A Strong Wave Forecast to Exit Africa Aound Sept 4

[GCANE]

Euro and NCEP ensembles are predicting a strong wave to hit the coast around Sept 4.

Could possibly be the strong vorticity signature currently at 20E.

[GCANE]

Very strong moisture column is forecast to be associated with this wave.

Much like Danielle and 97L when they exited the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

There is quite a few strong waves currently over Africa all with good vorticity. so far the waves in a row are forming or have formed. the one you speak of would make four and not sure i have seen 4 consecutive wave develop like this if that forms as well in about 10 days..

[Macrocane]

I don't think it's going to develop it doesn't have too much model support, I believe that we are going to see a period of quietness in the Atlantic on the first 7 to 10 days of september but everything bears watching in this time of year.

[jlauderdal]

Euro and NCEP ensembles are predicting a strong wave to hit the coast around Sept 4.

Could possibly be the strong vorticity signature currently at 20E.

guess i better be ready to put up shutters in a month



*Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags.

[Vortex]

[Air Force Met]

I don't think it's going to develop it doesn't have too much model support, I believe that we are going to see a period of quietness in the Atlantic on the first 7 to 10 days of september but everything bears watching in this time of year.

I would say you are probably wrong about that. The reason the models aren't going gang-busters on it is they are not initialized properly in regards to this system...and this is because of the lack of data over central Africa. The 700 and 500 are showing very little in the way of a closed circulation or vorticity. But as you can see in the satellite link...the satellite initialization does not match the models.

http://www.sat24.com/td

It's a machine already. Presuming it holds together...I can't wait to see what it does when it actually gets to the water. If it WAS over water right now...it would surely be a tropical depression...

[Scorpion]

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

[GCANE]

CMC is starting to hint.

[Air Force Met]

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

Fiona (to be) is most likley another fish. I would give it about a 80-90% chance of breaking into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda.

[ColinDelia]

This is a really good looking wave ATM

[ColinDelia]

Check it out spinning::
http://www.sat24.com/af

[KWT]

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

Fiona (to be) is most likley another fish. I would give it about a 80-90% chance of breaking into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda.

Whilst this is a different palce for it, I'd be very careful to go so high, esp when the models are all building a upper high over the W.Atlantic and so the only route out is for it to follow Earl...which is far from certain as well given both the CMC/ECM don't take it out. Any more then 50-50 is foolish to be honest...and thats coming from someone who NAILED Danielle recurve from 10-15 days out

Anyway yeah this one has a decent shot down the line I'd imagine though I imagine any brief blocking would be gone again by the time this one gets towards the central Atlantic.

[Air Force Met]

Whilst this is a different palce for it, I'd be very careful to go so high, esp when the models are all building a upper high over the W.Atlantic and so the only route out is for it to follow Earl...which is far from certain as well given both the CMC/ECM don't take it out. Any more then 50-50 is foolish to be honest...and thats coming from someone who NAILED Danielle recurve from 10-15 days out

Anyway yeah this one has a decent shot down the line I'd imagine though I imagine any brief blocking would be gone again by the time this one gets towards the central Atlantic.

I don't think saying its more than 50-50 is foolish at all. And it's not "the models"...its some of the models. The GFS is not moving Earl out as quick as the Euro...and I think this is where the EURO is missing it. From day 5 to D7...it moves Earl at 21 MPH through the banana ridge it is projecting to be north and east of it.

If the Euro upper AIR forecast is right...Earl will be lucky to move at 10 mph during that period...and that places him significantly further south (and probably west) than the EURO is showing. I think the GFS probably has the best solution on this. Earl will gets b/w the US mainland and Bermuda...and enhance the trof off the east coast in 7 - 10 days.

Besides...climo is also on my side. 80-90% of all the storms that form in this area this time of year are fish.

That's why I said what I said...nothing foolish about it.

[GCANE]

GFS has it at about 10W in 120 hrs.

[GCANE]

This may be like a setup that Danielle had as she came off the coast.

In about 60 hrs a wave should come off the coast around 15 to 20N.

It may move out and setup an East-to-West axis around 30W.

Interactions of this axis with the ITCZ and the next wave to follow could lead to genesis.

[ColinDelia]

GFS 12z

204 hours


288 hours


324 hours (and a fast developer to its east)

[ColinDelia]

348 hours

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system

[ColinDelia]

Fiction but fun. 384 hours.

Leftern most = sep 4 "strong wave" and two friends