ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
looks like a lot of shear to go thru for danielle....wouldn't be shocked to see her back down to a strong tropical storm by later today just looking at her current stats and the unsettledness to her NW....although as she turns more Northwest even NNW (short term?) the shear may be more SW or SSW ......also looks like she may go further east by ....i dunno several hundred miles?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
18z Best Track
AL, 06, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 206N, 527W, 75, 982, HU
AL, 06, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 206N, 527W, 75, 982, HU
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
the GFDL and HRWF says ....keep watchin the track of danielle
right now she's bouncing n then bouncing more W.....(stair stepping).....perhaps tonite she moves back WNW for a time.
right now she's bouncing n then bouncing more W.....(stair stepping).....perhaps tonite she moves back WNW for a time.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
cpdaman wrote:the GFDL and HRWF says ....keep watchin the track of danielle
right now she's bouncing n then bouncing more W.....(stair stepping).....perhaps tonite she moves back WNW for a time.
yeah, ridges are not smooth as depicted in model runs....she will bump up against the ridge until she finds a spot weaker to move into and eventually find the escape hatch...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
looks like she is supposed to find that escape hatch around 60-62W....but GFDL and HRWF says someone will stuff the other end of the escape hatch after a day or so....and then ???
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She has been hauling tail NNW for the last 6 hours and the current ridge looks like it is breaking down. The model runs show a new ridge building back south that is forecast to stall Danielle and pull her back to the west some but above 30 N you know how that usually ends up. New model runs may look different. Actually this is bad news for US interests because it would give enough time for the ridge to build back in for Earl.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
The further north and east this one goes, the more likely Earl gets further west. The latest Euro shows the separation thus bringing Earl much further west than before, very close to the NE islands.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
where would u guys identify the center location as of 1815...?
21.2 / 53 looks clear to me
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
21.2 / 53 looks clear to me
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
anyone wanna guess what latitude danielle is at when she passes 55W
if she is 21.2/ 53
if she is 21.2/ 53
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
cpdaman wrote:where would u guys identify the center location as of 1815...?
21.2 / 53 looks clear to me
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
NHC Has it at 20.6N/52.7W. It's not in the center of the CDO. I measure a 6hr movement toward 323 degrees (NW) at 16 kts.
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The WV loop shows the trough beginning to move off the SE US coast, with another trough dropping SE behind it, so apparently we are in a recurve pattern, thankfully...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Re:
Frank2 wrote:The WV loop shows the trough beginning to move off the SE US coast, with another trough dropping SE behind it, so apparently we are in a recurve pattern, thankfully...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Definite for Danielle, too early to say for the other ones. A huge ridge of high pressure is going to be building over the east coast in a few days. If either Earl or the one behind it misses Danielle's weakness, then game on.
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Re:
Nimbus wrote:She has been hauling tail NNW for the last 6 hours and the current ridge looks like it is breaking down. The model runs show a new ridge building back south that is forecast to stall Danielle and pull her back to the west some but above 30 N you know how that usually ends up. New model runs may look different. Actually this is bad news for US interests because it would give enough time for the ridge to build back in for Earl.
i don't see NNW i see pretty straight forward NW (last 7 hours)...with the last two frames more WNW'ish around 305.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
i find it interesting that uLL North of danielle moved slightly North today.
is that another weaker ULL to her WNW dropping SW'ward?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
is that another weaker ULL to her WNW dropping SW'ward?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED.
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED.
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.
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