ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Did a little research on all storms in August/September that have tracked within 65nm of Earl’s current location. There were 40, 8 of which struck the U.S. Only one made it to the Gulf, and only 2 reached the Caribbean.

But there were some quite notable storms among those 8:

Galveston 1915 hurricane
1928 Okeechobee hurricane – hit Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 first, the only Cat 5 ever to hit PR
Great 1938 New England Hurricane
Isabel of 2003
Fran of 1996
Gloria of 1985
Connie in 1955
1893 Long Island Hurricane

That means about 20% of those storms struck the U.S, 2.5% reached the Gulf and 5% reached the Caribbean.

Looking at the 12Z GFS, it takes Earl much farther west before it turns north - between 70W-75W. I think there's a fair chance of such a track. And if it gets that far west then it wouldn't take much for it to hit the U.S. Mid Atlantic Coast or southern New England.

Thanks for putting this together. While I know we may not rely solely on climatology for predictions I think it helps put things into perspective by looking at the broader picture. Please keep this up because I'm paying attention!

[KWT]

Yeah its helpful I agree Soupbone, it just goes to that most of the systems from where Earl is at the moment will recurve, 20% isn't that large, esp when you take into consideration the troughing pattern that has been lingering which probably reduces that risk down to something like maybe 5-10%...the risk to the far NE Caribbean Islands does look to be quite alot higher then that right now.

[cycloneye]

Earl is now forecast to become a major cane.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

[KWT]

Wow thats an impressive forecast there Hurakan!

Wouldn't be all that surprising given the track its going to take to get this to a major hurricane.

[ColinDelia]

Glad I did my ACE dance last week

[cycloneye]

5 PM forecast track. Notice the M at the last forecast point.

[somethingfunny]

The models are starting to cut really close to the Islands. Definitely, everyone in that area needs to keep an eye on Earl.

I was surprised to find out that the NE Leewards haven't had a major hit from the east in over a decade. They had two hits from the southwest in Lenny and Omar, but every major CV storm either went south (Emily and Ivan) or way to the north (Floyd, Fabian, Isabel, Frances, Ike, etc) The Islands haven't had a big hit from a Cape Verde hurricane since Georges way back in 1998....and then of course there was Luis back in 1995, perhaps the benchmark storm used by the locals to compare every other hurricane to.

[Bocadude85]

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

This part of the 5pm discussion got my attention.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS Discussion:

LATEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
EARL SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AS IT APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING. LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OUT OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE CENTER OF EARL PASSING APPROXIMATELY 380
MILES NE OF SAINT JOHN.

[Vortex]

From NHC 5pm....


THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS

[fd122]

Let's hope this recurves early.

[supercane]

Convection still very shallow as seen on SSMIS:

Also from this, would have center a few tenths of a degree north of the 21Z advisory position.

[TheBurn]

[SoupBone]

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

This part of the 5pm discussion got my attention.

Well that's a very sobering discussion. A ridge building between Danielle and Earl will give someone a big headache especially if the 120 knot forecast holds true. I hope the islands are giving this storm serious consideration.

[Blown Away]

From NHC 5pm....


THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS

So if Danielle recurves NE faster and Earl slows down and allows the ridge to build to the N of Earl, does that mean anything for the Bahamas, SFL, EC, and GOM, or does it mean a closer call for the NE Caribbean and a recurve a little farther W?

[Bocadude85]

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

This part of the 5pm discussion got my attention.

Well that's a very sobering discussion. A ridge building between Danielle and Earl will give someone a big headache especially if the 120 knot forecast holds true. I hope the islands are giving this storm serious consideration.

The 120kts are forecast gusts. The NHC is forecasting Earl to be 100kts in 5 days

[Bocadude85]

From NHC 5pm....


THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS

So if Danielle recurves NE faster and Earl slows down and allows the ridge to build to the N of Earl, does that mean anything for the Bahamas, SFL, EC, and GOM, or does it mean a closer call for the NE Caribbean and a recurve a little farther W?

It all depends on how strong the East coast ridge is and how far west Earl travels.

[dixiebreeze]

From the San Juan NWS Discussion:

LATEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
EARL SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AS IT APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING. LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OUT OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE CENTER OF EARL PASSING APPROXIMATELY 380
MILES NE OF SAINT JOHN.

Luis, too close for comfort.

[Macrocane]

Earl is really suffering due to dry air right now, but it has a looong way to go and eventually it will reach a more favorable environment as the NHC is forecasting, let's see if D Max improves its appearence later tonight.

[KWT]

Quite a few uncertainties with regards to the track, I'd certainly pay attention if I was in the NE Caribbean right now just in case it decides to keep on trotting westwards for longer then progged.