ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Chances are that if it's going east of the NHC now, that it'll probably take the recurve route east of Bermuda. The storm is located way to far east to even come close to land, even Bermuda should breath a sigh of relieve. A couple of days ago I believed that it could turn toward the coast, but now the recurve east of Bermuda is inevitable, at least to me.

[terrapintransit]

I'm sorry...but that is freaky looking..[/quote]

I was JUST going to post this lol. But you're right, it is. If only the models wouldn't stop flip flopping, or actually get into agreement with eachother. Otherwise I still don't have a clue where it'll go.[/quote]


I'm not sure anybody has a clue at this point. How could you with model support like that!?!

[ConvergenceZone]

Why are there two models bringing so far west? That's impossible for this system to do, it's clearly going east of Bermuda. Even its current movement indicates that it's going east of Bermuda, probably by over a couple hundred miles.

Because the models are obviously seeing something you are not.....Not saying they are right, but they are obviously seeing something.

[ConvergenceZone]

Chances are that if it's going east of the NHC now, that it'll probably take the recurve route east of Bermuda. The storm is located way to far east to even come close to land, even Bermuda should breath a sigh of relieve. A couple of days ago I believed that it could turn toward the coast, but now the recurve east of Bermuda is inevitable, at least to me.

I don't see how you can confidently say that "Bermuda should breathe a sign of relief". When you look at the latest track, you can tell that it's fairly close to Bermuda. Not to mention that they are in the cone....I just don't see how you can say that Bermuda is in the clear...

[artist]

Chances are that if it's going east of the NHC now, that it'll probably take the recurve route east of Bermuda. The storm is located way to far east to even come close to land, even Bermuda should breath a sigh of relieve. A couple of days ago I believed that it could turn toward the coast, but now the recurve east of Bermuda is inevitable, at least to me.

it is irresponsible of you to make such a prediction when the NHC won't even make that call yet. You need to add the disclaimer to such a post. jmho.

[plasticup]

Because the models are obviously seeing something you are not.....Not saying they are right, but they are obviously seeing something.

They are seeing the enormous EC ridge evaporate for no apparent reason. I could see things like that too, but it would take some pharmaceuticals.

[ronjon]

Ok we now have the 2 navy models (NOGAPs and GFDN), GFDL, and now the UKMET turning Danielle west while HWRF and the GFS move north or NE. Wonder how the NHC will respond on their track now? Probably keep it the same and hope for some model consensus soon.

[cpdaman]

Because the models are obviously seeing something you are not.....Not saying they are right, but they are obviously seeing something.

They are seeing the enormous EC ridge evaporate for no apparent reason. I could see things like that too, but it would take some pharmaceuticals.

i think they are seeing the EC Ridge retrograde and weaken back toward the ohio valley allowing more space for danielle to push west

[cycloneye]

Updated 00z run of the SHIP increases to major cane in 36 hours.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 260128
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0128 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100826 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  0000   100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.0N  53.6W   23.2N  55.7W   24.3N  57.2W   25.3N  58.8W
BAMD    22.0N  53.6W   23.8N  55.6W   25.2N  57.4W   26.3N  59.4W
BAMM    22.0N  53.6W   23.4N  55.6W   24.7N  57.2W   25.7N  59.1W
LBAR    22.0N  53.6W   23.9N  55.2W   25.2N  57.1W   26.5N  58.7W
SHIP        85KTS          92KTS          97KTS         101KTS
DSHP        85KTS          92KTS          97KTS         101KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  0000   100829  0000   100830  0000   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.6N  60.3W   29.3N  62.6W   31.5N  63.2W   34.8N  61.3W
BAMD    27.5N  61.3W   30.0N  62.9W   33.6N  62.4W   37.4N  60.8W
BAMM    26.9N  60.9W   29.3N  62.4W   32.7N  61.6W   37.1N  59.8W
LBAR    27.8N  60.2W   31.1N  61.3W   34.0N  57.6W   34.4N  50.3W
SHIP       101KTS          97KTS          87KTS          73KTS
DSHP       101KTS          97KTS          87KTS          73KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.0N LONCUR =  53.6W DIRCUR = 319DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  19.3N LONM12 =  51.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  17.9N LONM24 =  48.9W
WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   70KT
CENPRS =  975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  105NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 120NM


[TheDreamTraveler]

They've shifted it slightly East since they feel more confident with the N and NE models, even though the others want to take it West

.

[plasticup]

Because the models are obviously seeing something you are not.....Not saying they are right, but they are obviously seeing something.

They are seeing the enormous EC ridge evaporate for no apparent reason. I could see things like that too, but it would take some pharmaceuticals.

i think they are seeing the EC Ridge retrograde and weaken back toward the ohio valley allowing more space for danielle to push west

(that'll teach me to run my mouth )

[A1A]

NOGAPS 132 Hours

[A1A]

NOGAPS 144 Hours

[ConvergenceZone]

On the map that the dreamtraveler posted above, it says "H" which is obviously for hurricane, and I know I've seen "T" on that map when it's a tropical storm, but what is "M"?

[cycloneye]

On the map that the dreamtraveler posted above, it says "H" which is obviously for hurricane, and I know I've seen "T" on that map when it's a tropical storm, but what is "M"?

Major cane.

[ConvergenceZone]

On the map that the dreamtraveler posted above, it says "H" which is obviously for hurricane, and I know I've seen "T" on that map when it's a tropical storm, but what is "M"?

Major cane.

Ahhh okay thanx Luis, didn't even think of that. I guess I've never noticed they used that on the map before....

[angelwing]

Okay, so now I'm starting to get a bit concerned here...

You and me both...

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like a quick recurve East of Bermuda on the 00z GFS.

[blazess556]

Looks like a quick recurve East of Bermuda on the 00z GFS.

thats better if we want to get earl further west.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like a quick recurve East of Bermuda on the 00z GFS.

thats better if we want to get earl further west.

Who does want Earl to get further west?