ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[ILVrecurves]

I guess the forecasters were right when they said we would see 3-4 storms at once in the Atlantic. We could easily see Danielle, Earl, and Fiona at the same time.

[Ivanhater]

Look how close it is though to Earl, I find it hard to believe this one won't get scooped up with Earl unless it doesn't develop barely if at all till the Caribbean and stays mainly a ITCZ feature...

The vorticity and wave axis is barely offshore. Plenty of distance between 97L and Earl..

[vbhoutex]

My initial thoughts on this one are that it is going to take a while to get going. It already has two systems out ahead of it that have churned up the waters and the atmosphere somewhat. It appears to be coming off Africa a little lower also. I haven't looked at everything, but I would guess that 97L will come a good deal further West than Danielle and Earl unless it ramps up quicker than I think it will. It looks like it has a good moisture envelope around it so I wouldn't expect a poof either.

Well, no one can say the tropics aren't active now. When someone lit the pilot light it did its' job very well!! the heat is on for sure.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of distance between 97L and Earl..

Around 1000 miles.

[KWT]

Remember though Ivanhater Earl will probably slow in 3-4 days time and thats when this system will catch up and draw in the distance....if you look at the GFS for example the system nearly gets absorbed by Earl it gets so close....it'll probably have to grow to more then a 1000 miles if this one isn't going to get drawn northwards with Earl when that eventually happens....and Danielle will still have some tug on this one as well from the looks of the GFS....

I personally think if this one does become even a half decent TS east of 50-55W it recurves given both Earl and the general troughing anyway down the W.Atlantic...now if it stays real weak then the best case is a Mariyln type system, the worst could be something heading deeper into the Caribbean and lifting out towards the E.coast/Florida through the islands IMO.

Too early to sure of anything though as per normal at this point.

[fci]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

[chrisjslucia]

The currently available models are showing this curving WNW and then NW from 20N 47W. As always, I hope they and KWT are correct

[ILVrecurves]

Well we are in a 1995 type recurve pattern so there is a great chance of every storm recurving around 60W or further east. The MJO maps indicate the entire Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf in a favorable upward motion period by early September so maybe some home brew activity at that time, but hopefully not.

This is an amazing pattern for most people. There's nothing better than watching a fish storm become powerful and safely move out to sea, it's what tropical enthusiasts live for, a big storm with little or no threat.

[perk]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

I think we should take a vote on whether or not to ban the word recurve on this forum.

[KWT]

I should add in this pattern usually the 3rd system in the train will get further west then the others but who knows whether that will play out this time round.

I expect only slow strengthening with this one but its going to have to barely develop to be a big threat IMO judging from the synoptic pattern...and I'd say I've been a pretty good judge given whats happening with the storms at the moment...

[cwachal]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

I think we should take a vote on whether or not to ban the word recurve on this forum.

we could have it change the word recurve to "make landfall as a cat 5 in my backyard" that would get a lot of people to stop using it so early

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

latest

[SoupBone]

Barely off the coast of Africa and the pundits are calling for a recurve already.

I guess I was napping when 7-14 day forecasts became automatic!

I think your sarcasm meter must be broken or malfunctioning. Go directly to your nearest Ace harware for an upgrade.

[KWT]

we could have it change the word recurve to "make landfall as a cat 5 in my backyard" that would get a lot of people to stop using it so early

Key is going to be the usual two S's, speed and strength, stay weak and take a long time to make the journey and the Caribbean threat increases markedly, strengthen too much OR speed up too much, and it follows auntie Danielle and quite possibly uncle Earl into the lovely waters of the North Atlantic for a Icelandic trip!

[Aric Dunn]

Its is for sure is another very impressive way right up there with what formed danielle. the wave with earl was a little better but this wave will likely develop as there is no inhibiting factors. there is some evidence for a broad circulation in surface obs and satellite and convection is on the increase so all ingredients are present so just needs some time to get some pressure falls and bingo.. would say about 48 hours for the next TD

[Aric Dunn]

Should gain some distance between this system as it is moving slower at the moment.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082618, , BEST, 0, 115N, 198W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Moving strait west.Only change from the first position is the pressure lower by one millibar.

[KWT]

Its is for sure is another very impressive way right up there with what formed danielle. the wave with earl was a little better but this wave will likely develop as there is no inhibiting factors. there is some evidence for a broad circulation in surface obs and satellite and convection is on the increase so all ingredients are present so just needs some time to get some pressure falls and bingo.. would say about 48 hours for the next TD

That'd much quicker then what the models are currently suggesting, would probably make the idea of this one following the others much more likely IMO....but not a certainty by any means.

It doesn't look bad though does it and its at a fairly deep latitude so if the subtropical high was to strengthen and stay strong like it does on the CMC (the GFS weakens it a fair amount by 144hrs) then things get interesting.

Whilst I think recurvature is more likely again like Earl its not a done deal any imagination...remember that people!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... boom boom pow!