
ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Last Updated: 15:38 GMT le 27 août 2010 — Last Comment: 15:57 GMT le 27 août 2010
Posted by: JeffMasters, 15:20 GMT le 27 août 2010
Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielles across the mid-Atlantic. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows low shear of 5 - 10 knots over Earl, and recent satellite imagery shows the storm is slowly growing more organized. More low-level spiral bands have developed this morning, and the storm has assumed a more circular shape. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next few days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is scheduled for Saturday evening.
Forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. There is a possibility, though, that Earl may see higher shear Saturday night through Sunday, due to strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle. SSTs will steadily warm from 28°C on Friday to almost 30°C by Sunday beneath Earl. The storm may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days, though. In combination, these factors should allow for intensification of Earl into a hurricane 3 - 4 days from now. An unknown wild card in this may be the possible interaction with 97L. Several models predict 97L will grow to hurricane strength and move faster than Earl. It is possible the storms could interfere with each other, or have some counterclockwise rotation around a common center, 4 - 6 days from now.
History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As Earl approaches the central Atlantic 3 - 4 days from now, the storm will encounter a break in the region of high pressure steering it, courtesy of Danielle. This should give enough of a northwestward motion to the storm so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. Earl would then likely continue northwest towards Bermuda. However, if Danielle recurves out to sea faster than expected, this ridge may have time to build back enough to steer Earl over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 35% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and a 8% chance of getting hurricane force winds.
Last Updated: 15:38 GMT le 27 août 2010 — Last Comment: 15:57 GMT le 27 août 2010
Posted by: JeffMasters, 15:20 GMT le 27 août 2010
Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielles across the mid-Atlantic. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows low shear of 5 - 10 knots over Earl, and recent satellite imagery shows the storm is slowly growing more organized. More low-level spiral bands have developed this morning, and the storm has assumed a more circular shape. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next few days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is scheduled for Saturday evening.
Forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. There is a possibility, though, that Earl may see higher shear Saturday night through Sunday, due to strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle. SSTs will steadily warm from 28°C on Friday to almost 30°C by Sunday beneath Earl. The storm may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days, though. In combination, these factors should allow for intensification of Earl into a hurricane 3 - 4 days from now. An unknown wild card in this may be the possible interaction with 97L. Several models predict 97L will grow to hurricane strength and move faster than Earl. It is possible the storms could interfere with each other, or have some counterclockwise rotation around a common center, 4 - 6 days from now.
History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As Earl approaches the central Atlantic 3 - 4 days from now, the storm will encounter a break in the region of high pressure steering it, courtesy of Danielle. This should give enough of a northwestward motion to the storm so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. Earl would then likely continue northwest towards Bermuda. However, if Danielle recurves out to sea faster than expected, this ridge may have time to build back enough to steer Earl over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 35% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and a 8% chance of getting hurricane force winds.
0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
its sems now going a little south of due west ????
0 likes
- latitude_20
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
- Location: Tulum, Mexico
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
tanguy97 wrote:its sems now going a little south of due west ????
Sure looks like it...
0 likes
- Typhoon_Willie
- Category 5
- Posts: 1042
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
- Location: Greenacres City, Florida
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
If you look at this water vapor loop. I am beginning to think that there may be some northerly shear that is impinging on Earl.
0 likes
- Typhoon_Willie
- Category 5
- Posts: 1042
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
- Location: Greenacres City, Florida
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Thanks for the update there Gustywind. I hope that Earl will go further north.
0 likes
- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Outflow seems to be improving & convection is slowly on the increase.
It probably wont hold back much longer.
It probably wont hold back much longer.
0 likes
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Typhoon_Willie wrote:Thanks for the update there Gustywind. I hope that Earl will go further north.
Thanks

Gustwyind

0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
The latest.

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ColinDelia
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 918
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
- Location: The Beach, FL
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Between Dvorak T2 and T3 classification. Closer to T3




Last edited by ColinDelia on Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Gusty ... it appears that it's time for you and your local islanders to start battening down the hatches and digging out the rainslickers. Stay safe. We appreciate your upclose and personal perspective.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1731
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
I can't believe it, and have not seen it yet. But one of our employees stated this afternoon that Earl could be affecting our weather by next weekend as stated by a local forecaster.
I still think all models are calling for a recurve long before it gets near us.
Problem is if the media is already playing with the idea of affecting us it could cause tourists to cancel or avoid the Labor Day weekend here.
Of course if it does wind up more west, it could pose a problem here.
I still think all models are calling for a recurve long before it gets near us.
Problem is if the media is already playing with the idea of affecting us it could cause tourists to cancel or avoid the Labor Day weekend here.
Of course if it does wind up more west, it could pose a problem here.
0 likes
- latitude_20
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
- Location: Tulum, Mexico
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Hmmmm - if I'm reading the vapor loop correctly, Earl looks to be encountering very dry air to the west and south - is that right, and if so, thoughts on how that would play out?
0 likes
- ColinDelia
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 918
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
- Location: The Beach, FL
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Latitude,
Here is the SAL and Total Precipitable Water. So yeah, there is some dry air. As far as I've ever been able to tell it is somewhat hit or miss on whether a storm ingests dry air or not. I read some papers on SAL and there were a number of storms that were completely surrounded by SAL and still managed to strengthen - though the authors certainly thought it was a negative factor. Also there were quite a few storms that exploded in intensity as soon as they left the SAL.

Here is the SAL and Total Precipitable Water. So yeah, there is some dry air. As far as I've ever been able to tell it is somewhat hit or miss on whether a storm ingests dry air or not. I read some papers on SAL and there were a number of storms that were completely surrounded by SAL and still managed to strengthen - though the authors certainly thought it was a negative factor. Also there were quite a few storms that exploded in intensity as soon as they left the SAL.

0 likes
- ColinDelia
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 918
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
- Location: The Beach, FL
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
Cuber wrote:Gusty ... it appears that it's time for you and your local islanders to start battening down the hatches and digging out the rainslickers. Stay safe. We appreciate your upclose and personal perspective.
Thanks my friend

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests