ATL: FIONA - Models

[jaxfladude]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Even my area may feel some nasty direct effects if that verifies, huge system!

[Ikester]

If it hit Jacksonville, that would be a horrifying scenario. Jacksonville is one of the few cities along hurricane prone US coastline that has NOT been hit by a hurricane in a VERY long time. Tampa being the other. I think the damage would be magnified in those areas and evacuations would be a nightmare.

[KWT]

Going to be real tough to call this one because so much is going to hinge on how rapidly Earl can withdraw out of the way...the fact the NHC is going with a more westerly solution will give 97L more time to withdraw and recurve...but the models are suggesting an upper pattern that could threaten the east coast.

I've been quite concerned about this one in the last 24-36hrs and the ECM shows why...with Earl and future Fiona we may have several close calls!

[ronjon]

12z ECM ensemble run at 240 hrs - quite a spread from the eastern GOM, FL peninsula, or SE coast.

[jaxfladude]

If it hit Jacksonville, that would be a horrifying scenario. Jacksonville is one of the few cities along hurricane prone US coastline that has NOT been hit by a hurricane in a VERY long time. Tampa being the other. I think the damage would be magnified in those areas and evacuations would be a nightmare.

1999's Floyd was an evacuation nightmare for sure The Fla to N.C. evacuations and the actual landfall well north of Florida, my area's coastline got brushed very good, the Pier at Jax Beach was damaged. Not to mention the horrible flooding that occurred in North Carolina

[KWT]

The thing that we can gleam from the ensembles though is there is very good support within the ECM own members of a large threat to the E.Coast somewhere...

[emeraldislencguy]

a good time to review evacuation plans and to go over things you will need if a hurricane threatens your area. I know I am paying close attention to each and every advisory and model. Thanks to everyone who makes this site so relevant. I live about 75 yards from the ocean so I am really start to pay attention.

[ronjon]

The thing that we can gleam from the ensembles though is there is very good support within the ECM own members of a large threat to the E.Coast somewhere...

Based on the ensemble run, KWT, I think it is entirely plausible for the system to even move west into FL or through the straits. Way out there but the trend appears to be more ridging so we'll see.

[Danny MD]

Could this be like a hurricane isabel? Should the residents in the mid atlantic area be monitering this?


I mean this in regards to its effects(83 MPH gust in silver spring md, power out for a week+, sustained 45+ mph for hours..) to maryland around the Washington DC area.

[Vortex]

A trend I've noticed is the Nogaps/CMC/GFS all indicate a wsw/sw movement of future fiona during the next few days..I've noticed this afternoon that the overall motion does appear to be 265-270...

[ROCK]

The thing that we can gleam from the ensembles though is there is very good support within the ECM own members of a large threat to the E.Coast somewhere...

Based on the ensemble run, KWT, I think it is entirely plausible for the system to even move west into FL or through the straits. Way out there but the trend appears to be more ridging so we'll see.

I agree...FL should be paying attention....

[JPmia]

The thing that we can gleam from the ensembles though is there is very good support within the ECM own members of a large threat to the E.Coast somewhere...

Based on the ensemble run, KWT, I think it is entirely plausible for the system to even move west into FL or through the straits. Way out there but the trend appears to be more ridging so we'll see.

Could one of you explain this ensemble? It shows multiple lows in the SW Atlantic. I don't understand that and the other models showing a specific storm.

[stormchazer]

Could this be like a hurricane isabel? Should the residents in the mid atlantic area be monitering this?


I mean this in regards to its effects(83 MPH gust in silver spring md, power out for a week+, sustained 45+ mph for hours..) to maryland around the Washington DC area.

Yes and yes. The Mid-Atlantic does need to pay attention. There is time and we do not even have an actual system yet but we have been in a "recurve" pattern. If we are seeing a pattern flip, and the NAO modeling has been hinting at this, then a recurve could occur much closer to the coast and in those cases, the outer banks and Mid-Atlantic are always at risk. People along the SE and Mid-Atl should all keep an eye.

[ROCK]

A trend I've noticed is the Nogaps/CMC/GFS all indicate a wsw/sw movement of future fiona during the next few days..I've noticed this afternoon that the overall motion does appear to be 265-270...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

yep...should be moving that way...for now

[KWT]

A trend I've noticed is the Nogaps/CMC/GFS all indicate a wsw/sw movement of future fiona during the next few days..I've noticed this afternoon that the overall motion does appear to be 265-270...

Yeah thats something I've notcied, but I think the CMC and possibly the Nogaps goes a little too far to the WSW and thus start this one up too far south...still I believe that idea above the GFS solution of it being absorbed by Earl to be honest.

[JPmia]

Wow the path Is strikingly similar to Hugo! Future model runs will certainly be interesting.

it is similar and if this system makes landfall within 200 miles either side of Charleston i will be absolutely shocked, there is just way too much error this far out, its fun to discuss of course but lets see how these models start tending over th enxt 72 hours especially as they get a handle on how far west earl the pearl makes it because at this rate its going to make it to 75W

yeah i agree as some have said above..the 'trend' is not looking good for the SE US Coast and/or maybe Florida at the moment especially with that high building in...will be more concerned if I start seeing these types of runs in the medium range of course

[KWT]

GFS has this at 57W in just 3 days time...looks too quick but then again who knows....

Doesn't look like strengthening at all on the GFS, I think once again the GFS is just a nonsense for Fiona, it just can't get a hold of the actual system at all the whole way through...

Until other models show this solution I'm just going to write this off as the GFS not handling a system at all well...

[Dean4Storms]

The thing that we can gleam from the ensembles though is there is very good support within the ECM own members of a large threat to the E.Coast somewhere...

Based on the ensemble run, KWT, I think it is entirely plausible for the system to even move west into FL or through the straits. Way out there but the trend appears to be more ridging so we'll see.

Could one of you explain this ensemble? It shows multiple lows in the SW Atlantic. I don't understand that and the other models showing a specific storm.

That just shows each Ensemble Members location of the low of Fiona at the end of the run.

[webke]

Wow the path Is strikingly similar to Hugo! Future model runs will certainly be interesting.

it is similar and if this system makes landfall within 200 miles either side of Charleston i will be absolutely shocked, there is just way too much error this far out, its fun to discuss of course but lets see how these models start tending over th enxt 72 hours especially as they get a handle on how far west earl the pearl makes it because at this rate its going to make it to 75W

yeah i agree as some have said above..the 'trend' is not looking good for the SE US Coast and/or maybe Florida at the moment especially with that high building in...will be more concerned if I start seeing these types of runs in the medium range of course

ALL I know is that every year when the models put us in the cone the models start to shift to the west as each day passes, so I would wait to see if they continue the westward trend before bringing up Hugo. I realize that the models may not change and people need to be prepared, but I wouldn't putting the cart before the horse at ten days out.

[BigB0882]

GFS has this at 57W in just 3 days time...looks too quick but then again who knows....

Doesn't look like strengthening at all on the GFS, I think once again the GFS is just a nonsense for Fiona, it just can't get a hold of the actual system at all the whole way through...

Until other models show this solution I'm just going to write this off as the GFS not handling a system at all well...

I'm confused, KWT. 6 minutes before this post you remarked how you believed the GFS idea of Earl absorbing Fiona. Why the sudden change of heart?

I think EVERYONE needs to closely watch this because of the trends. With it being so far out and unformed, it could end up anywhere. If the trends continue to go south and west, who knows, this could end up a bomb in the GoM before all is said and done.