ATL: FIONA - Models

[cycloneye]

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WHXX01 KWBC 261718
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1718 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100826 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  19.0W   11.8N  21.3W   12.5N  23.9W   13.5N  26.8W
BAMD    11.5N  19.0W   11.6N  21.5W   12.0N  24.2W   12.5N  27.0W
BAMM    11.5N  19.0W   11.8N  21.4W   12.5N  24.1W   13.3N  27.1W
LBAR    11.5N  19.0W   11.7N  21.9W   12.0N  25.0W   12.3N  28.6W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  1200   100830  1200   100831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  30.2W   17.0N  37.9W   19.9N  46.1W   25.3N  54.1W
BAMD    13.1N  29.9W   14.7N  36.0W   16.8N  42.6W   19.1N  48.1W
BAMM    14.3N  30.3W   16.2N  37.4W   18.6N  45.1W   23.0N  52.0W
LBAR    12.4N  32.1W   12.8N  39.1W   14.5N  45.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          65KTS          70KTS          68KTS
DSHP        49KTS          65KTS          70KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  19.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  11.3N LONM12 =  16.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  13.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has Fiona as a Caribbean cruiser.

[thetruesms]

The SFWMD image confused for me a brief second until I realized that they're not quite caught up with the current 97L

[cycloneye]

The SFWMD image confused for me a brief second until I realized that they're not quite caught up with the current 97L

Those graphics take sometime to update.

[KWT]

It doesn't develop Fiona till about 50W...in that solution you can't be sure, esp if Earl recurves out near 60W like Danielle does...

I'd be curious to see if any models try and have this one develop that far south

[Ivanhater]

Both the Canadian and Nogaps show a threat to the Islands

[KWT]

Lets see though if the later GFS/ECM show any threat to land...if its a late brewer it has a shot I suppose...

Note on the GFS both Danielle and the upper trough that lifts Earl up both help to lift 97L out, this one is going to need to be quite abit slower in terms of its motion if that is not to happen.

[CrazyC83]

This will almost certainly miss the first trough. The only way I see it recurving is if it strengthens quickly and slows down to pick up a second trough (the rapid intensification is unlikely), otherwise it is Caribbean bound.

[ILVrecurves]

I'm sure Earl will absorb this one as it heads well out to sea. Or maybe Earl and Fiona will become powerful hurricanes curving around 60W. That would at least continue to make the ACE go up while keeping the storms well away from land.

[StormClouds63]

Michael:

Looking like this one could perhaps break the re-curve scenario if that Atlantic ridge builds back in time ... Agreed, no "fish" call on this one ... at least, not yet.

[cycloneye]

KWT, here are the ECMWF ensembles that show NE Caribbean / Bahamas hits.

[KWT]

Once again it seems a lot hinges on how fast Danielle moves, the system is strong enough and slow enough on the GFS to lift this one up to about 18-20N and the following trough finishes the job...whilst the CMC shots Danielle eastwards and doesn't develop this one till its influences is much reduced.

FWIW 00z CMC takes this one on a Caribbean Islands tour...

IF it does take a long time to get going then the Caribbean option is certainly a possible option though I think the recurve solution is more possible...though it may well recurve through the E.Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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683
WHXX01 KWBC 261807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100826 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1800   100827  0600   100827  1800   100828  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  19.8W   12.0N  22.2W   12.9N  25.0W   14.0N  28.2W
BAMD    11.5N  19.8W   11.8N  22.2W   12.5N  24.8W   13.1N  27.5W
BAMM    11.5N  19.8W   12.0N  22.4W   12.9N  25.3W   13.9N  28.5W
LBAR    11.5N  19.8W   11.6N  22.6W   12.1N  25.8W   12.3N  29.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1800   100829  1800   100830  1800   100831  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  31.9W   17.7N  40.6W   20.7N  49.2W   26.0N  56.5W
BAMD    14.0N  30.3W   16.0N  36.6W   18.2N  43.1W   20.7N  48.1W
BAMM    15.0N  31.9W   16.9N  39.9W   19.5N  48.1W   23.9N  54.6W
LBAR    12.7N  32.7W   13.4N  39.8W   15.0N  47.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        56KTS          67KTS          68KTS          64KTS
DSHP        56KTS          67KTS          68KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  19.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  11.4N LONM12 =  17.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  15.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KWT]

Those BAM's look way too far to the NE, I see no reason why it'd lift up too much above 15N before 50W to be honest.

[Ivanhater]

Those BAM's look way too far to the NE, I see no reason why it'd lift up too much above 15N before 50W to be honest.

Did the same thing with Earl..they will adjust.

[KWT]

12z ECM nearly catches up with Earl and then follows Earl out to sea...and guess where that happens...good ole 60W!

Looks pretty strong as well by 168hrs.

[Ivanhater]

12z ECM nearly catches up with Earl and then follows Earl out to sea...and guess where that happens...good ole 60W!

Looks pretty strong as well by 168hrs.

Apparently some METS are saying the shortwave trough is too aggressive at the Great lakes region.

[KWT]

Yeah may well be the case but who knows, really right now we have two camps, with the GFS/ECM shooting this westwards quickly enough to feel the tug of recurving Danielle and to an extent the trough further north which may take Earl out to sea as well, whilst the Nogaps and the CMC are further south and at least the CMC looks to keep the system a good bit weaker.

[Frank2]

The 12Z GFS loop:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

still a weakness in the western Atlantic...

[KWT]

ECMlifts out to some extent but loses the connection with Earl and gets shunted back westwards by 240hrs...

IF the system was a bit slower and stayed further south to start with, it'd certainly make things interesting down the line!

Either Earl or 97L gets west of 70W IMO but not sure what one for now.