ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like this thing will be a gem of a storm.

[Vortmax1]

It's just an infant y'all.
Too soon after emergence...give it another 12 hours and see how excited you are then.

[dafst45]

I apologize in advance if this post is out of place...

I've been fascinated by the discussions on this board, as I was looking at a place to monitor tropical weather conditions, as our family leaves for a Caribbean cruise next Saturday from NYC. In your guys opinion, is this storm, Fiona, the one to watch for? Where is this storm most likely to be say in 10 days, when we are supposed to be in Grand Turk. I know the ships will move around the storms, and I'm assuming NYC looks okay for a week from now (Doubtful Danielle/Earl hits the mid-atlantic right)...so is this storm worth watching, or is the next one?

Thanks for any replies, again this board is great.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Welcome aboard dafst45! I would guess that the storms that would need watching in your case would be both Earl and the future Fiona.

[BigA]

This thing's future track could depend a lot on whether it organizes slowly or quickly. If it organizes slowly and stays around 10-12 north, it will be a lot harder for it to get picked up, though much of this depends on the size and strength of Earl, which in turn depends somewhat on the path of Danielle.

[cycloneye]

I apologize in advance if this post is out of place...

I've been fascinated by the discussions on this board, as I was looking at a place to monitor tropical weather conditions, as our family leaves for a Caribbean cruise next Saturday from NYC. In your guys opinion, is this storm, Fiona, the one to watch for? Where is this storm most likely to be say in 10 days, when we are supposed to be in Grand Turk. I know the ships will move around the storms, and I'm assuming NYC looks okay for a week from now (Doubtful Danielle/Earl hits the mid-atlantic right)...so is this storm worth watching, or is the next one?

Thanks for any replies, again this board is great.

First,welcome to storm2k. Is very early to say for sure if this system will threat the Caribbean or not as there are many factors in the enviroment that could turn this away from the Caribbean, or track towards the islands. The best thing for now is to monitor the progress of this system and as you said, the ship companies know what is going on and may act accordinly if a threat comes to occur.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree Cycloneye one should keep updated with the latest information.

[Cuber]

Welcome dafst45 ... all the storms and invests currently out there (and the ones that will probably form over the next 12 days of your timeframe) will have some impact on your cruise ... rougher seas etc. Don't stop watching just these three ... be alert for the ones to come.

[Buck]

Wow, the structure and moisture is there, just let it "grow up" a little. This thing should be fun to watch!

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak is way down in latitude.

26/2345 UTC 10.4N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Vortex]

sure is cycloneye...i think the nogaps for now looks best...

[sfwx]

Starting to look like 1995.

[KWT]

Wave looks to be moving westward at 15 to 20mph instead of WNW. This one would likely have the highest chance of the trio to impact the Caribbean or U.S. down the line. Problem is that it may get sucked up by Earl ultimately which appears to be a recurver for the U.S and I still think the islands as well.

Yeah we are lucky in many ways that the pattern is very progressive, I wouldn't fancy a season with even a half decent upper ridge in the W.Atlantic given how far south this system is setting up at....I suspect though the troughing is constant enough in the W.Atlantic and also with Danielle moving through the N.Central part of the basin as it turns extra-tropical to induce enough lift over the next week for it to lift out...however to be honest is real far south and I'm not confident about that, its the least confident one of the 3 CV systems so far.

10.5N looks like a pretty good starting point to me.

[Vortmax1]

Looks familiar!!

Familiar at 10.4N or in what way is it familiar?

[plasticup]

Starting to look like 1995.

Can you elaborate? I was only 9 years old...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I was curious about that too. What looks familiar?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 217W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Best Track has it at 11.0N,low latitude anyway. This is so far the system of the most lower latitude of the trio right now,so lets see what will occur down the road.

[Vortmax1]

110N

Low...way too low for late August!

[Stephanie]

I apologize in advance if this post is out of place...

I've been fascinated by the discussions on this board, as I was looking at a place to monitor tropical weather conditions, as our family leaves for a Caribbean cruise next Saturday from NYC. In your guys opinion, is this storm, Fiona, the one to watch for? Where is this storm most likely to be say in 10 days, when we are supposed to be in Grand Turk. I know the ships will move around the storms, and I'm assuming NYC looks okay for a week from now (Doubtful Danielle/Earl hits the mid-atlantic right)...so is this storm worth watching, or is the next one?

Thanks for any replies, again this board is great.

Again, welcome!

Ditto what cycloneye said. Cruises, especially this time of the year, are on alert for tropical systems. Depending upon what 97L does and becomes, your cruise may end up being diverted. Nothing this far out is set in stone, so just keep us tuned in and also check with your cruise line for guidance.

[Gustywind]

NRL

20100827.0000.97LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-115N-201W

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

A bit higher than SSD and 00 Best Track and more to the right 20,1W.