ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

:uarrow:
It is curious that no low pressure is associated with this feature given the NHC ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

there's a low

Ok thanks Hurakan But why there is no mention in the TWD?

They have it as a 1010Mb low. It's in the graphics.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye do you have the latest Best Track for 97L?

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

Hey Cycloneye do you have the latest Best Track for 97L?

12z

AL, 97, 2010082712, , BEST, 0, 117N, 233W, 25, 1010, LO

[plasticup]

That's still pretty rough. You can see the circulation starting up to the east of the main convection but it's definitely early days still.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye do you have the latest Best Track for 97L?

12z

AL, 97, 2010082712, , BEST, 0, 117N, 233W, 25, 1010, LO

Thanks . Continues to travel west at low lattitude.

[plasticup]

Yeah it'll probably still form but like Earl I think this one stays fairly weak for a while, maybe only starting to strengthen to any great degree at 50W...we will see how that works out!

That would stop it from gaining too much latitude like the GFDL gives it. HWRF shows a weaker Fiona taking a more southerly track.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

That's still pretty rough. You can see the circulation starting up to the east of the main convection but it's definitely early days still.

Yeah and the circulation does look a little south of 11.7N IMO right now, perhaps close to 11N.

Also it does look a little rough but it is still pretty far east and so its got plenty of real estate to possibly develop down the line and I'd be surprised if it doesn't form at some point and as you say the weaker it stays the more likely it is to not gain much latitude....so probably going to move just a little north of west over the next few days.

[KWT]

This is from AFM in another thread, VERY bullish on a *recurve*

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

Fiona (to be) is most likley another fish. I would give it about a 80-90% chance of breaking into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda.

My personal thought is 50-50...I'm guessing AFM is taking the GFS idea as the most likely to come off which is fair enough, it may well be the most likely option for now.

[HURAKAN]

27/1200 UTC 12.5N 22.2W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

12.5ºN seems too high

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing near the center

[Sanibel]

"Too Weak" now means it stays more west. The only question is if the troughy pattern kicks out and a guiding ridge settles in. We already know the category 4 potential has already proven itself.

[KWT]

Yeah it looked good yesterday but to me it doesn't look like a 70% type system, I'd personally say 50-60% right now is a better call...

Still as you say Sanibel the weaker it stays now the less latitude its going to gain.

[wxman57]

FYI, taking a look at the Coastal Services Center plot of past storms near 97L, not one impacted the Caribbean OR the U.S.:

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

And when I put in the projected 72 hour position of the disturbance, still, not one made a direct impact on the Caribbean or the U.S. That's not to say it won't happen, but it's pretty far north to start out with for such a hit. The Euro and Canadian do have me a tad concerned about it.

[supercane]

Looks closed on ASCAT:

[srainhoutx]

This is from AFM in another thread, VERY bullish on a *recurve*

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

Fiona (to be) is most likley another fish. I would give it about a 80-90% chance of breaking into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda.

My personal thought is 50-50...I'm guessing AFM is taking the GFS idea as the most likely to come off which is fair enough, it may well be the most likely option for now.

Perhaps you should post his response to you as well.

[KWT]

Yah AFM pretty much says the same thing in a thread in TT, and to be climatology does rather argue againt it doesn't it!

Still we will see, I'm not quite so concerned for the Caribbean to be honest as I am with Earl which is still trundling westwards but equally the fact the ECM/CMC both show the same solution with the upper ridge building back in again makes things very interesting though could just as easily be an outlier on the 00z ECM.

[Sanibel]

Interesting that 1995 had a lot of open ocean tracks but also had some nasty Antilles hits like Marilyn and Luis, and Opal in the Gulf.

If the ridge establishes there's plenty of prime September dates for one of those wave train systems to be sent our way.

[JPmia]

Yeah I was going to post that too...if we're in a 1995ish pattern then those in the NE islands should keep close eyes to their east for the next month or so. Though, I know they are on this board.