ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cpdaman]

yup don't think it's a major.....visible looks good but ....infared...wv nah.....100-105 mph is my guess

when do we get recon?

[KWT]

Given the current presentation though Crazy I wouldn't be at all surprised if the NHC just go for it an upgrade it to a major, but then again what are the current Dvorak estimates?

[plasticup]

yup don't think it's a major.....visible looks good but ....infared...wv nah.....100-105 mph is my guess

when do we get recon?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DANIELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0106A DANIELLE
C. 27/1330Z
D. 27.2N 59.7W
E. 27/1545Z TO 27/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0206A DANIELLE
C. 28/0115Z
D. 28.5N 60.5W
E. 28/0345Z TO 28/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

tl;dr: tomorrow

[CrazyC83]

Given the current presentation though Crazy I wouldn't be at all surprised if the NHC just go for it an upgrade it to a major, but then again what are the current Dvorak estimates?

It was T5.0 six hours ago but looks a lot better now - probably T5.5 at the moment (I wouldn't be shocked if there is a T6.0 somewhere). I'd personally only raise the intensity to 95 kt though unless someone has a T6.0 - systems with large eyes and shallower convection also tend to sometimes not bring their strongest winds to the surface. I would guess the pressure to be 955mb.

[Aric Dunn]

So here is something to think about.. if it was 105mph earlier when the convection was even weaker and the CDO was not established... looking at it now with a expanding CDO and more symmetrical eye... increasing the wind only 10 MPH is very reasonable and probably a little low. I would go 115 just because it only recently became better organized but 120 would not be out of the question either.

[cpdaman]

thanks for the recon times.....so well see fri pm exactly what she's workin with

she should pass within 150-200 miles of bouy 41049 located at 27.5 N 63W unless she dips further WNW tonite before the trough scoopes her North...(prob not)..http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41049

[CrazyC83]

Shear increases just ahead - is that related to Danielle or could it weaken the storm?

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Shear increases just ahead - is that related to Danielle or could it weaken the storm?

That upper trough is supposed to drop to the SW of danielle which typically would be a favorable set up for intensification. something to watch and see exactly how that evolves because more shear would help out Bermuda.. that is if it gets close enough to Bermuda

[KWT]

yup don't think it's a major.....visible looks good but ....infared...wv nah.....100-105 mph is my guess

when do we get recon?

It was as high as that before though and its improved leaps and bounds at least in terms of the eye definition in the last 4hrs, I'd probably go 95kts but note that it could be conservative.

[plasticup]

I agree that convection will have to improve if the storm is to get stronger than it currently is, but given the improvement in appearance since the NHC estimated 90 knots I think 100 knots is pretty reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

26/1745 UTC 24.8N 56.4W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Interesting to see its as low as 5.0 there, I think personally thats a little on the low side given the vast improvement since earlier today in the eye definition.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah but the convection is still a bit shallow which might be worthy of holding it down some. I'd put the intensity at 95 kt.

[cpdaman]

Interesting to see its as low as 5.0 there, I think personally thats a little on the low side given the vast improvement since earlier today in the eye definition.

i think earlier today they were a bit generous with the estimated winds. 90 knots seems good....should it develop some intense convection and or / a tighter eye then we talk major IMO IMO 95 max..90 more likely again just my opionon

[cycloneye]

Still at 90kts

18z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082618, , BEST, 0, 248N, 564W, 90, 970, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Hmmmm its interesting to see they are holding at 90kts, looks like they are totally believing Dvorak.

To be honest this looks miles better then it did when it was at 90kts earlier on today but then again convection isn't that deep I suppose...

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.8mb/ 94.8kt

Agreeable

[plasticup]

Eye shrinking, convection growing.

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

based on the steering flow ...shouldn't she make a BEAR LEFT turn sometime soon...or is the high too shallow?

i mean....yea there's an upper trough to the west.that's sinking sw..so there's some N shear....and she may be trying to move around it...but i would think her heading should steadily turn from about 320...more toward 300 by later tonite

[theregulator]

The troll is gone. Carry on...

Sorry, but I was actually hoping to see the superhuman intelligence do some forecasting! LOL