WPAC: Invest 90W

[StormingB81]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

RIght wherre 96w was is now 90w...lol

[StormingB81]

This storm looks liek it is blowing up quick but can it hold itself together

[supercane]

With 99W and now 90W, I think JTWC finally picked the right two areas along the reverse-oriented monsoon trough to focus on.

Vis:


IR:


HKO analysis as of 00Z showing the orientation of the reverse-oriented monsoon trough extending from remnants of Mindulle to the South China Sea to 90W to 99W:

[supercane]

Circulation present, but winds not particularly strong:

[StormingB81]

How do the steering current work..where do you think it may head?

[supercane]

First the disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Storms that form in a reverse-oriented monsoon trough generally move northward. Here are some recent runs of the GFS showing a northward motion:
And the CIMSS low-level steering product:

[Typhoon10]

Another invest! Dont think have seen 4 Invests on NRL in my short time.

Surely, something will become of one or more of them

[supercane]

Not sure I would agree. The JTWC appears to have liberal criteria to declare an invest, and there is weak model support for development.

[StormingB81]

looks like 90 and 99 are fighting over eachother. The both dont look as good as a little bit ago....I dunno though maybe they will merge and make 91w. I am just saying since in the last like 3 days we have gone through 5 invest all for about the same systems comming and going.

[supercane]

90W and 99W are too far away from each other to be interfering with each respective system's development chances. The issue has been that JTWC has been trying to pick which spot along the monsoon trough will develop, and that no one area has been persistent enough to go on to the next step.

Microwave from earlier:

[StormingB81]

just a wait and see type game here.

[supercane]

JMA 00Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 124E WNW 10 KT.

PAGASA still concerned about area:

Weather Advisory No. 02
FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 26 August 2010
The Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 140 km Southeast of Tuguegarao City (17.0°N 123.0°E). This weather system is expected to bring occasional to frequent rains over the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.

The next advisory will be issued tomorrow morning and the updates will be incorporated in the regular issuance of public weather forecasts.

If this does continue westward into Luzon development will have to wait until it reaches the South China China, although this one may go into the Luzon strait.

[supercane]

Vis loop:


Latest microwave:

[supercane]

If JMA's 12Z analysis is correct:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 17N 123E WEST 10 KT.

then 90W looks disorganized on IR:

[supercane]

91W now appears to be the dominant circulation in this vicinity of the monsoon trough, leaving 90W in the wind.