ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#661 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:45 pm

fci wrote:
Typhoon_Willie wrote:Looks like those thunderstorms are getting better organized around Earl's center there. Those in the NE Caribbean islands should keep close tabs on this system.


Oh, I'd say there is no need to remind them to watch. They are monitoring very, very closely.


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#662 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:47 pm

I guess the question of the evening is how far WSW is Earl going to go overnight. Every degree can have a large impact on the cone.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#663 Postby Hugo1989 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:49 pm

Why? if the gusts of 25 MPH no damage in San Juan.
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#664 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:51 pm

Microwave slightly better than earlier today:
Image

ASCAT swath on western edge of Earl with peak winds there ~30kt:
Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#665 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:54 pm

Great, now the center is back around 15N (or are my eyes wrong?).
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#666 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:57 pm

Imo, center is near 16N. Northeast shear pushed convection to the southwest giving the apparence of a wsw movement.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#667 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:05 am

Earl
Image

Dvorak examples
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#668 Postby Migle » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:06 am

I am thinking 15N as well.
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#669 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:18 am

THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
Image
Map from UW-CIMSS TCTrak with IR sat, obs, shear overlays.
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#670 Postby aerology » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:38 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The models have now started to see a swing [wobble] toward the South west as a result of the tidal effects of the moon soon passing over head for the night, about 4 degrees North of the Equator, the dome of raised ionosphere, and troposphere underneath is pulling Earl in toward the center of the passing bulge effect.

Resulting in a pulse of growth in a Southwestern direction from its established track, after the moon passes nearly (with in 12 degrees) overhead, it will may rebound back most of the way before tomorrow night, when the moon passes about 8 degrees South of Earl’s position, pulling it further south again.

By the night of the 29th, from moon rise to overhead, will set the stage for a pulse of growth and movement mostly straight west, past the 30th the moon will be above the 16 North latitude line and be pulling Earl north, for the re-curve into the continental air mass coming off of the South East US coast, and be forced to slide on North, closer to shore than Danielle will.

I had original (back in July) thought the westward progress made on the 28th, 29th, and 30th would be enough (I’m still learning) to put it past the tip of Florida, and the re-curve on the 31st and 1st, bring it into the panhandle, and out through Georgia / South Carolina, and out of the area by the 4th September.
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Re:

#671 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:50 am

aerology wrote:The models have now started to see a swing [wobble] toward the South west as a result of the tidal effects of the moon soon passing over head for the night, about 4 degrees North of the Equator, the dome of raised ionosphere, and troposphere underneath is pulling Earl in toward the center of the passing bulge effect.


Wow, really? Now THAT'S something I've never heard of before. But something is going on, it certainly doesn't seem like Earl is tracking the forecast and the errors are really starting to add up in a bad way. If the trend continues for the next day there's going to be a lot of scrambling going on. Still looks unlikely Earl will hit the east coast but a lot of the islands may be under the gun soon. I'll be very interested to see the visible in the morning to get a better fix on the true center.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#672 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:17 am

Definitely moving SW

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#673 Postby blp » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:24 am

Ivanhater wrote:Definitely moving SW


Agreed.... Below was the 2am. I am think 15.8 based on your image.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 48.6W
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#674 Postby andyis » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:51 am

Curse you moon! :grr:
Earl is seriously trucking southwest like he has somewhere to go in a hurry!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#675 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:04 am

Losing latitude


AL, 07, 2010082806, , BEST, 0, 156N, 492W, 50, 999, TS,

AL, 07, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 470W, 45, 1002,
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#676 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:09 am

Ivanhater wrote:Losing latitude


AL, 07, 2010082806, , BEST, 0, 156N, 492W, 50, 999, TS,

AL, 07, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 470W, 45, 1002,


Also winds up to 60 mph. Very interesting.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#677 Postby george_r_1961 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:18 am

I think the chances of this affecting the southeast and mid atlantic coast just went up a tad :eek:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#678 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:47 am

Brent wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Losing latitude


AL, 07, 2010082806, , BEST, 0, 156N, 492W, 50, 999, TS,

AL, 07, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 470W, 45, 1002,


Also winds up to 60 mph. Very interesting.


Really hard to say if it's really losing latitude. Given how broad the circulation has been, one could have picked any slew of points and still gotten the center. Center is probably developing in a smaller area farther south than the previous fixes--nearer to the deep convection. Check out the microwave; looks like it's for real this time.

george_r_1961 wrote:I think the chances of this affecting the southeast and mid atlantic coast just went up a tad :eek:


Not really. Models have been pretty consistent from run to run, and there's still much uncertainty concerning the extent of ridging beyond five days. Besides, the stronger it gets, the more likely it will miss the US.
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#679 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:35 am

NHC is still calling Uncle Earl back out to sea despite having Watches posted for a couple of islands.
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Re:

#680 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:47 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:NHC is still calling Uncle Earl back out to sea despite having Watches posted for a couple of islands.


Where did they say it was 100% going out to sea? I'd love to know.
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