ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Brent]

AL, 07, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 143N, 315W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, M,

[ROCK]

looked too good not to be Earl..that was a fast upgrade

[Frank2]

1986 we had hurricane flights? nice...didnt know that....

You're joking, right???

NOAA flew research flights long before the P-3's were put into service in 1977, and actually from what I was often told the old DC-6 was making eyewall penetrations since the 1960's (years before NOAA existed)...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/stormfury_era.html

Oops - back to the future Earl (guess he's a bit EARL-y - lol)...

[ROCK]

1986 we had hurricane flights? nice...didnt know that....

You're joking, right???

NOAA flew research flights before the P-3's were put into service in 1977, and actually from what I was often told the old DC-6 was making eyewall penetrations since the 1960's (years before NOAA existed)...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/stormfury_era.html

Dude....I was 12 in 1986....

[Frank2]

Ouch - I was 12 - once...

LOL

P.S. Now we're really back to Earl-y...

P.P.S. As others have said, it looks even better organized that Danielle - I agree, though as we know the earl-ier the increase in intensity the more likely the recurve...

[cycloneye]

NRL already has EARL at their header.

NRL Navy site

Code: Select all

2010 Season Storms
All  Active  Year 

Atlantic


07L.EARL
06L.DANIELLE
 


[cycloneye]

From this afternoons AFD of San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE DANIELLE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MAIN EFFECT FROM
DANIELLE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE LATEST GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN MAY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY CLOSER PATH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT PATH SO MANY DAYS OUT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

[x-y-no]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

And incidentally, the NE corner of the Hebert box.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

And incidentally, the NE corner of the Hebert box.

Yes, named after Paul Hebert, former NHC employee. I sat next to him at one NHC conference 4-5 years ago:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Most hurricanes that went on to strike Florida from the east moved through the "Hebert Box". However, the corollary is not true - that most hurricanes which moved through the box struck Florida.

[AdamFirst]

I'm not a believer in the Hebert Box. Seems like superstition, coincidence between storms.
To each their own, however.

[Vortex]

Wxman, At the moment what do you expect in terms of direction when Earl nears either side of 20/60?

[Ivanhater]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

It is interesting to note though how the Euro has been shifting further South and West each run..(in 12 hour increments)

12z run yesterday 144 hours



00z run last night

120 hours



12z run today 96 hours

[Ikester]

sorry, they have not updated the cone yet but they have updated some of the info on the NHC site already.

[wxman57]

I'm not a believer in the Hebert Box. Seems like superstition, coincidence between storms.
To each their own, however.

The Hebert Box is not a theory to believe or not - it's a fact. It doesn't predict the future, it just characterizes the past storm tracks. However, it can be used as a potential indicator for Florida hit (or miss). But like I said, the corollary is not true. Just because a storm enters the box doesn't mean it's going to hit Florida.

[Ikester]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252029
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED
BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST
POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON
TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AdamFirst]

The Hebert Box is not a theory to believe or not - it's a fact. It doesn't predict the future, it just characterizes the past storm tracks. However, it can be used as a potential indicator for Florida hit (or miss). But like I said, the corollary is not true. Just because a storm enters the box doesn't mean it's going to hit Florida.

That's why I'm not much of a believer of it. Some posters on here I've seen treat it as bulletproof.

[Aric Dunn]

I love this little sentence from the 5pm discussion.

" LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE."

[fd122]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

Wouldn't mind some rain from this. Cistern tanks are almost empty.

[Ikester]