ATL: EARL - Models

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supercane
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#401 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 26, 2010 4:15 pm

capepoint wrote:Many hurricanes move by the area from Cape lookout to Cape Hatteras, and althogh they stay "just offshore", we still get winds, tides, and rain. They are not counted as a landfall, but with the eye 10-20 miles offshore, we get plenty of damage from the west eyewall.


Relevant definitions from the NHC glossary:
Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
Image


From these definitions, the case described would be a direct hit without landfall.
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#402 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Aug 26, 2010 4:31 pm

Wow, thanks supercane. That explains a lot. I wonder how insurance companies handle the different terms?

btw, anyone notice that the difference between the 06z and 12z gfs.

12 z looks like 500 miles west of 6z. Hope the trend reverses.
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#403 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:19 pm

18Z GFS is very very close to the northern leewards...Folks down there had better be paying very close attention!
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#404 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:21 pm

GFS. 90 hours from now

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Last edited by ColinDelia on Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#405 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:22 pm

102 hours

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Last edited by ColinDelia on Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#406 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:22 pm

Way close for comfort.
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#407 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:23 pm

this trend is very alarming for island residents...lets see how the hwrf/gfdl 18z trend...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#408 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:23 pm

114 hours
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#409 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:24 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

The 18z gfs at 126 hours is looking like an east coast hit with Earl heading WnW and a fairly substantial high at 500 mb centered over the SE U.S. blocking a recurve at this point.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#410 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:25 pm

The 12Z GFS is interesting...

Image

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But what's funny is, the ensembles are all to the East.


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#411 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:25 pm

If this pattern takes shape as the 18Z is indicating I assure you the 00Z gfs will trend further S and W.
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#412 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:26 pm

Ensembles are really interesting!
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#413 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:28 pm

18z GFS has it beginning the northward lift at 120hr, north of Puerto Rico.

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I may be wrong but I think the 12z had the lift north of the Virgin Islands.
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#414 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:31 pm

It is pretty close it has to be said, another 24hrs on a north of west track would have it hitting the islands on that track....
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#415 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:32 pm

132 hours
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#416 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:33 pm

144 hours

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#417 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:33 pm

18z GFS still shows how hard it is going to be to get this towards the E.Coast though, the upper ridging is but gone by 168hrs and the upper trough is totally in charge so should recurve away at 70W this run.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#418 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:40 pm

168 hours
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#419 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:50 pm

Image
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#420 Postby I Scream Cone » Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:50 pm

KWT, with all due respect, what exactly is going to weaken the ridge at 168 hrs??? Looks to me like a very strong high pressure ridge...please correct me if I'm wrong. They have Earl busting through a power ridge for no apparent reason, and what is the cause for Earl's stall between 144-168hr???
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