ATL: FIONA - Models

[Ivanhater]

The image changed on me

168 hours

[Ivanhater]

Looks like South Carolina will be hit on this run

[KWT]

12z ECM suggests another close shave for the E.coast, heading north at 75W at 934mbs, wouldn't take much of a westerly trend to occur for it to be a landfalling major...

[Ivanhater]

12z ECM suggests another close shave for the E.coast, heading north at 75W at 934mbs, wouldn't take much of a westerly trend to occur for it to be a landfalling major...

Heading WNW toward South Carolina at 216 hours

[cycloneye]

What I question is why GFS doesn't see the synoptic pattern the same as CMC,NOGAPS and ECMWF?

[TheDreamTraveler]

I can't believe how strong it keeps making Fiona. This is crazy.

[ConvergenceZone]

This was the one that I thought was Earl earlier when I mentioned that no models were showing Fiona developing, and what I thought was Danielle is actually Earl....
So please forgive me.

[Ivanhater]

Bending west at 228 hours...Could even hit Georgia but still likely South Carolina

Another shift South and west

[Ivanhater]

South Carolina hit

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

737
WHXX01 KWBC 281843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100828 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  1800   100829  0600   100829  1800   100830  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  30.2W   14.9N  33.7W   15.9N  38.0W   16.9N  42.6W
BAMD    13.7N  30.2W   14.3N  33.2W   15.2N  36.6W   16.1N  40.2W
BAMM    13.7N  30.2W   14.4N  33.7W   15.2N  37.7W   15.9N  42.2W
LBAR    13.7N  30.2W   14.1N  33.4W   14.7N  37.1W   15.3N  41.0W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  1800   100831  1800   100901  1800   100902  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  47.5W   20.3N  57.0W   27.0N  65.5W   34.3N  71.2W
BAMD    17.3N  44.0W   20.3N  51.2W   22.9N  56.5W   23.5N  59.0W
BAMM    16.7N  46.7W   18.9N  55.4W   24.1N  62.4W   31.1N  65.7W
LBAR    16.0N  45.1W   18.1N  53.5W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        55KTS          69KTS          74KTS          70KTS
DSHP        55KTS          69KTS          74KTS          70KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  30.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  26.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  24.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Brent]

Wow, Hugo redux

[Ivanhater]

Basically landfall on the Georgia/South Carolina border after it bent back west

[TwisterFanatic]

Any idea how strong?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, that's the first model run where I see where the storm is actually moving inland as opposed to just grazing the coast....

[Ivanhater]

Euro ensembles should be interesting in a couple of hours

[x-y-no]

Wow, Hugo redux

That's what I was going to say ...

[shah8]

Basically, a very large Camille but not as big as Katrina. WNW? Over gulf stream? *&%*&$ it even looks like it has a chance of affecting me in ATL, that's how strong it is.

[shah8]

Don't get *too* tight with Hugo. The Euro is talking a moderate sized Camille. Hugo was bad. This is annihilation.

[WeatherEmperor]

Correct me if I am wrong please. So basically now we have 2 camps the models go to. The first set contains the GFS, UKMET and GFDL which recurve the tropical cyclone between 60-65W. The other set contains the Euro, CMC and NOGAPS which keep the system further south and really close to the South East coast. Is this correct or do I see it wrong??

[blp]

Wow! Just one run though and we need to see the 00z but it certainly gives some credence to the idea that one of these systems is going to have to break through. Even with the persistent pattern of the trough you will have periods of the high building back in. This continues the west trend of the models.