Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

[GCANE]

Looks like LL Vorticity is lagging behind the convection.

Actually going thru Dakar now.

LIDAR measurements at Dakar shows it passing thru an minimum in dust-concentration.

Time-section from Dakar indicates a very strong moisture column; very much like Danielle as she exited the coast.

Good conditions for creating a pouch.

[GCANE]

200mb winds are showing a "fan-out" pattern downstream of the convection.

IMHO this indicates a strengthening updraft and could develop into a strong anti-cyclone.

[GCANE]

TRMM is showing a very high rain-rate cell at 9N 21.5W.

Typically, this indicates a hot-tower firing.

Also, a lot of overshooting tops are associated with the convection.

Good strong signature on microwave as well.

IMHO, this indicates a very good chance for this to spin up.

[cycloneye]

Those graphics above indicate that invest 97L is not far away from being up.

[GCANE]

36 hrs out, shear may be a bit of a problem, especially on the soth side of the LLC.

[GCANE]

EURO ensembles, 200 hrs out, show a probable movement into the Bahamas; with even a chance for possible St Croix hit.

In reality, a lot can happen until then.

[HURAKAN]

wow

[Brent]

Dare I say this looks better than Earl?

Very very impressive.

[GCANE]

Latest 320K PV Forecast shows the recurve kicking in when it enters the east Bahamas.

Wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 97L so thread is closed.