ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1661 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:17 am

ERC starting?

Looks like a weak outer eyewall may be trying to develop.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif
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#1662 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:19 am

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Remains impressive
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#1663 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:24 am

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very strong in the microwave
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#1664 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:25 am

Image ]
a little perspective
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1665 Postby TheBurn » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:37 am

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Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1666 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:50 am

GCANE wrote:ERC starting?

Looks like a weak outer eyewall may be trying to develop.


No evidence of that (eg double wind maxima) from recon flight so far. Decoded vortex message:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2010
Storm Name: Danielle (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 15:49:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°53'N 59°51'W (26.8833N 59.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 478 miles (770 km) to the SE (142°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,632m (8,635ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 353° at 102kts (From the N at ~ 117.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 119kts (~ 136.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:52:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Sfc center not visible

Using typical 90% reduction, flight-level winds of 119kt means surface winds of ~107kt, which is higher than the highest SFMR wind of 96kt. Pick one or more of the following interpretations: a) Danielle peaked earlier, b) the peak satellite intensity estimate of 115kt was too high, c) recon has not yet sampled the highest winds. Again, if either microwave or recon showed a new eyewall, then ERC would be possible, but that does not seem to be the case here.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1667 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:09 pm

Probably a mix of b&c. She is still wobbling westward, it will be interesting where the next vdm is.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1668 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:35 pm

ok forecast is 61.2 is the furtherst W...63 get bermuda in TS gusts...why not issue a TS watch just in case...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1669 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:01 pm

drezee IMO one will go up this afternoon.

i think she will move further west than most models forecast because

1/ look at steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

2. she hasn't gained that much latitude (27 ish N) and there is still a bit of a ridge to her NW and W....so she should go WNW for at least another 8 hours IMO

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
Last edited by cpdaman on Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1670 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:06 pm

Not much gain at all
Center Fix Coordinates: 26°53'N 59°51'W (26.8833N 59.85W)

Still elongated east-west, that does not say sharp turn to me.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1671 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:08 pm

drezee Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:51 pm wrote:movement is close to 300 again...maybe 295 between obs...



Distance between

N Latitude 26 59 0.00, W Longitude 60 5 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 26 53 0.00, W Longitude 59 51 0.00 (Point 2)



25.662 kilometers; 15.945 miles
Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 295.73°
Movement 9 mph
Spot on...
Last edited by drezee on Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1672 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:12 pm

Fun fact: at 940mbar, Danielle is stronger than Bill, Paloma, and Omar, making it the strongest hurricane since Ike.
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#1673 Postby cyclonic chronic » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:23 pm

i agree, no sharp recurve, unless at the last minute. she prob wont speed up till she's well into the recurve. also i think she peaked earlier. recon couldnt see surface center at 1549z, yet on vis sat before that u could almost see little vortices rotating inside the eye. also sat presentation may look cat 4, yet winds arent there. it is a bigger storm, so a 939 pressure might not relate to the usual pressure/wind relationship. still has a little while to intensify.
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#1674 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:32 pm

27/1745 UTC 27.1N 60.1W T6.0/6.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

115 knots
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1675 Postby TheBurn » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:39 pm

Image
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#1676 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:48 pm

AL, 06, 2010082718, , BEST, 0, 271N, 601W, 115, 942, HU

18z ... stays at 115 knots
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#1677 Postby cyclonic chronic » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:51 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

man, they totally cut this one off!!WTF?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1678 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:52 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1679 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:13 pm

ADT keeps estimating colder and colder tops. In the past half hour is the coldest estimate since it developed a warm eye

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... L-list.txt
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1680 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:16 pm

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