Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[poof121]

Seems upper high in the western Gulf may be moving towards this system...

1800Z



1500Z

[poof121]

This one is only 30 m up @ 28 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1

27 kts @ 24 m:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PSTL1

[southerngale]

NWS LCH isn't impressed at all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE
PLEASANT EVENING WILL BE IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONCORDANTLY AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

A WEAKNESS EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AGAIN, IT APPEARS THE MOST ABUNDANT
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

CONTRARY TO THE ATLANTIC THE TROPICAL GULF REMAINS QUIET AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

[srainhoutx]

As well as HGX...

FXUS64 KHGX 272044
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER N TX BROUGHT A WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO SE TX
TODAY. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LA TO
NEAR TAMPICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PREFERRED THE SLOWER GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NAM SOLUTION. BOTH
MODELS ARE SLOWER AND A BIT DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAY 12Z
RUNS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY...
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE TOWARD AND
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES BASICALLY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SE TX. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TO MEANDER EASTWARD AND THEN BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD OF SE TX
BREAKING DOWN AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND POSSIBLE. IN THE
MEANTIME...A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 100
AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

[kevin]

Looks like there are still clouds in the Gulf.

Hopefully if this develops it'll be a fish.

[setxndnfan]

Looks like there are still clouds in the Gulf.

Hopefully if this develops it'll be a fish.

? Where will it go to be a fish?

[LaBreeze]

Shear is our friend this season in the GOM.
If it were not for the shear we'd have big problems
with this. IMO


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Totally agree. We're having absolutely beautiful weather here in SW LA. Breeze is nice out of the north. I'm hearing that it is just an ULL offshore, am I correct? It should be moving to the west. I've noticed on radar that rains seem to be slowly migrating to the west, but currently are still in SE LA. Such a nice day out today!

[LaBreeze]

[quote="poof121"]Seems upper high in the western Gulf may be moving towards this system...

If the upper high in the western Gulf does move towards this system, how will this affect this system? Just wondering.

[mpic]

Channel 13 Houston is saying we have a 40 % chance of getting rain on Sunday by the low o
over by Mexico. We need it here really bad!

[Bailey1777]

sure has the look, but i guess looks can be deceiving.

[TheBurn]

[Aquawind]

I think this area will be yellow on the NHC map tomorrow.

[Javlin]

Does have the look,and at the end of trof? and has both lower covergence and upper divergence.Don't know;little close to land though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our chief met here at 6 talked a little about this system saying there is a weak low south of SE LA but said their models do nothing with it and bring it north in MS by sunday. Sure does have "the look" though.

[tailgater]

Maybe if they ignore it, it will go away. Obviously should have gotten a code yellow at least. Surface obs show a broad closed low(much tighter than TD5), winds of 30+mph to the south and east. the convection is weak and sheared but forecast to weaken some in the next 24 to 48 hrs.
radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes
Short wave loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html
surface obs
http://madis.noaa.gov/sfc_display/

[ColinDelia]

Vorticity.


Can see some real "spin" here S of LA
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Westerly shear

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Certainly a closed surface low near 28.9 north and 92.3 west. Little movement shown....perhaps a slow north-northeast drift.

Can't see this doing much with the westerly shear and the proximity to land. However, heavy rains will continue over southeast Louisiana as the low should move slowly to the north over the next 24 hours.

[ColinDelia]

GFS forecasts significantly less shear south of LA in 6-12 hours; but them shear forecasts seem tricky IMO

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[LSU2001]

Been raining here HARD since about 4:30 am. under flash flood watch and the t storms are training over the same areas of the coast. Looks to be a real wet and nasty day down on the Bayou
Tim

[Steve]

Yeah, crazy year for Gulf Lows. I think there have been probably 3 or 4 depressions that they just didn't bother with (Bonnie, TD #5, 95L, this one, etc.). I mean if you're going to get 6-10 inches of rain from a low pressure in the subtropics that is closed off at the surface with 20-30mph winds on-shore, you have something more than a surface trough or whatever. So besides whatever else 2010 is known for, it will be the year of the unaccounted for Ghost Lows that hit Louisiana and the northern Gulf. In other seasons, a lot of this stuff would have been classified as TD's. There's no doubt in my mind whatsoever.