ATL: EARL - Models

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Evil Jeremy
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#301 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:07 pm

I don't know if this is true, but I read that the BAM models, being the first to run with new data, are a good indicator of what to expect on the next run. Is that true?
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Re:

#302 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:10 pm

stormchazer wrote:27.9 but we have a force field.

Seriously, we have time to watch Earl. The runs are still a bit far out to have a great deal of faith, but the trend does give you pause.


wasn't lakeland the epicenter in florida for all the storms in 04?
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Re: Re:

#303 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:13 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The ECMWF and GFS have not shown an island hit yet, though they have gotten a bit closer today. After the islands, both have consistently been showing that recurve starting. I do think this one is going to make it closer to the islands but still has a good chance of passing by to the NE like most Cape Verde systems do. When the ECMWF and GFS stop showing a NW bend into the weakness at the end of the run, here in Florida I may start paying attention. As of now I don't have much of a worry about Earl for South Florida or Florida at all for that matter.


Gator, go back and take a look at the GFS 500MB charts. Barely makes the weakness to recurve. The ridge is constantly trying to build over it the entire time and Earl barely makes it out. Taking into account model error in this range, I'm gonna sit back on this one for another day or so before I feel confident about anything...


IMO, if Danny scoots out faster than predicted and Earl stays shallow and on the west track it will be a close call for the NE Caribbean. Danny and Earl looking ragged over the past few hours and Danny looks east of the forecast points. Danny is the one to watch over the next 48 hours and Earl will likely move almost due west for the next 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#304 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:34 pm

Have to agree with Ivan on this one....zero confidence before I jump on the left or right bandwagon right now....though I am leaning towards the more westward solution just by looking at the current appearance of Earl...
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Re: Re:

#305 Postby feederband » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:40 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
stormchazer wrote:27.9 but we have a force field.

Seriously, we have time to watch Earl. The runs are still a bit far out to have a great deal of faith, but the trend does give you pause.


wasn't lakeland the epicenter in florida for all the storms in 04?



We were beat up by them all in Lakeland...But just a little NE of here closer to Winter Haven I think is where they all tracked though ...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#306 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:47 pm

0z GFS rolling....out 24hrs

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#307 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:51 pm

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#308 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:54 pm

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#309 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:57 pm

hadnt really looked at steering today but look at this low level flow....sw....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#310 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:11 pm

Ridge to the north looks slightly stronger on this run so far, but not by much (with my untrained eyes).
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#311 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:15 pm

90 hours. See the ridge trying to build under Danielle..It's gonna be close

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#312 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:25 pm

:uarrow: The 00z nam also reflected the ridge at the 500mb level developing at the end of the run which was a first.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#313 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:26 pm

Weakness is wide open for Earl to follow Danielle

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#314 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:31 pm

Did Earl take what's left behind him, with him?

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#315 Postby Fego » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:32 pm

Wide open and he is gone!...
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#316 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:34 pm

Might be interesting to see if any ridge can fill back in after the trough/Danielle leave and turn Earl back west/wnw.
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#317 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:34 pm

Interesting that the 00Z GFS does not develop the wave exiting Africa into Fiona.
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#318 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:47 pm

Wow, stunned silence here now as people are probably in disbelief that all of this activity will pass fairly harmlessly to our east. It is kind of remarkable isn't it?
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Re:

#319 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:49 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Wow, stunned silence here now as people are probably in disbelief that all of this activity will pass fairly harmlessly to our east. It is kind of remarkable isn't it?


Just dont see it right now...might change my mind after tomorrow....way too many variables for Earl right now that can influence track...
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Re:

#320 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:49 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Wow, stunned silence here now as people are probably in disbelief that all of this activity will pass fairly harmlessly to our east. It is kind of remarkable isn't it?

That. Or, maybe its because its nearing 1AM on the EC. Also, just one model run doesn't garuntee that it will miss the CONUS. Likely? Very, at least IMO, but never count a scenario out, especially because of a single model run.

I once read (I think) that the models trend East in the 00z and 06z runs, and trend West during the 12z and 18z runs. Any truth to that?
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