Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[djmikey]

Radar confirms the "spin" right off the SE LA. coastline.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Your right! I would'nt ignore this just yet folks! As I keep saying, I am suprised the NHC still has no mention. The GOM does some crazy last minute stuff! As Greg stated, there's still a possiblity for this to become an Invest later today.

[Portastorm]

I don't know gang ... not much vorticity showing up yet, even at the lowest levels.

[Aric Dunn]

is the spin at the surface and shouldnt there be plenty of bouys to tell us whats going on?

there plenty of surface obs showing a weak rotation .. problem is it is elongated... the trough axis extends to the sw so a west wind may be hard to find. but with that much convection it would be possible to close off a circ.

[TexWx]

Shouldn't it move into LA anyway?

[Stormcenter]

Click on the link below and then check off "fronts"
and you'll see the area of low is exactly where the spin is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know gang ... not much vorticity showing up yet, even at the lowest levels.

you mean this vorticity ..

[Stormcenter]

It "looks" stationary or maybe drifting westward. IMO

Shouldn't it move into LA anyway?

[Portastorm]

Thanks Aric Dunn ... I was looking at the steering flow and not the correct vorticity map. My "doofus" was showing!

Appreciate the pick up there.

[ColinDelia]

Closer look at the 850 mb vorticity.

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks Aric Dunn ... I was looking at the steering flow and not the correct vorticity map. My "doofus" was showing!

Appreciate the pick up there.

hehe.. no worries thats what we are all here for

[Dean4Storms]

Has a long way to go IMO and the shear will keep anything in check.

[HURAKAN]

Some MLC or LLC is near the Louisiana coast moving slowly west

[Bailey1777]

greg you were saying this blob s. of la. should move w or nw but local stations are saying it is going to lift out to the ne did something change?

[HURAKAN]

Very likely to be mentioned in the TWO at 2 pm

[greg_kfdm_tv]

The trough axis should move slowly to the west or west-northwest this weekend.

[Bailey1777]

what they said was that there is 2 lows the dominant one s. of la. is supposed to head ne and another around the mex. tx. border that is supposed to move n.

[Stormcenter]

Looks to be moving maybe west or very slight south of due west. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

[Bailey1777]

ok sorry greg i see what you were saying now.

[StormClouds63]

Greg:

Are we still looking at roughly a two-week period (early/mid September) when the western Gulf coast will be vulnerable?

Are you thinking the Bermuda ridge builds back in sending systems west or west-northwest?

One thing that may work in our favor is the "wave train" and the pattern being established by these CV storms. Each will continue to leave a weakness which the succeeding storm would likely follow. Maybe the Bermuda high doesn't build back in.

If the CV re-curve train stays active, are we then really looking only at "home-brew" GOM or Caribbean systems. That's my guess. I don't think we'll see any long trackers like Ivan (2004).

After about October 10, our coast should be o.k. I remember in October, 1995, Opal forming in the Bay of Campeche, but being pulled to the northeast due to an approaching cool front.

Thanks for your help. BTW, the new graphics look really nice.

[Tireman4]

I would say that the Texas Gulf Coast, after October 10th, would be ok ( never say never..LOL), but we did have Jerry....

Hurricane Jerry made landfall in Galveston, Texas on October 15 as a category one hurricane. The storm then moved inland, its forward speed always increasing. By the end of October 16, Jerry was absorbed by a frontal system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jerry_(1989)

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