ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here are the probabilities of having Tropical Storm force winds. Puerto Rico increases between 20%-30%, Antigua, St Maarten between 40-50%, British/U.S Virgin Islands between 30%-40%.

[Gustywind]

Bursting steadily and nicely

[bvigal]

Half a degree to the south could be huge in terms of possible effects on the northeastern islands...and look at the 5 day cone; if it follows the western edge, it will make landfall in the US...definitely not a fish yet, not by a long shot.

Truer words have never been spoken!

[ROCK]

here is the latest steering for a pressure of 1000-1010mb....with the separation of Dee to the north your able to squeeze in a piece of the ridge....so westward we go until he finds Dee's weakness. If Earl remains at same the intensity further west is not out of the question...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Riptide]

here is the latest steering for a pressure of 1000-1010mb....with the separation of Dee to the north your able to squeeze in a piece of the ridge....so westward we go until he finds Dee's weakness. If Earl remains at same the intensity further west is not out of the question...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Earl will never find Dee's weakness, a trough or ULL will need to recurve Earl.

[ROCK]

here is the latest steering for a pressure of 1000-1010mb....with the separation of Dee to the north your able to squeeze in a piece of the ridge....so westward we go until he finds Dee's weakness. If Earl remains at same the intensity further west is not out of the question...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Earl will never find Dee's weakness, a trough or ULL will need to recurve Earl.

not understand what you are saying? you can clearly see the path Dee has carved out...now if that fills faster then all bets are off....

[Riptide]

here is the latest steering for a pressure of 1000-1010mb....with the separation of Dee to the north your able to squeeze in a piece of the ridge....so westward we go until he finds Dee's weakness. If Earl remains at same the intensity further west is not out of the question...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Earl will never find Dee's weakness, a trough or ULL will need to recurve Earl.

not understand what you are saying? you can clearly see the path Dee has carved out...now if that fills faster then all bets are off....

I still think Earl will reach at least 70 W before losing all western component, it's going to be close for sure.

[Evil Jeremy]

Theoretically, how far west would Earl need to go before it becomes clear that he is not recurving as a result of Danielle and the weakness? I'm not saying this is going to happen, I fully believe that Earl will recurve east of the Bahamas, but in theory, what point would Earl need to reach for it to miss the opening?

[Riptide]

Theoretically, how far west would Earl need to go before it becomes clear that he is not recurving as a result of Danielle and the weakness? I'm not saying this is going to happen, I fully believe that Earl will recurve east of the Bahamas, but in theory, what point would Earl need to reach for it to miss the opening?

I would say that Earl would need to stay below 20N if the trough is as strong as progged. 25N might work of the trough becomes weaker, forward speed is also important. I'm still worried that Earl will outrun the trough and allow it to dig behind him which would shoot him northwards at whatever longitude he is on.(This is what happend on the 18z GFS.)

[HURAKAN]

Earl's engines are rumbling!

[Evil Jeremy]

Earl's engines are rumbling!

Indeed, and clearly to the WSW. Center relocation, stair stepping, whatever the reason is, its not good. I'm sure Luis won't like Earl's current movement lol.

[gatorcane]

If earl deepens faster than expected it would take advantage of ne upper-level winds from danielles outflow pushing it more on the left side of the guidance. So a stronger system means more west this time at least the next few days.

[weatherSnoop]

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Earl's engines are rumbling!

In this shot, looks like he is taking the sheer in stride and reacting by dipping below it

[WeatherGuesser]

Did E really follow D that closely that the tracks look like an overlay?


Upper east coast may need to keep an eye on this one for a while.

[Florida1118]

Better start tracking W-WNW again...I dont think the NHC will shift their track all that much

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like those thunderstorms are getting better organized around Earl's center there. Those in the NE Caribbean islands should keep close tabs on this system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[BatzVI]

Trust me, we are.....

[fci]

Looks like those thunderstorms are getting better organized around Earl's center there. Those in the NE Caribbean islands should keep close tabs on this system.

Oh, I'd say there is no need to remind them to watch. They are monitoring very, very closely.