ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[plasticup]

As much as it would suck for Earl to hit the Caribbean, a recurve would give Bermuda it's second hurricane in a week.

[Houstonia]

Can someone tell me which storm it was that hit SE Texas that started out in the same general area that Earl is in now? No, I do NOT think it's headed our way, but it is interesting that only one storm came all the way through the Gulf to hit near Houston. Here is the image from Wunderground.

thanks.

[CrazyC83]

Can someone tell me which storm it was that hit SE Texas that started out in the same general area that Earl is in now? No, I do NOT think it's headed our way, but it is interesting that only one storm came all the way through the Gulf to hit near Houston. Here is the image from Wunderground.

thanks.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _climo.gif

I believe that is the 1915 hurricane?

[plasticup]

Can someone tell me which storm it was that hit SE Texas that started out in the same general area that Earl is in now?

That would be the 1915 Galveston hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

yes

[chrisjslucia]

You have to be kidding. Go back and take a look how far south and west the Euro moved in just 24 hours. There is no lesser threat to the Islands at all right now. In fact models have been trending TOWARD the Islands

.

Ivanhater, thanks for this robust observation. Those non qualified punters, such as myself, who read these posts have to learn overtime the personalities of the posters to make a judgement as to who to put their faith in. KWT is obviously knowledgeable but is pretty set in terms of current conditions in his perspective of recurve and fish for the current season (no offence meant KWT). From an islanders point of view I found the change in track forecast for Earl a major shock this evening. How much further south can the track go? Those of us who remember how Ivan dipped and then wiped out Grenada know the models are only so much of a comfort or warning. Earl is begining to look dire for the Leewards. For us Windwarders, the concern is the next big wave (Fiona possibly) and how much of a westerly course this will take. 24 hours ago, Earl seemed a safe bet to head WNW and then out to sea. Modesty in statement making and forecasting may be a virtue worth considering without compromising the level of debate. Having said that, I should have sorted out putting up my ply shutters before now!

[Houstonia]

[quote="HURAKAN"]yes

Thanks for the quick answers y'all...

[cycloneye]

chrisjslucia, I am glad to see another member from the Caribbean. We have a thread for those who live in the Caribbean / Central America to post their local weather observations at U.S. & Caribbean Weather forum so go and visit it when you can. Link is below this at my signature.

[Evil Jeremy]

After looking through the latest model runs, I think the NHC will move the cone a little more north for days 3-5 but also further west.

[supercane]

Along with the lower Dvorak classification from SAB, this ASCAT image from NRL suggests somewhat poor organization. Although the swath was west of the NHC position, the winds around the western periphery of Earl (particularly the lack of NW winds on the immediate SW side) are not that suggestive of a tight LLCC. The best interpretation may be that the center is still rather broad.

edited to fix text and image

[srainhoutx]

Along with the lower Dvorak classification from SAB, this ASCAT image from NRL suggests somewhat poor organization. Although the swath was west of the NHC position, the winds around the western periphery of Earl (particularly the lack of NW winds on the immediate SW side) are not that suggestive of a tight LLCC. The best interpretation may be that the center is still rather broad.

Good points. This may take a bit longer to consolidate IMO.

[cycloneye]

Along with the lower Dvorak classification from SAB, this ASCAT image from NRL suggests somewhat poor organization. Although the swath was west of the NHC position, the winds around the western periphery of Earl (particularly the lack of NW winds on the immediate SW side) are not that suggestive of a tight LLCC. The best interpretation may be that the center is still rather broad.

Good points. This may take a bit longer to consolidate IMO.

And what happens when systems take time to consolidate?

[Kingarabian]

Along with the lower Dvorak classification from SAB, this ASCAT image from NRL suggests somewhat poor organization. Although the swath was west of the NHC position, the winds around the western periphery of Earl (particularly the lack of NW winds on the immediate SW side) are not that suggestive of a tight LLCC. The best interpretation may be that the center is still rather broad.

Good points. This may take a bit longer to consolidate IMO.

And what happens when systems take time to consolidate?

They move more West?

[plasticup]

Good points. This may take a bit longer to consolidate IMO.

And what happens when systems take time to consolidate?

They dig into strong ridges and recurve in record time!!!!!! No? I didn't think so

[supercane]

Prettier version of above ASCAT pass shows somewhat of a mess:

[abajan]

As much as it would suck for Earl to hit the Caribbean, a recurve would give Bermuda it's second hurricane in a week.

That’s assuming Bermuda gets hit by the first hurricane. The prediction by most models right now is for the center of Danielle to pass the island on the right, putting them on the weaker side of it. Of course, this is not cast in stone.

[Fego]

Which source has the most accurate position at this time? Because I read 14.3N, then 14.6N.

[supercane]

Official positions are those given by NHC in their advisories. NHC does also input information into the ATCF, and you'll see us post info from there to get a read on what the NHC will do in their next advisories.

[Dean4Storms]

No doubt if Earl struggles to organize it should head more westward and could even get more WSW movement as it reaches the SW portion of the Sub-tropical ridge.

[cycloneye]

A little less threat to the Northern Leewards but still some of the islands are in the cone.