2010 WPAC Season

[Typhoon Hunter]

That ECMWF has like 2 storms coming to Okinawa in a period of 4 days..The 28th and the 1rst anyone else see that or have any input on that?

Nothing major heading your way according to today's 00z, just a couple of LPAs one of which looks to intensifying before passing north of Taiwan into China.

No idea what it's doing with the typhoon in the SCS which forms south of Hong Kong then explodes into a midget typhoon in Gulf of Tonkin. Can't really see that happening!

[Typhoon10]

That ECMWF has like 2 storms coming to Okinawa in a period of 4 days..The 28th and the 1rst anyone else see that or have any input on that?

Nothing major heading your way according to today's 00z, just a couple of LPAs one of which looks to intensifying before passing north of Taiwan into China.

No idea what it's doing with the typhoon in the SCS which forms south of Hong Kong then explodes into a midget typhoon in Gulf of Tonkin. Can't really see that happening!

TH, again quoting HKO, are you referring to the system they see in 72hrs which just sprouts near Hainan they moves towards HK? That is wierd, never expect something like that to happen? it was strange when we had a STS go past HK a few years ago then track back

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[Typhoon Hunter]

TH, again quoting HKO, are you referring to the system they see in 72hrs which just sprouts near Hainan they moves towards HK? That is wierd, never expect something like that to happen? it was strange when we had a STS go past HK a few years ago then track back

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

No, I don't look at that model. The system depicted in ECMWF (which is no longer in the latest run) moved in opposite direction from HK to Hainan island.

[KWT]

Does anybody know what the ACE was for the WPAC in 1998?

[StormingB81]

Doesn't look like a good day to be out on the water in the WPAC today..lol Pretty stormy out there

[Chacor]

Does anybody know what the ACE was for the WPAC in 1998?

The JMA's data gives an ACE of 108.7275 ten thousand square knots. In comparison, 2004 had an ACE (JMA data again) of 397.65 ten thousand square knots.

JTWC data gives an ACE of 152.4675 in 1998.

[Chacor]

We currently have three active tropical cyclones in the NWP.

Amazingly, including today, this has only happened for a total of ten days since September 1, 2002. (2002 saw 7 days with three existing TCs, the last of which on Aug 31.)

The last time this happened was 30 September 2009, when we had Melor, Parma and Ketsana. In striking similarity to the current conditions, Melor and Parma were involved in DCI.

It did not happen in 2008; the last time before Sept 2009 was October 5-6, 2007 with Podul, Haiyan and Krosa; it also occurred for four days from Aug 6-9, 2006 with Bopha, Saomai and Maria; on Sept. 26, 2005 with Longwang, Damrey and Saola; and on August 20, 2004 with Aere, Chaba and Megi.

[StormingB81]

SO with 1 more invest looking fair and could possibly be a TD here in teh coming days and with 3 back to back storms which brings the count to 9.how do you think this season will finish? You think we can atleast hit 20 or you think we will stay in the teens?

[Chacor]

1998, which had 16 named storms, had only four NS by September 1, so we're ahead.

[Infdidoll]

September and October were the busiest months of 1998...and produced 3 super typhoons.


Name/Title Classification Typhoon Class Dates Intensity Pressure
01W tropical depression July 6 - July 11 35 mph 1002 hPa
Nichole tropical storm July 7 - July 12 40 mph 998 hPa
03W tropical storm July 22 - July 26 35 mph 1004 hPa
Otto typhoon Category 3 August 1 - August 5 75 mph 970 hPa
Penny severe tropical storm August 5 - August 12 60 mph 955 hPa
Rex typhoon Category 4 August 22 - September 9 85 mph 955 hPa
07W tropical depression August 31 - September 6 35 mph 1002 hPa
Stella severe tropical storm September 10 - September 16 70 mph 965 hPa
09W tropical depression September 12 - September 14 35 mph 998 hPa
Todd super typhoon Category 4 September 14 - September 20 85 mph 955 hPa
Vicki typhoon Category 2 September 16 - September 23 85 mph 960 hPa
12W tropical depression September 16 - September 19 35 mph 1000 hPa
Waldo tropical storm September 18 - September 21 50 mph 994 hPa
Yanni typhoon Category 1 September 24 - October 2 75 mph 965 hPa
15W tropical depression October 2 - October 5 35 mph 1000 hPa
16W tropical depression October 4 - October 7 35 mph 1008 hPa
17W tropical depression October 5 - October 7 35 mph 1000 hPa
Zeb super typhoon Category 5 October 7 - October 18 125 mph 900 hPa
Alex tropical depression October 10 - October 12 30 mph 1000 hPa
Babs super typhoon Category 4 October 11 - October 27 100 mph 940 hPa
Chip tropical storm November 10 - November 15 50 mph 994 hPa
Dawn tropical storm November 16 - November 20 40 mph 998 hPa
Elvis tropical storm November 23 - November 26 45 mph 992 hPa
Faith typhoon Category 2 December 7 - December 14 75 mph 970 hPa
Gil tropical storm December 8 - December 13 45 mph 992 hPa
26W tropical depression December 17 - December 19 30 mph 1002 hPa
27W tropical depression December 19 - December 22 35 mph 1000 hpa

[Typhoon10]

Hong Kong so far seems to have avoid any storms this year. Earlier they went West towards Hainan/Vietnam, now they all seem to be heading upto Okinawa/Japan/Korea.

It appears as if we are magnets with same pole pushing them away.

However it will be interesting to see how September and October pan out.

[Typhoon10]

Am hearing that possibly Hong Kong could get some activity in the next 7 days with a LPA coming towards us.

Lets wait and see

[StormingB81]

JMA has a tropical depression South of Okinawa..East of Tawain that is stationary however noone else has anything on it.

[supercane]

Apart from Meranti (11W or 1010) not much in the WestPac, largely due to this large TUTT.

Image courtesy ITOP.

[Typhoon10]

So, does that look like its it for the 2010 season in WPAC? We are nearly into October and everything seems to have quietened down?

[Chacor]

Uh... considering Okinawa received a direct hit from a typhoon not too long ago, and Typhoon Fanapi's just killed over 50 in China, and we still have an active typhoon out there, I totally cannot understand your post. If anything, we're just getting into the meat of the season.

[Typhoon10]

Uh... considering Okinawa received a direct hit from a typhoon not too long ago, and Typhoon Fanapi's just killed over 50 in China, and we still have an active typhoon out there, I totally cannot understand your post. If anything, we're just getting into the meat of the season.

Ok, will trust your judgment as the expert. I am aware that a TY has just brushed past Tokyo, we had Fanapi. But recently we had a lot of invests popping up, but nothing on the radar at present. So was stating as of TODAY, i dont see anything brewing and as we get in October doesnt it generally quieten down?

[Chacor]

nothing on the radar at present

Typhoon Malakas is still active.

as we get in October doesnt it generally quieten down?

Activity tends to fall off slightly (from 1996-2005 we had no more than three storms each year in October) , but intensities are generally higher. So whether it "quietens down" is rather subjective:

Activity in October, 1990 through 2009 (includes formations in September):
1990: 4 storms (strongest storm's lowest pressure: 950 hPa)
1991: 4 storms (925 hPa)
1992: 6 storms (915 hPa)
1993: 5 storms (915 hPa)
1994: 6 storms (910 hPa - two storms)
1995: 7 storms (910 hPa)
1996: 3 storms (950 hPa)
1997: 3 storms (905 hPa - two storms; the other bottomed out at 910)
1998: 2 storms (900 hPa)
1999: 2 storms (955 hPa)
2000: 3 storms (960 hPa)
2001: 3 storms (925 hPa)
2002: 3 storms (930 hPa, which occurred in Sept)
2003: 3 storms (930 hPa)
2004: 3 storms (920 hPa)
2005: 3 storms (930 hPa)
2006: 5 storms (920 hPa)
2007: 7 storms (925 hPa)
2008: 3 storms (905 hPa, which occurred in Sept)
2009: 5 storms (910 hPa)

That's a 20-year mean of four storms in October.

At the moment we have 12 named storms. Even 1998, whilst a slow season, had a powerhouse Typhoon Zeb in October.

[StormingB81]

Lately it is starting to remind me of the begining of the year.....So many INVEST's yet nothing making of it.

[HurricaneBill]

So far, no super typhoons have formed. This is the latest the WPAC has gone without a super typhoon since 1988. During that year, there wasn't a super typhoon until Nelson became one on October 4th.

Other years that had their first super typhoon beyond this point:

1985: Dot (October 16th)
1984: Vanessa (October 25th)
1978: Rita (October 22nd)
1974: No super typhoons formed, although Gloria may have possibly reached super typhoon intensity prior to striking the Philippines in mid-November.