ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Hugo1989]

Earl could follow the track that took Luis (1995) close to the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Earl could follow the track that took Luis (1995) close to the Caribbean.

Here is Luis in 1995. At that time, there was a big subtropical ridge dominating most of the Atlantic distint from this season so far, that the ridges have not been strong thanks to a negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Ocillation) but that is another topic that we can discuss at Talking Tropics forum in a thread that I have about this.

[bvigal]

Earl could follow the track that took Luis (1995) close to the Caribbean.

Interesting comparison. But, uh.. err... "Close" to the Caribbean?
"Luis was a category 4 Cape Verde hurricane that wreaked harm and havoc on the northeasternmost of the Leeward Islands, with an estimated sixteen dead and two-and-a-half billion dollars in damages." from NHC

[fci]

Local met brought up the "possibility" that Earl could be held south and take a westerly course if the ridge builds in after Danielle. He didn't say it was likely but that we would need to watch it.
I agree. I never rest easy until a storm is north of about 28.0

[cycloneye]

The last position at 11 PM Advisory is further west than the 5 PM one.

5 PM=120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 100 KT

11 PM=120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 100 KT

[Ikester]

[gatorcane]

Even avila mentions the stubborn weakness in the latest disco. As long as that weakness is around every one of the cape verde systems will be deflected away from the United States

[SouthFLTropics]

I never rest easy until a storm is north of about 28.0

I used to rest easy after a storm got north of my location...That is until Jeanne did a little loop de loop and changed my thinking...

SFT

[ROCK]

Even avila mentions the stubborn weakness in the latest disco. As long as that weakness is around every one of the cape verde systems will be deflected away from the United States

do you really think that weakness is going to be there for the rest of the season? or even for Fiona? I highly doubt it...

[cycloneye]

This is from the 11 PM advisory about how many miles it would pass from the closest islands.

[RL3AO]

We could still see a US impact from this. There is going to be a ridge building over the Northeast. Its going to be hot. People will be going to the beach. Major hurricane = high swells and rip currents. I'd be surprised if there aren't any drownings in the NE from Earl, especially on a hot sunny Labor day weekend in the Northeast. Hell, even the President was planning on going to Martha's Vineyard.

[dixiebreeze]

Don't know if this was already posted somewhere, but Recon has added Earl on the possible "to do" list:

NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 26 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DANIELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0106A DANIELLE
C. 27/1330Z
D. 27.2N 59.7W
E. 27/1545Z TO 27/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0206A DANIELLE
C. 28/0115Z
D. 28.5N 60.5W
E. 28/0345Z TO 28/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX ON DANIELLE
AT 28/1800Z NEAR 30.7N 61.0W
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF TROPICAL STORM
EARL AT 29/1800Z NEAR 17.5N 54.5W

[fci]

I never rest easy until a storm is north of about 28.0

I used to rest easy after a storm got north of my location...That is until Jeanne did a little loop de loop and changed my thinking...

SFT

Well, Betsy is probably the example to use where a storm went past 28 and ended up coming back.
Jeanne really never passed 28 before the loop; however your point is well taken.

But, given that we are only talking about 2 storms or so that have defied logic; I still rest pretty easy when a storm passes our Latitude and is well offshore when they do so.
Seems like for quite a few years in a row the standard was for a storm to do the "recurve".
Then 2004 jolted us back to reality (I know Andrew was the other REAL example but for those of us in Palm Beach County and North, Andrew was not a real issue).
Bottom line is that for many years we dodged bullets and only in the past few years, we have been snapped back to reality. The good thing is that the apathy is about gone now and people do take storms seriously, unlike how it was when many years went by with nary a threat.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

GENERAL PUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM
EARL. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE NEAR OUR LOCAL REGION MONDAY.


&&

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE EARL WILL TAKE A TRACK CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL
REGION THAN DANNIELLE...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE ENERGY IN THE FOR OF
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FORECAST IS
BASE ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF EARL.


&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 91 78 / 50 20 70 50
STT 88 79 90 80 / 40 30 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

11/10

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, August 27, 2010 610 am EDT/510 am CDT

Discussion
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl is pretty much a steady state tropical storm with 45 mph maximum winds this morning. With that said, environmental conditions are favorable for intensification and I expect strengthening over the next few days. Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night or Sunday morning and reach major hurricane status probably on Tuesday. It should be noted that many of the intensity models forecast that Earl will be a powerful Category 4 hurricane by Wednesday and given the environmental conditions forecast along with the very warm ocean temperatures, I think this is quite possible.

Earl is tracking nearly due west at a forward speed of 17 mph and this general westward track will continue right through this weekend. Earl is forecast to approach a break in a ridge of high pressure, which will likely be enhanced by Hurricane Danielle around Monday and this should cause Earl to turn to the west-northwest or northwest. At this point, it seems more than likely that Earl will pass north of the Leeward Islands, however, all interests in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor the progress of Earl this weekend.

After Monday, there is some question on how strong of a weakness Danielle will leave behind. Currently, all of the model guidance forecasts that the weakness will be strong enough to turn Earl away from the US East Coast, but will be a significant threat to Bermuda around the middle part of next week. My thinking is that the ridge may build in somewhat quicker than what the model guidance is forecasting and I think even though Earl should pass north of the Leeward Islands, it probably will not turn to the north until it reaches between 65 and 70 West Longitude. I still say that Earl will not strike the US East Coast, however, as I already mentioned, it will pose a threat to Bermuda by about the middle of next week.

Finally….
I wanted to mention that some of the European model ensemble members are forecasting more tropical waves to exit Africa and develop into tropical cyclones over the next 10 days or so. Given the high pressure ridge in place and the favorable environmental conditions, I have no reasons to disagree with the ensemble guidance. So, it seems quite possible that we will have multiple Cape Verde tropical cyclones going at once as we head into the first ten days or so of September.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Nimbus]

Danielle has built an anticyclone over herself which may keep Earle on track towards the west for a few days. Danielle needs to stall and give Earl time to catch up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Gosh that microwave presentation is a bit of a mess, still looks like Earl cxan't shift that linear look. Its certainly taking its time to strengthen at the moment, probably riding close to 16N still....

Time for people in the NE Caribbean Islands to take this one very seriously, its going to be a fairly close call, hopefully it jogs NE for you guys down there.

[HURAKAN]

12z .. still at 40 knots

AL, 07, 2010082712, , BEST, 0, 157N, 426W, 40, 1003, TS