ATL: EARL - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

NHC went WAY more West...

[blazess556]

i know its the nam but the 18z nam is alot further south than the 12z.

[SootyTern]

What's the record for intensity up by 40 north? 932 sounds insane

[southerngale]

18z NAM at 84 hours

[Danny MD]

Is it time to start taking earl as a serious threat to the OBX and then north to the midatlantic states? The models continue to be trending west.

Or is Fiona the one out here in Maryland we should be more worried about?

[ConvergenceZone]

WOW! Bahamas are almost in the cone now..I imagine if Earl ran up the southern edge of the cone that it would not recurve before it effected somewhere up along the east coast....

Also amazing to think that some of the east coast locations are not too far from being in the cone either....This board is going to get busy quick!

[KWT]

Most models bend back Earl to the NE right at the 120hrs mark the NHC shows, so I'd imagine if the NHC forecast went out further it may get a smidge further west but then recurve off to the NNE/NE.

[ROCK]

way south.....that has been the trend...lets see how far south this one gets...

[ConvergenceZone]

Most models bend back Earl to the NE right at the 120hrs mark the NHC shows, so I'd imagine if the NHC forecast went out further it may get a smidge further west but then recurve off to the NNE/NE.

It's the trend that's scary though KWT...What if it bends back to the NE as you mentioned, but it might hit the east coast before that sharp turn occurs....
Again, basing this on the trend we are seeing....

[KWT]

If Earl carries on moving quickly enough CZ that could well occur and at this stage in the game its probably unwise of me or anyone to discount anything...

Looks like the GFS has done a good job with spotting the trend to take Earl westwards.

[ConvergenceZone]

Regardless if it hits the east coast or not, it's become increasingly likely that the islands are in trouble...I really hope that Luis and others on the board that live on the islands are making preparations...

Even if it's not a direct hit(which still may happen), there may still be lots of torrential rain and high winds....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What's the record for intensity up by 40 north? 932 sounds insane

That only one that would be even close is the reconstructed pressure history for the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

[CrazyC83]

932mb at that size and latitude would likely be around 110-115 kt.

This is somewhat reminiscent of Bonnie in 1998, slightly farther east...

[KWT]

Yep Crazy it is rather close, I suspect the models are pretty close with the solution now but then again obviously if it decides to take a little longer to lift up and Danielle's weakness isn't all that strong we could see the threat really increase.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is it time to start taking earl as a serious threat to the OBX and then north to the midatlantic states? The models continue to be trending west.

Or is Fiona the one out here in Maryland we should be more worried about?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it is very unlikely that Earl will have much, if any, impact on Maryland. Honestly areas like Cape Cod, Rhode Island, Long Island, & Nova Scotia are far more at risk of a possible impact than is Maryland due to the forecast synoptic setup & inward curvature of the coast. In a nutshell it is highly unlikely Earl will make it that far West/Inland.

[ROCK]

If Earl carries on moving quickly enough CZ that could well occur and at this stage in the game its probably unwise of me or anyone to discount anything...

Looks like the GFS has done a good job with spotting the trend to take Earl westwards.

yeah doesnt look like Earl right now is going to "recurve" to miss the islands. and if it tracks outside the cone it might not "recurve" the EC....

[Danny MD]

Thanks Hybrid.

[KWT]

GFS once again brushes the NE Caribbean Islands, probably giving a direct hit in fact looking at the 18z.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks Hybrid.

You are welcome.

[AdamFirst]

Earl still heading WNW at 72 hours...northwest of Puerto Rico and giving a couple funny looks to the Turks and Caicos.