ATL: EARL - Models

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terrapintransit
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#561 Postby terrapintransit » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:28 pm

OK ok...be gentle. It was just an honest assumption...I'm done.[/quote]
Just fooling around, man. :wink:[/quote]

All good....back to the party :bd:
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#562 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well unless Earl gets sheared and stays weak looks like it should pass by the leewards to the northeast...closer than Danielle but should stay enough to the northeast to not be a major problem. This has been my thinking since earlier this week. Notice how tight the model consensus is now.


Yeah, it has been tightly clustered the entire time and Earl has been tracking south and faster than the model consensus the entire time...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#563 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:31 pm

Ok folks,lets get back to the topic of models for Earl.
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#564 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:40 pm

Actually I may have it wrong this time. This may be a case where a stronger Earl may be influenced more by the ne upper level winds due in part to the outflow of Danielle. Something to consider here.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#565 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:57 pm

00z NAM

Image

Image
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#566 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 27, 2010 10:01 pm

I think Earl could feel the sub-tropical ridge on its SW periphery a bit more than these models are indicating and I would really watch it if I lived in the NE Carib. Islands.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#567 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 10:54 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

GFS rolling....out 30hrs
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#568 Postby lester » Fri Aug 27, 2010 10:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#569 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 10:58 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

there is the weakness..running out of ridge...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#570 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:03 pm

Still ridging between Danielle and Earl

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#571 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:06 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]Still ridging between Danielle and Earl

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]


will it be enough is the question.... :?:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#572 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:09 pm

Earl is way down there at hour 84. He reaches 65W at 20N.
Image
Last edited by Riptide on Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#573 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:09 pm

what the hell...GFS stuck on 42hr.... :roll:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#574 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:10 pm

Really far south on the GFS
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#575 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:11 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Really far south on the GFS


yes it is and Dee has high tailed it out of here also....
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#576 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:12 pm

90 HOURS

[img]Image[/img]
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#577 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:12 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Really far south on the GFS

Damn, that is one hell of a ridge. I guess you could consider yourself lucky because it is moving out to the east quickly.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#578 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:12 pm

I think the NHC GFS page has taken on too many hits!!.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#579 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:14 pm

102 HOURS

Fiona looks to hit the Islands this run

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#580 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:16 pm

Earl is not in a hurry either to gain lat.....
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