ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Forecast to reach Category 2 now..

[gatorcane]

Been looking alot at the models and synoptics. Chances are this one recurves and passes just far enough NE of the Leewards to not pose any issues. I think it also recurves well east of the United States and even Bahamas. Danielle is certainly going to help leave a weakness - but even if Danielle were not there, the pattern is not conducive for the next couple of weeks for CONUS hits from the east mainly because of the fact any kind of ridging that builds in across the Western Atlantic is going to be ephemeral at best with shortwaves eroding the ridge every 3-5 days or so. The ECMWF and GFS also show a recurve at this point (as best as we can extrapolate), and are in good agreement. Models can change, but I am just saying that I think it will recurve just like Danielle.

[Texas Snowman]

Me and myself, I'm thinking that Earl is going to be a problem for someone other than fish...

[TwisterFanatic]

Chances are this one recurves and passes just far enough NE of the Leewards to not pose any issues.

How? If anything models are showing an increasing threat to the islands with todays SW trend.

[TexasF6]

Earl looks like trouble for CONUS

[Blown Away]

Looks like Earl is dealing with some dry air and looks a little ragged rate now. Moving maybe slightly S of due W??

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Evil Jeremy]

A struggling system is not good for hopes of a recurve.

[StormTracker]

A struggling system is not good for hopes of a recurve.

Yeah EJ, I'm with you on that! If Wxman57 is right about Danielle getting to CAT3 status(which I think so also), what effect will that have on Earl?

[StormTracker]

A struggling system is not good for hopes of a recurve.

Yeah EJ, I'm with you on that! If Wxman57 is right about Danielle getting to CAT3 status(which I think so also), what effect will that have on Earl?

I just found the answer to my question in the newly updated "Active Tropical Systems And Invests" graphic!!!

[ROCK]

defintely weaker than before....dry and stable surrounding environment mostly the culprit...defintly a broad circulation than earlier...

[Cyclenall]

Is anyone else finding the discussions by the NHC on Earl to be a bit unusual? Things like this:

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

Sounds unofficial and more like a posting on a message board which I don't mind but it's different then usual.

[Ivanhater]

Is anyone else finding the discussions by the NHC on Earl to be a bit unusual? Things like this:

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

Sounds unofficial and more like a posting on a message board which I don't mind but it's different then usual.

That is the official discussion from the NHC.

[cycloneye]

Here is the link to the 5 PM EDT discussion by forecaster Avila.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al ... .002.shtml?

[Cyclenall]

Is anyone else finding the discussions by the NHC on Earl to be a bit unusual? Things like this:

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

Sounds unofficial and more like a posting on a message board which I don't mind but it's different then usual.

That is the official discussion from the NHC.

I know. I was pointing out that the style of the discussion was different.

[fci]

Is anyone else finding the discussions by the NHC on Earl to be a bit unusual? Things like this:

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

Sounds unofficial and more like a posting on a message board which I don't mind but it's different then usual.

That is the official discussion from the NHC.

I kind of find it refreshing when the forecaster actually "discusses" in the discussion.
While it shows some level of vulnerability in actually saying "let's see what happens in the model cycle", I appreciate that the forecaster is showing that they are human!

[pricetag56]

do the same people who said this season is gonna have 10 storms or less still wanna roll with that idea.

[Cyclenall]

I kind of find it refreshing when the forecaster actually "discusses" in the discussion.
While it shows some level of vulnerability in actually saying "let's see what happens in the model cycle", I appreciate that the forecaster is showing that they are human!

That's exactly what I'm trying to say .

do the same people who said this season is gonna have 10 storms or less still wanna roll with that idea.

I didn't see any who said that. They might have been on to something though if we were still in mid-August when it looked more like a strong El Nino was in place than what is supposedly to be one of the top active seasons on record.

[supercane]

Dvorak classification from SAB back up to T2.5:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/0545 UTC 14.4N 34.9W T2.5/2.5 07L
25/2345 UTC 14.5N 32.7W T2.0/2.5 07L

[supercane]

Microwave 89GHz imagery from Aqua's AMSRE more reminiscent of a SW-to-NE oriented trough than the rapidly developing storm some thought this would be: