ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#681 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:48 am

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#682 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:54 am

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Re: Re:

#683 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:13 am

TheDreamTraveler wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:NHC is still calling Uncle Earl back out to sea despite having Watches posted for a couple of islands.


Where did they say it was 100% going out to sea? I'd love to know.


Who said anything about 100% ?

The only thing that's 100% right now is that nobody knows anything 100%.

The NHC forecast track though shows a turn after a near miss or glancing blow on the islands.
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#684 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:34 am

:eek: Oh Earl has not gained any latitude this morning! That's strongly surprising...
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#685 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:13 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

AT 500 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AS
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A NE SWELL ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE DANNIELLE WITH A
PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES THOUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EASTERLY SWELLS...
FRONT RUNNERS FROM EARL...WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS EARL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. MARINERS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 70 40 40 40
STT 90 80 91 82 / 40 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/10
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#686 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:16 am

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#687 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:23 am

Looking very likely this one hits the NE Caribbean Islands with a direct hit now, I just can't see it gaining enough latitude to avoid them from this point given the synoptics.

Showing subtle signs of strengthening though its presentation is still far from classic so only slow strengthening is likely for the next 24hrs, but I'd still imagine it'd be a hurricane by the time it gets close to the NE Caribbean.
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#688 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:28 am

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Re:

#689 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:32 am

KWT wrote:Looking very likely this one hits the NE Caribbean Islands with a direct hit now, I just can't see it gaining enough latitude to avoid them from this point given the synoptics.

Showing subtle signs of strengthening though its presentation is still far from classic so only slow strengthening is likely for the next 24hrs, but I'd still imagine it'd be a hurricane by the time it gets close to the NE Caribbean.

:eek: That's amazing to see how fast it races 33 km/h and how he is able to strenghten :roll: Wind are up to 50 kts now with gusts 60 kts. Not good news at all for much of the NE caribbean. We shoud continue to monitor very very carefully this feature.
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#690 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:39 am

Should be a hurricane in the next 12-18hrs Gustywind so this one indeed nees to be watched.

Core is setting up down at 15.5N, so highly likely this probably hits the NE Caribbean from this point...
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#691 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:44 am

What is the latest from the Best track???
I wonder if the track has not shifted more south and west... :roll:
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#692 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:45 am

Hey Cycloneye have got the latest from the Best Track?
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#693 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:48 am

Well looking at the Microwave imagery it suggests the system is currently strengthening and is developing an inner core and is down at 15.5N, so it likely has lost a little bit of latitude in the last 12hrs.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#694 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:52 am

Could the two systems merging qualify as the Fujiwhara effect?
Last edited by wzrgirl1 on Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#695 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:53 am

Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye have got the latest from the Best Track?



Best track comes out between 8-9 AM. Lets see what position and strengh it will be.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#696 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:59 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:Could the two systems merging qualify as the Fujiwhara effect?


It probably would but chances of that happening are tiny, I think the GFS is out to lunch with that solution to be honest!

Looks like its strengthening to me, recon probably will find a 55-60kts system when they go in today, which I assume is still happening?
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#697 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:01 am

NHC has made a big shift between 2 AM to 5AM, 16,1N to 15,7W, so 0,5degres more to the south . That's a bit suprising each weather forecast.
If this trend is confirmed during the next couple of hours i won't be surprised to see more TS Watches... and this time why not close to Guadeloupe and even Dominica. Whereas, Meteo-France has not requiered any yellow alert for Guadeloupe, maybe later this morning or this afternoon if Earl continues to race more west. We all know how these TS are sometimes unpredictable and versatile.

One thing for sure, all in the islands of the Leewards should continue to follow Earl's path. Stay tuned.
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Re: Re:

#698 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:02 am

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye have got the latest from the Best Track?



Best track comes out between 8-9 AM. Lets see what position and strengh it will be.

:) Ok thanks Luis.
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#699 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:05 am

Without a doubt more watches will probably need to come out given this system jogged a little WSW last night...though interestingly the hurricane models are a smidge further north then they were last night...
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Re:

#700 Postby painkillerr » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:07 am

KWT wrote:Looking very likely this one hits the NE Caribbean Islands with a direct hit now, I just can't see it gaining enough latitude to avoid them from this point given the synoptics.

Showing subtle signs of strengthening though its presentation is still far from classic so only slow strengthening is likely for the next 24hrs, but I'd still imagine it'd be a hurricane by the time it gets close to the NE Caribbean.



I'm new to this forum but could not agree more. US and BVI will take a hit. Even if EARL begins to recurve, it will be all over them!
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