ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

AL, 07, 2010082718, , BEST, 0, 157N, 451W, 40, 1003, TS

18z ... straight west

[ColinDelia]

On the subject ... Check out this loop of Erin and Felix interacting with the SAL in 2001. Apparently it held Erin back surrounding her on three and all four sides at times. When she exited the SAL she became a major.

Erin moistened the air ahead of Felix and there was also a large wave to the east of Felix. Similar to the situation now
where Danielle has been to the west and cleared out some SAL ahead of Earl and where presumably future Fiona is to the East of Earl. Felix became a major in this situation.

Not to compare too much - there are way more factors - but these kind of analogs are fun to compare/contrast to. And always fun to remember our tropical history a bit.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ava18.html

[ColinDelia]

for fun

SAL today


SAL September, 2001

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

No change from SAB Dvorak.

27/1745 UTC 15.7N 45.1W T2.5/2.5 EARL -- Atlantic

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

almost looks like the elongated N.-S. center has split. upper level E-W., lower level is still N.-S.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N
43.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE STORM. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND
47W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA

[cycloneye]

latest

Sandy, will D-MAX close the deal with Earl, or more work for him is needed?

[latitude_20]

Colin - appreciate the reply and info.

[Frank2]

Per the latest VIS, it seems the LLC can be seen just crossing 16N:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, will D-MAX close the deal with Earl, or more work for him is needed?

Earl already has a well-defined LLC, so D-MAX won't be as important as with systems that don't have LLC. This system has had generally favorable conditions and hasn't intensified, when that happens, it's difficult to say but it should intensify over the next few days.

[canes04]

Does he make it to 25n/75w?

I think it will come close, watching closely in MIA.
We should know by Monday if there will be a EC threat.

My friends in the Islands keep an eye on this one.

[Gustywind]

[MGC]

Earl don't look too hot today....likely some dry air getting into the circulation like it did with Danielle...might take a couple of days to shake off and since the system will be shallow will likely track a bit futher west.....MGC

[Frank2]

The images from Meteo France are VERY misleading (hard to say if it's an IR or an over-exposed VIS photo or a combination) - Earl is still a modest 45 mph TS...

[bvigal]

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N 43.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
GARCIA

Don't these people study geography? Fix position both 12z and 18z, 15.7N, is east of ALL the Leeward Islands. And if you count Dominica, which some do, it extends to 15.6N.

[Gustywind]

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N 43.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
GARCIA

Don't these people study geography? Fix position both 12z and 18z, 15.7N, is east of ALL the Leeward Islands. And if you count Dominica, which some do, it extends to 15.6N.

Right good lesson Bvigal, but as we know...

[cycloneye]

Danielle is not moving fast and not moving north but WNW as the VDM'S showed. The question about Earl is, what implications this may have on the track?

[cycloneye]

Looking a little bit better.Coma shape.

[Gustywind]

Looks like more convection is increasing steadily in the southern portion of Earl.