Will the recurving pattern in Atlantic continue thru Sept?

[cycloneye]

I am creating this thread to have analysis (Pro Mets are welcomed) about this recurving pattern that so far the Atlantic has seen. I know that there will be some changes comming soon with the NAO (Northern Atlantic Ocillation) turning positive but will it be strong enough to have a decent subtropical ridge that may allow Tropical Cyclones to move further west into landmasses? Or the ridge will not be as strong combined with troughiness that will continue with the recurving thru all of September?

Graphic of NAO forecasts.

[KWT]

I say yes more then likely it will continue, I just don't see any reason for it to change away from what we have already to be honest....of course you only need a short 5-7 day shift to get a system from say where they are recurving right now at 60W to getting a system to hit the US/Caribbean.

Also with regards to the NAO, looking at the heights we still keep a broadly -ve pattern even if the surface pressure does suggest a brief positive phase is possible...remember its the relative heights that are important for tracks not the surface pressure...

[hurricaneCW]

JB and the forecasters blew the track analysis big time then, JB especially. He said up to 7 systems were to strike the U.S. Now everything will recurve at 60W. The only hope for a landfall would be from a Caribbean or Gulf developer or a Cape Verde wave that doesn't develop until past 60W.

[KWT]

Well you never know one may slip through as I said but no doubt the main pattern will be recurving within 5 degrees of say 60W this season and I'm guessing when we look at the overall season that will be the case, with maybe a smattering in the Caribbean/Gulf, may look a little like 1995 map.

[Frank2]

The current pro met (TWC) comments about Danielle moving very slowly north or near Bermuda before moving NE would only make the trough linger, so it's a possibility - it's happened before...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

KWT,

Keeping with this way of thinking and the CV recurving. Do you have any numbers for those years mentioned of what did form in the Caribbean or gulf and where they made land fall if any did.

[StormClouds63]

Well you never know one may slip through as I said but no doubt the main pattern will be recurving within 5 degrees of say 60W this season and I'm guessing when we look at the overall season that will be the case, with maybe a smattering in the Caribbean/Gulf, may look a little like 1995 map.

Here's the 1995 season ... very fishy. Biggest U.S. threat turned out to be Opal, which formed SW GOM in late September and made landfall on the FL panhandle in early October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[HurrMark]

I think it will. I have suspected for some time now that this season will see a lot of fish, and a good number of Gulf systems. Fortunately for the Gulf, usually you don't have too much time for development due to a small amount of real estate to work with...so you're going to get some weak-moderate tropical storms.

I am not saying that we are going to be hurricane free (especially late September-early October, when you can get a strong storm coming from the Caribbean northward), but as every day passes, and the trough lingers, the chances get smaller and smaller.

This might be a bit off-topic (although partially on-topic), but I have been thinking...especially with a couple of models showing Danielle as a NE threat (although that seems to have gone away). It has been 19 years since the last hurricane struck the northeast (Bob)...we have had a few TS's in that time, but no full fledged hurricanes. I think you have to go back to 1916-1936 for a longer spell without a hurricane...and if we go one more year, you have to go back deep into the 19th century for a longer spell.

I am wondering what happened from the late 30s to early 60s synoptically that allowed many hurricanes to make landfall in the northeast, that seems to be missing today. The only systems that affect this part of the country have generally gone through a good chunk of land (namely NC) before heading this way...somehow, storms were able to climb above 40N and not really recurve, and therefore bypass land completely (or nearly completely).

[KWT]

Of course the end of 1995 did have a few decent storms that formed in nthe Caribbean/Gulf regions, Opal could have been even worse then it was if it hadn't weakened rapidly, and also Roxanne was a major landfall in the Yucatan and stayed a hurricane inland for 24hrs!

[ConvergenceZone]

Unfortunately there's no way to tell when it comes to recurves what's going to happen this year.

It's possible to just get landfalling tropical storms and the rest of whatever does develop curves out to sea......

I said this back in early august that this season still has the potential of consisting of nothing but recurves and weak land falling storms....I'm really waiting for a storm to change my mind. Perhaps in September, one will.....

[Steve]

>>JB and the forecasters blew the track analysis big time then, JB especially. He said up to 7 systems were to strike the U.S. Now everything will recurve at 60W. The only hope for a landfall would be from a Caribbean or Gulf developer or a Cape Verde wave that doesn't develop until past 60W.

He said 8 storms landfalling on the USA - 3 TS, 5 H, 2 Majors. He hasn't blown anything nor has anyone who is suggesting the opposite (KWT). It's August 25th and just the beginning of the major part of this season. I'd bet my alias against anyone else who is (wo)man enough to do the same that there is absolutely no way that everything that forms east of 60 recurves by 60. No way. No how. The current setup may be prevailing for now, but it's a weak signal anyway at negative. This isn't some entrenched pattern that can't flip (even flip back to this again). Some real loose cannon statements being made on this thread IMHO. One need only to understand what Summer to Fall means for the continent and follow along at 200mb and 500mb to see that the idea of some entrenched East Coast Trough (of any lingering dominance) is going to bust. This season, that would go against basic physics.

And no one should assume I'm cheerleading for storms. I've just got my eyes open.

[RL3AO]

JB and the forecasters blew the track analysis big time then, JB especially. He said up to 7 systems were to strike the U.S. Now everything will recurve at 60W. The only hope for a landfall would be from a Caribbean or Gulf developer or a Cape Verde wave that doesn't develop until past 60W.

How did they blow it? Alex and Bonnie hit the US (or at least impacted it) as well as TD2 and TD5. I'd say they've been right about it being an active US season.

[KWT]

Steve, oh for sure one could well slip through the net, even in the biggest of these types of seasons usually one will slip through, like 1995 did get Marilyn far west to hit the E.cAribbean fairly hard and Luis did clip the NE Caribbean as well.

That being said I really don't think there is that much of a risk from the CV this season, esp when we take into consideration that somrthing like only 20% make it to say 75W anyway and thats not taking into consideration the troughing has seemed to have been more stubborn then normal.

I just think if you look at the mean pattern in the last month its been very stubborn indeed and I'm seeing no real signs of change either at the moment, the global set-up is pretty stale due to the La Nina present...we are keeping what is broadly a -ve NAO pattern on the models still out to 10 days and whilst it does not show as a -ve NAO on the models per say, the upper pattern is still responding as it would do in a -ve NAO as well.

All I've said is the mean track will be for system to curve out near 55-65W, Colin, probably Danielle and from the looks of
the models TD7 are all forecasted or have gone through that same gap...which is why it reminds me of 1995.

ps, I do expect a westward moving Caribbean storm though some point in September, but forming maybe at 50-60W, that'll be the one that slips through IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

while this year so far as spelled recurve, keep in mind that it's nothing out
of the ordinary for CV storms to recurve...They are doing exactly as they suppose to do....
Only once in a great while does one slip through.

[Steve]

I wouldn't disagree with that KWT, but I wouldn't call it Gospel Truth yet either. The upper pattern is wishy-washy and should allow for multipe recurves. However, we are just now seeing signs of high pressure starting to build into the Northeast. Whether it becomes transient or established remains to be seen. That will still allow for some recurves (probably most). But think of 1998 with Georges and some of the other analog years. There will be systems originating east of 60W that will cross 60W. There's no doubt in my mind it is going to happen. This does not say that anything crossing 60W is going to hit North America. We don't know the particulars on all the potential CV systems until we see the action. That's what I'm saying.

[ninel conde]

JB and the forecasters blew the track analysis big time then, JB especially. He said up to 7 systems were to strike the U.S. Now everything will recurve at 60W. The only hope for a landfall would be from a Caribbean or Gulf developer or a Cape Verde wave that doesn't develop until past 60W.

How did they blow it? Alex and Bonnie hit the US (or at least impacted it) as well as TD2 and TD5. I'd say they've been right about it being an active US season.

Im not sure i would consider that an active US season. Joe has 6 to go and that seems unlikely.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well you never know one may slip through as I said but no doubt the main pattern will be recurving within 5 degrees of say 60W this season and I'm guessing when we look at the overall season that will be the case, with maybe a smattering in the Caribbean/Gulf, may look a little like 1995 map.

Here's the 1995 season ... very fishy. Biggest U.S. threat turned out to be Opal, which formed SW GOM in late September and made landfall on the FL panhandle in early October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Thank you Storm & KWT for the 1995 numbers, was just curious how south fla was affected. At least in that yr and the setup compared to this year, it looks as though we were not. Not to say we cannot be affected this yr.

[DisasterMagnet]

This is my first post on the main board:
This does look a lot like the 1995 season. I recall watching them roll off of Africa like smoke rings. I'm glad KWT pointed out the effect of some of the storms on the Caribbean: I was living on the top of St. Thomas with Marilyn. There's still some disagreement, but I still believe it got to a Cat. 4 at landfall.

I've been through a few hurricanes/TSs and I, for one, love seeing them recurve. There's nothing more amazing than seeing a Cat. 5 on visible radar and it's even better if no one is affected.

I apologize if this stirs any pot, but after hanging out here for awhile, I have noticed the posts of people who seem to want to see Katrina all over again. I'll assume they've never been directly affected by a major. I'm just a weather geek and I'm having fun learning a lot from you guys.

[HurrMark]

1995 might turn out to be a very good analog to this year...all US landfalls were incepted in the Gulf (except Erin, which was homebrew all the way). While Opal was the biggie (early October), most of the others recurved east of the US.

The main difference is that the longitude of recurvature that year was 60-70...which allowed for some Caribbean hits. The pattern right now favors recurvature between 55-65...safely away from everyone (except maybe Bermuda).

[MWatkins]

Sorry but I have to chime in.

First, we had the predictable "we are never going to see a named storm in the Atlantic this season" posts from two weeks ago, asking where all the storms were.

Now, we have named storms spinning around (ahead of climatology, by the way) and there seems to be a bit of a panic and anger setting in that the first Cape Verde storms may not make landfall?

I honestly sense anger in these posts, and I don't understand it. Ridge/trough patterns don't last 8 weeks...September hasn't kicked in yet, and I am super worried about an active October and what that could mean for Florida and the northern Gulf coast.

I understand this is a discussion board, but geez what is with all of the fatalistic pangs of disappointment that Danielle may not make landfall?

The odds are good we will still see at least one more named storm before the month is over before we ever get to Sept/Oct. I don't think we should declare the winner of a basketball game based on which team scores first. It's maddening.

MW