Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK EXCEPT WHERE
TROPICAL STORM EARL PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED AS
HURRICANE DANIELLE MOVES NORTH NORTHWEST. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL JOIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN DANIELLE AND EARL UNTIL
EARL IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE CAN RETURN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS... AT 5 AM AST HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS AT 23.4
NORTH LATITUDE AND 54.9 WEST LONGITUDE AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS AT 15.2
NORTH AND 34.8 WEST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ALSO AT 14 KNOTS. A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM DANIELLE AND WILL PULL LOW PRESSURE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN DANIELLE AND EARL WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT. EARL WILL PULL A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30 NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND HURRICANE DANIELLE YIELDING SMALL SHOWERS OF
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COME ON
SHORE IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG MOST OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND
NORTHERN SAINT CROIX THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING A
SHIFT IN DIRECTION...HOWEVER...THAT NOW CARRIES THEM MORE
WESTWARD...WITH SUBSEQUENTLY LESS INCURSION OVER LAND. THIS MOISTURE
...AND EASTERLY FLOW...WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW WILL THEN BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT WILL INCREASE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND...TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS DURING THAT TIME. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
EARL...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THEN...PASSES AROUND 550 TO
650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SAINT THOMAS. BANDS OF MOISTURE
INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
PROVIDING INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT
THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENTS FORECAST FOR DANIELLE AND EARL...BUT THE TRACK OF
EARL WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS DEVIATIONS WOULD
DEFINITELY INDICATE CHANGES FOR US. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE FIRST
WHOLE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A THIRD TROPICAL SYSTEM GENERATING OUT OF
ACTIVITY THAT MOVED OFF OF AFRICA YESTERDAY IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
AT THIS TIME BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE
SAME GENERAL PATH AS DANIELLE AND EARL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THOUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH AND SCATTERED PASSING SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 26/12Z.
MORE CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED
FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES DUE TO WINDS FROM DANIELLE. SEAS MAY RISE AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF EARL FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA.

[Gustywind]

Latest on Tropical Storm Earl...


000
WTNT32 KNHC 260841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 34.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


000
WTNT42 KNHC 260848
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS
AROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE
STRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THE
TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS
WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO
BRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5.

THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.
A 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE
SUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK.
FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES
AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND
THE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 34.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 37.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.4N 40.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 43.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 52.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Models plots for Tropical Storm Earl

[Gustywind]

[chrisjslucia]

Could someone clarify the meaning of the following from the NHC - I'm trying to get clear whether this is meant to indicate they are forecasting hurricane conditions for 15N 59W or simply somewhere to the North of this point:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 21N E OF 57W TODAY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 15N E OF 59W SUN AND MON...

.TODAY...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER N
OF 21N E OF 57W. HIGHEST WINDS TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
NE SWELL. FROM 14N TO 17N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8
FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 14N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFT SE TONIGHT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N OF 19N SW TO W WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 19N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 20N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN N SWELL.
S OF 20N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...N OF 15N E OF 59W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT MON. N OF 15N W OF 59W N TO NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MON.
SEAS 5 TO 6 FT BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT MON. S OF 15N S TO SW WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT BUILDING 6 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL SUN
EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Could someone clarify the meaning of the following from the NHC - I'm trying to get clear whether this is meant to indicate they are forecasting hurricane conditions for 15N 59W or simply somewhere to the North of this point:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 21N E OF 57W TODAY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 15N E OF 59W SUN AND MON...

.TODAY...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER N
OF 21N E OF 57W. HIGHEST WINDS TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
NE SWELL. FROM 14N TO 17N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8
FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 14N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFT SE TONIGHT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N OF 19N SW TO W WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 19N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 20N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN N SWELL.
S OF 20N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...N OF 15N E OF 59W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT MON. N OF 15N W OF 59W N TO NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MON.
SEAS 5 TO 6 FT BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT MON. S OF 15N S TO SW WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT BUILDING 6 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL SUN
EVENING.

That warning is for marine interests for strong winds as EARL tracks close to the NE Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

From a friend of St Croix...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stcroix.shtml

- TS EARL Soon to Become a Hurricane
By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2010 22:36:28 -0500

Good Night, Folks in the Caribbean and Beyond,

At this moment we're probably all doing the jitterbug, wondering if Tropical Storm EARL plans to move closer to the islands. Some of the islands are already in the "cone of uncertainty". This is when we have to be most attentive. Storms are very unpredictable and EARL is aiming to become a hurricane in the next couple of days. There is nothing to prevent it from growing in intensity. What does that mean for us here? It means that we must take this seriously and keep an eye on it while we go about making those last minute preparations. It should have some kind of impact on us by Tuesday morning. The size of the impact depends on how close it gets to us. We have to use all the media at our disposal to follow the track of this system. Hopefully we can all let out a sigh of relief instead of battling with what could be a major hurricane. The sea temp. is in the 80's. Just today, while swimming, we were commenting on how very warm the sea felt. Here is an excerpt from my report: HURRICANE HUGO - A Night on St. Croix
"Scientists tell us that hurricanes get their energy from the warm sea; that the storm needs at least a 200 ft. depth of warm water in order to live. This water in turn is churned about, picked up, and lashed out with tremendous fury. The result of this is similar to a fire storm. The combination of hot air and salt water blowing at *245mph burned every living bit of flora on St. Croix. The islanders said it looked as if fire had swept over the land; when it was over, steam was emanating from some areas of the scourged land; war veterans said it was like a bombing raid at low altitude, and that it was worse than anything they had ever seen..... The destruction was terrible! Many trees were uprooted and bare, many of them hundreds of years old. Only a few remained standing, stark-naked and strange-looking in a place known for its abundant, rich, luscious vegetation." *The wind gauge at the airport broke at 245 mph.

All around the region the sea is warm enough to supply the fuel for all the storms that form off the coast of Africa. Are we prepared to handle the challenges? How can we not but take these storms seriously? Prepare well and God bless us all.

Isabel

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,wake up.Read this discussion.

FXCA62 TJSJ 261911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...STEERING DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO STEER DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW. WITH A NORTHERLY SEA
BREEZE STILL ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED EXPECTED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO ON SATURDAY AS EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM EAST.

LATEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
EARL SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AS IT APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING. LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OUT OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE CENTER OF EARL PASSING APPROXIMATELY 380
MILES NE OF SAINT JOHN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TNCM AND
TKPK.

&&

[msbee]

hmm!
watching and being nervous!

[cycloneye]

Here are the wind probabilities for some of the islands as of the 5 PM Advisory.

Code: Select all

FONT12 KNHC 262048
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2010                                           

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE               

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.             
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -     

VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  6       4       5       4       3       2       2
TROPICAL STORM  90      72      57      46      31      22      15
HURRICANE        5      24      38      49      65      75      83
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      21      32      34      38      34      31
HUR CAT 2        X       2       4      11      16      23      23
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       3       9      14      22
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       2       4       7
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    75KT    85KT   100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   8(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

$$                                                                 
FORECASTER STEWART   

[Gustywind]

Here are the wind probabilities for some of the islands as of the 5 PM Advisory.

Code: Select all

FONT12 KNHC 262048
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2010                                           

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE               

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.             
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -     

VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  6       4       5       4       3       2       2
TROPICAL STORM  90      72      57      46      31      22      15
HURRICANE        5      24      38      49      65      75      83
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      21      32      34      38      34      31
HUR CAT 2        X       2       4      11      16      23      23
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       3       9      14      22
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       2       4       7
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    75KT    85KT   100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   8(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

$$                                                                 
FORECASTER STEWART   

Waouw here we are .

[Gustywind]

hmm!
watching and being nervous!

Oh boy yeah for sure Msbee. Let's keep our fingers crossed as we're (for the moment) far away from Earl. We shoud continue to monitor very carefully what could happen with this feature.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Latest on Tropical Storm Earl...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


000
WTNT42 KNHC 262055
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

INNER-CORE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME
MORE CIRCULAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AN 1150Z ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED EARL POSSESSED A LARGE SWATH OF 34-KT WINDS MORE
THAN 90 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY..AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS. EARL
ALSO PASSED JUST NORTH OF PIRATA BUOY 13008 AROUND 1800Z...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THIS PRESSURE VALUE WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT.

EARL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. BY 72
HOURS...EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS
INDUCED BY DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
HELP RECURVE THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS EARL APPROACHES
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
EARL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS TO
TRAVERSE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. BY 48
HOURS...SOME OF THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS
EARL...WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS EARL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRENGTHEN EARL TO CATEGORY 4
INTENSITY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN
HIGHER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.2N 38.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 15.6N 41.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.9N 44.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 47.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.7N 50.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.2N 55.9W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT22 KNHC 262048
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 38.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 50SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 38.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 44.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 47.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.7N 50.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 55.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 38.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1620 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DETECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLANDS. HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED TROPICAL STORM EARL
SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WHICH DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING. LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OUT OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE CENTER OF EARL PASSING APPROXIMATELY 400
MILES NE OF SAINT JOHN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
OVER TIST...TISX AND TJSJ...IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM UNTIL AT LEAST 27/15Z.
AFTERWARDS...SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 27/17Z-27/23Z
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND
TJSJ.

[cycloneye]

Some of the islands are in the cone at the 11 PM Advisory. So lets continue to watch the progress of Tropical Storm Earl east of us.

[bvigal]

Yes, track shifted W just enough to move that cone over NE-most islands. Here's a markup I did using the final fix postion coordinates of 21N 62W:

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Monitoring Tropical Storm Earl to our east...

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST
TODAY...AND THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STEERING DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE RIVER LEVELS FOR RIO CIBUCO AND RIO GRANDE DE
MANATI WILL REMAIN HIGH. SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY AS SIMILAR AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO THE
MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS SUGGEST A SLIGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALL
THESE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERAL PUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM
EARL. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE NEAR OUR LOCAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 27/17Z TO 27/22Z MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND
TJSJ. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
PASSING TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS DANNIELLE
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. A SMALL NORTHERN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH OR LOCAL WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE EARL WILL TAKE A TRACK CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL
REGION THAN DANNIELLE...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE ENERGY IN THE FOR OF
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FORECAST IS
BASE ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF EARL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 91 78 / 50 20 70 50
STT 88 79 90 80 / 40 30 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

11/10

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, August 27, 2010 610 am EDT/510 am CDT

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For Information About Hurricane Danielle with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=1184.
For Information About Tropical Storm Earl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2972.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Discussion
Hurricane Danielle:
Danielle intensified significantly overnight with a distinct eye showing up on satellite imagery. Satellite estimates indicate that Danielle is a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane this morning. Additional strengthening seems likely today and it is not out of the question that Danielle peaks at 140 or 145 mph. Wind shear is forecast to increase starting Saturday and slow weakening is expected. By Monday and Tuesday, more substantial shear combined with cooler sea surface temperatures and a more stable atmosphere will result in more substantial weakening. Danielle is currently forecast to become extratropical by about Wednesday.

Danielle is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph. All of the hurricane track model guidance are in very good agreement that Danielle will first turn northward and then northeastward over the next couple of days ahead of a trough of low pressure moving off of the US East Coast. After Monday, Danielle is forecast accelerate east-northeast into the open Atlantic.

So, it seems certain that Danielle will not hit the United States. However, Danielle will produce large ocean swells which will be a real threat this weekend into next week for beach goers. A lot of people will be heading to the beach along the US East Coast this weekend into next week and those of you that are going will be at risk from rip tides and rough surf. These swells will begin reaching portions of the US East coast by Saturday and will be a real threat through much of next week. The combined energy between Danielle and then Earl will send large ocean swells and as I already mentioned rip tides and rough surf will be a danger. So, if you are headed for the beach this weekend, don’t stray too far out into the ocean. Large, breaking waves contain a lot of force and can easily injure you. Rip currents can pull you out, exhausting you to the point of drowning. For local information for your area, please refer to statements from your local National Weather Service office.

Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl is pretty much a steady state tropical storm with 45 mph maximum winds this morning. With that said, environmental conditions are favorable for intensification and I expect strengthening over the next few days. Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night or Sunday morning and reach major hurricane status probably on Tuesday. It should be noted that many of the intensity models forecast that Earl will be a powerful Category 4 hurricane by Wednesday and given the environmental conditions forecast along with the very warm ocean temperatures, I think this is quite possible.

Earl is tracking nearly due west at a forward speed of 17 mph and this general westward track will continue right through this weekend. Earl is forecast to approach a break in a ridge of high pressure, which will likely be enhanced by Hurricane Danielle around Monday and this should cause Earl to turn to the west-northwest or northwest. At this point, it seems more than likely that Earl will pass north of the Leeward Islands, however, all interests in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor the progress of Earl this weekend.

After Monday, there is some question on how strong of a weakness Danielle will leave behind. Currently, all of the model guidance forecasts that the weakness will be strong enough to turn Earl away from the US East Coast, but will be a significant threat to Bermuda around the middle part of next week. My thinking is that the ridge may build in somewhat quicker than what the model guidance is forecasting and I think even though Earl should pass north of the Leeward Islands, it probably will not turn to the north until it reaches between 65 and 70 West Longitude. I still say that Earl will not strike the US East Coast, however, as I already mentioned, it will pose a threat to Bermuda by about the middle of next week.

Invest 97-L In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
I am also keeping close tabs on Invest 97-L which is located about 250 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. I think this strong tropical wave will become Tropical Depression #8 this weekend and probably Tropical Storm Fiona early next week. All indications are that this system will be in a favorable environment right into next week and further intensification is likely next week.

Now, for the potential track, Invest 97-L will embedded underneath a large high pressure ridge and a general west to west-northwest track is expected for at least the next several days. I am pretty skeptical with the fast forward motion posed by model guidance like the GFS model, which ends up forecasting that 97-L will catch up with Earl and become dinner for Earl. Other model guidance like the European and Canadian models are downright scary with the European model forecasting a very powerful hurricane to be sitting just northeast of the Bahamas in 10 days. The Canadian model forecasts Hurricane Fiona to be positioned near Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas in 10 days. The upper level setup forecast by both models would imply a significant threat to the US Southeast coast during the Labor Day weekend.

It should be noted that the European model has been very inconsistent with the entire upper level pattern and I am taking this 10 day forecast with a grain of salt. So, don’t cancel your Labor Day weekend plans based on this one model. With that said, it appears that the European model is forecasting that the pattern that will be occurring this weekend will repeat again in 10 to 12 days from now, which is a strong trough of low pressure near the west coast of the United States and a large high pressure system that stretches from the eastern United States into eastern Canada.

I will be monitoring Invest 97-L closely this weekend and will keep you all updated.

Finally….
I wanted to mention that some of the European model ensemble members are forecasting more tropical waves to exit Africa and develop into tropical cyclones over the next 10 days or so. Given the high pressure ridge in place and the favorable environmental conditions, I have no reasons to disagree with the ensemble guidance. So, it seems quite possible that we will have multiple Cape Verde tropical cyclones going at once as we head into the first ten days or so of September.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.