ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Vortex]

Looks like Earl is developing some deep convection near the center....

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[bvigal]

From the San Juan NWS Discussion:
LATEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
EARL SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AS IT APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING. LATEST
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OUT OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE CENTER OF EARL PASSING APPROXIMATELY 380
MILES NE OF SAINT JOHN.

I think NWS/SJU was offsetting this remark they made this morning: "AS EARL...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THEN...PASSES AROUND 550 TO 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SAINT THOMAS"
It's obvious that this far out, things can change, and 'warrants close monitoring' is a wiser statement, yet won't induce panic in local residents. Good writeup.

That's a good pic, Luis! Maybe center is reorganizing further north? Good for us, it if is!

[cycloneye]

Exactly bvigal. It looks like a reformation more north, but lets wait for the best track position shortly to see where they analize it.

[supercane]

Few more showers closer to center in this recent microwave pass:


SAB Dvorak classification slightly up, but T2.5 is only 35kt:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2345 UTC 16.0N 38.9W T2.5/2.5 EARL
26/1745 UTC 15.7N 38.2W T2.0/2.5 EARL

[plasticup]

Surprisingly good circulation in that microwave image

[gatorcane]

Well here in the WV image you can see the very large ridge in the North-Central CONUS. It is pushing ESE. It should position itself near the Eastern CONUS ultimately. It is this ridge that will determine how far Earl makes it. A shortwave is expected to hit this ridge in about 5-6 days from now, potentially weakening it enough to cause Earl to head NW the N into a weakness. It's still far out there to know for sure what will happen:

[Buck]

Punch!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010082700, , BEST, 0, 156N, 396W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still below 16.0N and no change,40kts.

[KWT]

Given the synoptics aloft I'm having a hard time thinking this will be a threat to anywhere bar maybe the far NE Islands of the Caribbean and possibly Bermuda...esp as its going to get west of Danielle.

Other then that the pattern just is very condusive for recurving at the moment still...I'd suspect it gets to 70W then starts to move NNE from there possibly close to Bermuda, though probably just to the west...that'd be my punt right now.

[sfwx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 29 2010 - 12Z THU SEP 02 2010

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WRN TROF AND STRONG
ERN CONUS RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DE AMPLIFY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE WESTERLY NPAC FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE CORE
OF WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA/ NRN TIER OF CONUS. ECMWF AND CMC
STILL INDICATE A STRONGER PROGRESSIVE TROF COMING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF STATES AND CLOSING OFF IN SRN CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS ARE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND LAGGED AVERAGE
FORECASTS OF THOSE MODELS. AS SUCH PREFER THE LESSER AMPLIFIED
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF WELL AGREED UPON ENS MEANS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

12Z GFS REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO 00Z CMC AND 00Z GFS ENS MEAN FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 TROF AMPLITUDE TO KEEP THE SAME BLEND AS PREVIOUSLY
USED.

OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HURCN DANIELLE TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE
OF NOAM. HEAVY SWELL AND A RIP CURRENT THREAT FROM DANIELLE WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. TS EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE MAY FOLLOW IN
NEARLY IN TRACE OF DANIELLE HOWEVER LAST GFS/UKMET KEEP EARL
SLOWER AND ALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WOULD FORCE EARL FARTHER WESTWARD. ADDITIONAL RE
INFORCEMENT TO THE ONSHORE EAST COAST SWELL WILL BE GENERATED BY
EARL. CURRENT
COORDINATED HPC/TPC POSITIONS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 CONTINUE TO KEEP
EARL WELL OFFSHORE. SEE TPC WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS AND OPC/LOCAL NWS
OFFICE ADVISORIES.

ROSENSTEIN

[HURAKAN]

[bvigal]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs393.snc4/45666_147006555321810_100000374000302_286231_8197473_n.jpg

Excellent pic Hurakan!!! I was drawing circles around those this morning, LOL!
http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/9512/1008261145msg2irafricam.jpg

[Cyclone1]

Man, Africa's quite the machine gun right now.

[Riptide]

Man, Africa's quite the machine gun right now.

One of the bullets will eventually hit the conus, right?

[HURAKAN]

looking good

[gatorcane]

Man, Africa's quite the machine gun right now.

One of the bullets will eventually hit the conus, right?

Maybe not:

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

Samdy,there is a problem with that ASCAT, is from this morning at 11:50z or 7:50 AM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Samdy,there is a problem with that ASCAT, is from this morning at 11:50z or 7:50 AM EDT.

Oops! I'm never good with ASCAT. I had the same problem with QuikSCAT. RIP! lol