ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[carolina_73]

Earl looks like it is slowly organizing. That is a beautiful beach. The ocean looks so calm. It would be hard to surf those 1 inch waves

[cycloneye]

Sunset over Earl.

[msbee]

Can one of you Islanders post a detailed map of the NE Islands to show the area under watches?

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/carib.htm

Just to make life more interesting, on a little 37 square mile island, French St. Martin (the northern part of the island) is under a tropical storm watch. Dutch St. Maarten is not.

[cycloneye]

Is now night over Earl.

[msbee]

Earl looks like it is slowly organizing. That is a beautiful beach. The ocean looks so calm. It would be hard to surf those 1 inch waves

The seas around St. Maarten right now are incredibly flat and calm...the ocean looks like a lake.
We have absolutely no wind.

[KWT]

System looks a mess right now, not good news for the Caribbean either because it probably won't feel Danielle's tug till later.

Threat to the Caribbean IMO now something like 60-70%, expect the models to keep shifting slightly west with time...threat to the east coast, IMO maybe as low as 5-10% simply because the troughing is still a constant issue right through to 168hrs when the pattern starts to change....though not low enough to totally rule out IMO either.

[fci]

More and more likely this does hit the NE Caribbean from the looks of things, not gaining any latitude at all today and if anything may have slightly shaved off some latitude.

This will probably be good news for the East coast though and bad news for the islands, because this is a highly likely to recurve system maybe like Luis was...(pray it don't get that strong!) and if that was to occur future Fiona would instead of being a threat to the east coast/Florida probably skirt away...

The fact that its moving so quickly to the west greatly worries me becuase it suggests the steering pattern is strong still...need it to weaken pronto really...

Kanes Will Turn:
Why does a course closer to The Islands bode well for the East Coast and Florida? I am not scientifically trained like you are, so maybe I am missing something; but a course further south would seem to me to open up the door for storms to track closer to the East Coast and not skirt away.
Please elaborate for me.
Thanks!

[artist]

Can one of you Islanders post a detailed map of the NE Islands to show the area under watches?

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/carib.htm

Just to make life more interesting, on a little 37 square mile island, French St. Martin (the northern part of the island) is under a tropical storm watch. Dutch St. Maarten is not.

been thinking about you guys out there today.

[KWT]

Its not for Earl but Fiona/97L fci, and its not a certainty at all but look at the models that have Fiona getting close to the US, its the same models that turn Earl out near 60-65W...that because with Earl out of the way on a quicker recurve the steering patterns withdraw quicker and upper high can build in further west behind it...

Whilst if Earl is still trundling along the connection to the upper trough will still be inducing a weakness and hence lift out Fiona as well as Earl eventually.

The biggest risk for the E.coast with regards to Earl is if the trough is much delayed (48-72hrs delayed, which is a little unlikely) then it'll turn right into the Carolinas maybe like Hugo did BUT right now I see little evidence of the synoptics being condusive for that...hence why I think its a low risk option.

[shah8]

The thing that bugs me about your reasoning is that it seems like a recipe for a double-hit on the EC if the trough moves too fast above it.

[KWT]

Possibly but I feel confident the pattern won't break quickly enough for Earl to be a large threat...then again obviously if the turn doesn't happen till its close to the bahamas then the pattern will support a hit for the EC...but right now thats still IMO fairly low risk...

Anyway Earl still looks a real elongated mess, going to have to try to sort that out if its going to become any stronger then it is right now.

[Migle]

Earl is a mess right now, but the islands are definitely going to see something from this one. Looks like its heading straight West right now, so hopefully it does make that curve right before.

[Gustywind]

[shah8]

There really is a lot of time for Earl to be a screw-up. Before the horror show starts, of course.

[KWT]

If anything it seems like the elongated pattern has forced the system to go a touch south of west looking at that image...I'm sure its lost a touch of latitude recently?

People in the NE Islands need to get ready, its going to be a close call and if this one does strengthen like progged TS winds would be likely even if it stayed a little to the NE.

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

If anything it seems like the elongated pattern has forced the system to go a touch south of west looking at that image...I'm sure its lost a touch of latitude recently?

People in the NE Islands need to get ready, its going to be a close call and if this one does strengthen like progged TS winds would be likely even if it stayed a little to the NE.

Normally I don't get into the wobble wars, but wobbles can make the difference in this scenerio....

[cycloneye]

Normally I don't get into the wobble wars, but wobbles can make the difference in this scenerio....

Yes,for the islands is going to be huge how the wobbles can bring Earl closer or not.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Islands will have a very close call back to back

[KWT]

Normally I don't get into the wobble wars, but wobbles can make the difference in this scenerio....

Yeah it really could make the difference between the Islands getting only low end TS winds and possibly getting hurricane winds IF it ramps up quickly enough, though it sure is taking its time to strengthen right now...