ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Brent]

Best track up to 40 kt, 45 mph

AL, 07, 2010082606, , BEST, 0, 150N, 341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, M,

[supercane]

06Z best track update from ATCF increases Earl to 40kt:
AL, 07, 2010082606, , BEST, 0, 150N, 341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, M,
AL, 07, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 147N, 328W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1011, 200, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, M, 12, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50

Edited to note concurrent posting of best track data

[Blown Away]

FROM THE 5AM DISCO: IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

Looking at the satellite I wouldn't be surprised if the center reformed south. Most of the energy is south of the Best Track.

[KWT]

Looks a little on the linear side right now I have to be honest but I can understand upping it to 40kts its looking a bit better over the last few hours.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/0545 UTC 14.4N 34.9W T2.5/2.5 EARL
25/2345 UTC 14.5N 32.7W T2.0/2.5 07L

[Gustywind]

Discussion from San Juan PR
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
EARL...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THEN...PASSES AROUND 550 TO
650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SAINT THOMAS. BANDS OF MOISTURE
INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
PROVIDING INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT
THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENTS FORECAST FOR DANIELLE AND EARL...BUT THE TRACK OF
EARL WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS DEVIATIONS WOULD
DEFINITELY INDICATE CHANGES FOR US. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE FIRST
WHOLE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A THIRD TROPICAL SYSTEM GENERATING OUT OF
ACTIVITY THAT MOVED OFF OF AFRICA YESTERDAY IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
AT THIS TIME BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE
SAME GENERAL PATH AS DANIELLE AND EARL.

&&
11/12

[OURAGAN]

Yes i think so and not at 15,2N like the NHC position, and a adjustment to the south and the left may be required

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 26, 2010 610 am EDT/510 am CDT

Discussion

Tropical Storm Earl:
Satellite imagery this morning indicated that Earl is becoming better organized and intensity estimates from satellite images show that Earl has 45 mph sustained winds. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Earl are very warm and wind shear is forecast to be low right through this weekend. So, intensification is likely and I expect Earl to be a hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday and to be approaching or at Category 3 strength by Tuesday morning.

Earl is currently tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 16 mph and this motion will continue right into Sunday. After Sunday, a little more of a turn to the northwest is possible as Earl tracks towards a break in the ridge of high pressure. The track model guidance is in agreement that Earl will track well north of the Leeward Islands early next week. With that said, any reformation to the south towards the deeper convection will have implications on the long range track, so all interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the forecast for Earl over the next few days.

Now, the other question you may have is will Earl strike the US East Coast?? In my opinion, I would say no. The reason why is because even though a ridge of high pressure tries to build in behind Danielle, the modeled upper level pattern over the Eastern United States shows a flow that would turn a storm north and northeast away from the US East Coast. With that said, I do expect Earl to track further west than Danielle and this hurricane poses a threat to Bermuda by about the middle of next week.

[gatorcane]

FROM THE 5AM DISCO: IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

Looking at the satellite I wouldn't be surprised if the center reformed south. Most of the energy is south of the Best Track.

Like Danielle, it won't matter unless it forms hundreds of miles south (which it is not going to). There will be a large break in the subtropical ridge it will hit starting by day 5. That will keep this well east of Florida and likely east of the CONUS. Should pass NE of the islands at a comfortable distance.

[Gustywind]

[TheBurn]

[plasticup]

Is anyone else finding the discussions by the NHC on Earl to be a bit unusual? Things like this:

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

Sounds unofficial and more like a posting on a message board which I don't mind but it's different then usual.

In the TCR for 2005's Hurricane Vince, Franklin wrote "the rain in Spain was mainly less than 2 inches, although 3.30 inches (84 mm) fell in the plain at Cordoba." Cracked me up.

I like it when they loosen up a little and show us their thought process. Avila is good for that.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Like Danielle, it won't matter unless it forms hundreds of miles south (which it is not going to). There will be a large break in the subtropical ridge it will hit starting by day 5. That will keep this well east of Florida and likely east of the CONUS. Should pass NE of the islands at a comfortable distance.

Yeah its a pretty easy forecast this one, though I suppose the far NE Islands do need to keep an eye on it just in case the system does take a little longer to bend up...but the recurve pattern looks like staying for Earl as well.

Track should be broadly the same as Danielle but maybe a touch to the west of where Danielle is tracking.

Looking a little linear at the moment still, but center IMO is south of where the NHC has it, down close to say 14.3N IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010082612, , BEST, 0, 148N, 354W, 40, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

A little bit south of the 5 AM position (15.2N)

[KWT]

Yeah its a bit to the south and I wouldn't be surprised if the center was just a touch further south then even that location but its certainly not above 15N yet.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1145 UTC 14.6N 36.3W T2.5/2.5 EARL

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any data. As such it should not be used for any purpose

Obviously the longer it stays below 15N the further west it could get. Still likely to recurve though.

[Fego]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Tried to reduce the movie size, hoping anybody have problems uploading the page.
I see SAL at Earls's right side but more interestin is that a center seems moving just below 15N at 300 or more. What do you guys think?

[KWT]

Yeah looks about right Fego, the models did prog it to gain a little latitude today getting upto say 16.5N then flattening out to just a little north of west out to about 55W when the curve begins to the NW.