ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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#521 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:01 am

ASCAT caught only NW periphery of Earl:
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#522 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:01 am

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 15:38 GMT le 27 août 2010 — Last Comment: 15:57 GMT le 27 août 2010


Posted by: JeffMasters, 15:20 GMT le 27 août 2010


Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielles across the mid-Atlantic. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows low shear of 5 - 10 knots over Earl, and recent satellite imagery shows the storm is slowly growing more organized. More low-level spiral bands have developed this morning, and the storm has assumed a more circular shape. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next few days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is scheduled for Saturday evening.

Forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. There is a possibility, though, that Earl may see higher shear Saturday night through Sunday, due to strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle. SSTs will steadily warm from 28°C on Friday to almost 30°C by Sunday beneath Earl. The storm may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days, though. In combination, these factors should allow for intensification of Earl into a hurricane 3 - 4 days from now. An unknown wild card in this may be the possible interaction with 97L. Several models predict 97L will grow to hurricane strength and move faster than Earl. It is possible the storms could interfere with each other, or have some counterclockwise rotation around a common center, 4 - 6 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As Earl approaches the central Atlantic 3 - 4 days from now, the storm will encounter a break in the region of high pressure steering it, courtesy of Danielle. This should give enough of a northwestward motion to the storm so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. Earl would then likely continue northwest towards Bermuda. However, if Danielle recurves out to sea faster than expected, this ridge may have time to build back enough to steer Earl over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 35% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and a 8% chance of getting hurricane force winds.


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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#523 Postby tanguy97 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:04 am

its sems now going a little south of due west ????
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#524 Postby TheBurn » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:35 am

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#525 Postby latitude_20 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:37 am

tanguy97 wrote:its sems now going a little south of due west ????


Sure looks like it...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#526 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:41 am

If you look at this water vapor loop. I am beginning to think that there may be some northerly shear that is impinging on Earl.
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#527 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:58 am

Yellow alert has been requiered for the Northern Leewards
Meteo-France Guadeloupe expected 80 km/h of winds Monday in the Northen Leewards, strong showers and tstorms and very rough seas waves should reach averaging 4 to 5 meters. They advice the Northern Leewards to stay tuned.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#528 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:00 pm

Thanks for the update there Gustywind. I hope that Earl will go further north.
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#529 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:06 pm

Outflow seems to be improving & convection is slowly on the increase.

It probably wont hold back much longer.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#530 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:07 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Thanks for the update there Gustywind. I hope that Earl will go further north.

Thanks :) As usual i will try to provide you any important infos. We stay tuned us in the Leewards.
Gustwyind :)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#531 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:12 pm

The latest.

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#532 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:16 pm

Earl continues it trips near the Lesser Antilles
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#533 Postby mascpa » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:17 pm

Its looking better and better
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#534 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:18 pm

Between Dvorak T2 and T3 classification. Closer to T3

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Last edited by ColinDelia on Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#535 Postby Cuber » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:22 pm

Gusty ... it appears that it's time for you and your local islanders to start battening down the hatches and digging out the rainslickers. Stay safe. We appreciate your upclose and personal perspective.
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#536 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:38 pm

I can't believe it, and have not seen it yet. But one of our employees stated this afternoon that Earl could be affecting our weather by next weekend as stated by a local forecaster.

I still think all models are calling for a recurve long before it gets near us.

Problem is if the media is already playing with the idea of affecting us it could cause tourists to cancel or avoid the Labor Day weekend here.

Of course if it does wind up more west, it could pose a problem here.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#537 Postby latitude_20 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:41 pm

Hmmmm - if I'm reading the vapor loop correctly, Earl looks to be encountering very dry air to the west and south - is that right, and if so, thoughts on how that would play out?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#538 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:50 pm

Latitude,

Here is the SAL and Total Precipitable Water. So yeah, there is some dry air. As far as I've ever been able to tell it is somewhat hit or miss on whether a storm ingests dry air or not. I read some papers on SAL and there were a number of storms that were completely surrounded by SAL and still managed to strengthen - though the authors certainly thought it was a negative factor. Also there were quite a few storms that exploded in intensity as soon as they left the SAL.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#539 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:51 pm

SAL
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#540 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:08 pm

Cuber wrote:Gusty ... it appears that it's time for you and your local islanders to start battening down the hatches and digging out the rainslickers. Stay safe. We appreciate your upclose and personal perspective.

Thanks my friend :). I will continue to keep you informed.
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