Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Boriken]

W at 23 mph wow he is in a hurry. how this changes the timing if any?

[kungfut]

not sure about the timing. that western end blew up quick.
most of my friends here have no idea... they think it will miss, but are not paying attention.
It's not a cat 5 but it can still do some hell of a damage to a lil island like st john.

[Gustywind]

Here is an interresting webcam of St Barth :
http://www.innoserv.fr/megapixelc06.html

[cycloneye]

Here is an interresting webcam of St Barth :
http://www.innoserv.fr/megapixelc06.html

Thanks for posting that cam.Is now at the first post of thread.

[Gustywind]

Here is an interresting webcam of St Barth :
http://www.innoserv.fr/megapixelc06.html

Thanks for posting that cam.Is now at the first post of thread.

No problem Luis thanks for posting it!!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EARL REACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THIS TROPICAL STORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT
TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY ALLOWED FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. THE BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR 20 NORTH IN LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AROUND DAYBREAK...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE INTERIOR...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON TROPICAL STORM EARL.
AS OF 200 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. EARL HAS INCREASED
ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23
MPH...37 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM EARL IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN TRACK...AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND REMAINS IN THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM
AS THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DIURNALLY INDUCED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CONDS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PR AT LEAST UNTIL 28/22Z. TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL TIL
29/12Z. ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR DURG THE AFTN...IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS FROM 29/18-29/22Z.
FAINT VA EMISSION CONTINUED FROM MONTSERRAT BUT IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AS WINDS NEAR THE VOLCANO
HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

[Gustywind]

Here is a few webcam of the BVI:
http://www.nannycay.com/webcams/
http://leverickbay.org/webcam.htm

Anguilla webcam:
http://www.mycaribbean.com/panos/webcam_bg.html

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT at 5 PM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AND SIZE OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[msbee]

using stormcarib how close can it get tool, it says

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 50.1 miles (80.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 43.2 hours (Monday, August 30 at 12:12PM AST).

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 282042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS
CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY
OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG
THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN
INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY
DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND
WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE
WIND RADII.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.5N 54.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 57.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 59.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.3N 61.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 63.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.0N 67.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 70.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 72.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

using stormcarib how close can it get tool, it says

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 50.1 miles (80.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 43.2 hours (Monday, August 30 at 12:12PM AST).

oh boy that's pretty close! Hope that Earl won't stay too much time in our vicinity in the Leewards...

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... rtin.shtml

NOTICE TO MARINERS - Reference Tropical Storm Earl
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 18:59:13 -0400

[b]NOTICE TO MARINERS – Friday, August 27, 2010


Inclement weather is expected near the island of Sint Maarten on Monday August 30th, 2010. This will possibly restrict bridge openings due to expected high wind gusts.



We would therefore advise all vessels outside of Oyster pond and the Simpson bay lagoon to seek early shelter in the lagoon on Sunday August 29th, 2010.



Normal bridge opening times will be 09:30 and 11:30 and 17:30. Should there be an increase in marine traffic, extra openings will be added before noon or after 16:30. The bridge attendant will be on standby on VHF Channel 12 to advise all waiting vessels of extra opening times.



All vessels that wish to enter must call the “Bridge Attendant” on VHF channel 12. Emergency contact will be Mr. Sam Peterson also available via mobile phone: 5202059.



Once a vessel has entered the lagoon, operators are requested to proceed to the designated marina or anchorage, outside of the fairways and holding area by the bridge, so as not to obstruct traffic.



All vessels are advised to lay out anchor and anchor gear sufficient and capable of holding the vessel for the expected wind conditions and expected directions. Please do not leave any objects on deck or on the masts and bimini’s which may come loose and add wind area or foul other vessels anchors or propulsion.



We will continue to monitor the progress of now Tropical Storm Earl and give updates in case of any changes.



Regular bridge openings will be resumed after the passing of the system and extra openings added if necessary, so that businesses may resume operations as soon as possible.



Issued by the Maritime Department, Sint Maarten Ports Authority






Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
This e-mail message is intended only for the individual(s) to whom it is
addressed. This e-mail may contain information that is privileged,
confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not
the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination,
distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail by accident, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail and all copies of it.
[/b]

[HUC]

Hi all gusty and me will give yoiu the observation of Gpe weather radar during the night to followin detail the progress of Earl. Unfortunatly this particular radar is access restricted... So stay tuned and be prepared!

[Gustywind]

Hi all gusty and me will give yoiu the observation of Gpe weather radar during the night to followin detail the progress of Earl. Unfortunatly this particular radar is access restricted... So stay tuned and be prepared!

Thanks Huc , let's provide to our friends our observations from Guadeloupe as possible and as power goes too. Be aware those who lived in the Leewards and all the islanders from the Lesser Antilles. Be safe and dry all!

[cycloneye]

Local Statement by NWs San Juan


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
727 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE...VISITORS AND MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST
CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RIO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5N...LONGITUDE 54.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 720 MILES EAST OF
SAINT THOMAS VI...OR ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF SAINT CROIX VI...OR
ABOUT 760 MILES EAST OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.


.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EARL STILL REMAINS VERY CLOSE
TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IMPLIES A RISK FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM
MAY AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON ITS
PRESENT TRACK LESS FREQUENT BANDS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS EARLY
AS MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
TURNS EARL TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF ITS FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND POTENTIALLY MAINLAND PUERTO

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR
UNINFORMED OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 930 PM. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

AMZ715-725-732-PRZ012-013-292330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.1007.100828T2327Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
727 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW AT 830 PM.

$$

VIZ001-002-292330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.100828T2327Z-000000T0000Z/
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
727 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW AT 830 PM.

$$

AMZ722-292330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.1007.100828T2327Z-000000T0000Z/
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
727 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW AT 830 PM.

$$

AMZ710-292330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.100828T2327Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
727 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW AT 830 PM.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN