ATL: EARL - Models
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blazess556
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
Model trend is west on Earl today. Looks like it scoots just north of the Leewards as the ridge builds in to the north headed for the Bahamas
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Hmmm thats a real close call, much further to the south and it'd probably totally miss the connection there.
The further west Danielle gets the greater the chance of Earl getting lifted out, strange logic but that is the case from what I've observed in the models in the last couple of days and there is a reason synoptically speaking for it, though I'm far too tired to try and explain it lol!
IF the 18z happened my gut instinct is it'd probably end up getting VERY close to the east coast...
The further west Danielle gets the greater the chance of Earl getting lifted out, strange logic but that is the case from what I've observed in the models in the last couple of days and there is a reason synoptically speaking for it, though I'm far too tired to try and explain it lol!
IF the 18z happened my gut instinct is it'd probably end up getting VERY close to the east coast...
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
West of the longitud of Bermuda (64W)
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Weak upper disturbance coming through the eastern states, its weak but its enough I'd imagine to turn Earl away to the north by say 192hrs on this run, lets see what happens!
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
The EURO has Danielle heading NE much sooner than the NHC track and I believe that allows this ridge to build back in pushing Earl west and missing the weakness.
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Evil Jeremy
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Yeah a west shift BUT the upper troughing is still solid, its the pattern that needs to shift really, its real difficult to get a east coast threat when there are upper troughs moving through every 2-3 days like they are at the moment, the pattern is just too progressive really and with the upper high placed where it is on the models, even a slight upper trough would do the trick, as it does on the 18z GFS....
Still the trend is for it to get a little further west...
Still the trend is for it to get a little further west...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ConvergenceZone
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Evil Jeremy
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ConvergenceZone wrote:I thought Fiona suppose to be behind Earl? I don't see it on that map....
Fiona never really gets going on that run, and the wave tries to close a few times but keeps on opening back up and follows Earl closely.
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Its the very weak system at 60W CZ....gets sheared out by the stronger Earl on this run.
Enough on the models though to suggest at least one of the two of those systems get close to say 70W...and from then it all depends on how progressive the upper pattern is aloft...IMO it still looks more then good enough to shift the system safely away but its close enough to need watching for sure!
Enough on the models though to suggest at least one of the two of those systems get close to say 70W...and from then it all depends on how progressive the upper pattern is aloft...IMO it still looks more then good enough to shift the system safely away but its close enough to need watching for sure!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ConvergenceZone
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yeah a west shift BUT the upper troughing is still solid, its the pattern that needs to shift really, its real difficult to get a east coast threat when there are upper troughs moving through every 2-3 days like they are at the moment, the pattern is just too progressive really and with the upper high placed where it is on the models, even a slight upper trough would do the trick, as it does on the 18z GFS....
Still the trend is for it to get a little further west...
Yea, the amount of troughs coming down is amazing. I guess that means it's going to be a brutal and stormy
fall and winter for the USA, if they are coming down already....
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Re: Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Yea, the amount of troughs coming down is amazing. I guess that means it's going to be a brutal and stormy
fall and winter for the USA, if they are coming down already....
The thing is there IS ridging but is just too far SW and its actually helping to put systems out to sea, if we ever see that shift out to the NE over the next 20 days or so of the CV season thats when large alarm bells should ring in peoples heads...and I'll be the first to highlight it I can assure you!
The 18z HWRF/GFDL will indeed be interesting, at the very least we have another real threat to Bermuda again...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
The models are trending west but not one of them is showing a landfall which indicates persistent troughs. If there was uncetainty you would think at least one model would go west? The latest runs are making Earl more interesting for sure!
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