ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[fd122]

Am I the only one that's unimpressed with Earl's structure?

Nope. I too am unimpressed by its structure. The high speed at which Earl is traveling probably is at least partly responsible for this. Having lived through Hurricane Luis in ’95, you must think this looks like a hunk of junk! (You were living in Antigua at the time, right?)

Anyway, you peeps in the Leewards should still continue to monitor Earl’s progress. Sometimes these systems can throw a surprise or two.

I was young but I'll never forget Luis. We didn't have electricity for almost 3 months.

[hurricanefloyd5]

dose earl seem to be forming a CDO/an eye closing off???



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Cyclone1]

Stays at 60 for 11.

[cycloneye]

From 11 AM discussion.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO
THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

[srainhoutx]

Also from the 11:00 AM Discussion...

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED
FROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER
HURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER.
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE
MOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG
THE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

[plasticup]

A little more south and/or west, and Earl will be bumping up against the East Coast. The models aren't there, but the trend is heading that way.

I'll be curious to see whether today's weaker Danielle can sustain the trough that they are predicting.

[cycloneye]

The NE corner of PR is in cone.

[KWT]

A little more south and/or west, and Earl will be bumping up against the East Coast. The models aren't there, but the trend is heading that way.

I'll be curious to see whether today's weaker Danielle can sustain the trough that they are predicting.

All depends on how the upper trough sets-up really, the models still are suggesting a close but not quite set-up with a recurve at 70W but odds are maybe increasing that this at least could get close, and this is coming from someone who has been convinced of a recurve with Earl...now looking abit more iffy...

At 35N we will see probably a fairly sharp recurve though, just like we are seeing with Danielle right now....

Still not all that impressive at the moment though convection looks a bit better, that double blob presentation needs to ease down though it seems to be in the process of occuring right now

[gatorcane]

looks to me like it is not now going due west anymore. I see hints its starting to want to gain some lattitude. The gradual turn should be commencing over the next day or so.

As I mentioned before, those that wanted it to head more west needed it to experience RI, so it would experience the upper-level influence of Danielle's outflow which would push it more W or WSW. Same thing happened to Ike if you recall due to Hanna's outflow.

The fact it is staying weak means it will feel the weakness more.

[KWT]

Yeah its gaining slight lattiude but its nothing too impressive though to be honest right now Gatorcane, still probably going to come very close to the Islands if not score a direct hit. The current NHC track looks good to me out to 5 days, I'd probably draw something similar with a recurve occuring past 35N.

[Gustywind]

[ColinDelia]

Earl has that classic tropical storm look

[cheezyWXguy]

Earl has that classic tropical storm look

Lol no he doesn't. Go take a look at the visible imagery. The center is exposed due to westerly shear. However, the shear is supposed to lessen by tomorrow so its not a big problem for the storm. Unfortunately, that IS a big problem for the islands.

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass shows well defined circulation with peak measured winds of 40kt, although ASCAT does have a low bias.

[KWT]

Earl has that classic tropical storm look

Lol no he doesn't. Go take a look at the visible imagery. The center is exposed due to westerly shear. However, the shear is supposed to lessen by tomorrow so its not a big problem for the storm. Unfortunately, that IS a big problem for the islands.

Yeah if you look at the Vis imagery you can see the LLC starting to race ahead of the convection at the moment, it was just starting to gain a good apperence but Vis imagery shows the shear has increased again...that being said it probably will only be a brief problem I'd imagine.

The good news is the center has jogged WNW recently and now up at 16.5N...any such motion is good news for the Caribbean Islands!

[Boriken]

Looks like center is exposed and 16.4

[KWT]

Wobbles WNW at this stage are going to be real vital for the Islands, every bit of wobbling is going to help.

[gatorcane]

Wobbles WNW at this stage are going to be real vital for the Islands, every bit of wobbling is going to help.

looks like it will miss the next forecast point to the north.

[supercane]

SE periphery of an upper-level cyclone should be favorable in terms of outflow, but apparently the 15kt of NEly shear still preventing any fast intensification (fortunately).

UW-CIMSS TCTrak overlay with vis sat, obs, shear, old forecast track.

BTW, hope these aren't wobbles, which imply only temporary movement, but an actual WNW motion.

[ColinDelia]

Earl has that classic tropical storm look

Lol no he doesn't. Go take a look at the visible imagery. The center is exposed due to westerly shear. However, the shear is supposed to lessen by tomorrow so its not a big problem for the storm. Unfortunately, that IS a big problem for the islands.

That was the joke

Two lobes. Exposed center. A "classic tropical storm".