Cat 1 would do.

You guys are a couple of goobers!

[thetruesms]

I expect an upgrade to TS Earl shortly. Quite impressive on satellite. 18Z model headers nay well have "Earl" in there in a few minutes.

Indeed, it looks great right now.

And am I missing some way to get its images through NRL? I'm getting nothing for 7 right now on their site, even with a forced cache skip refresh Thread shows pretty clearly that they're out there