ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

00z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

over 200 miles SW of previous run. and bee lining towards SF

Looks trapped under the high to its north with the hp moving in tandem with it and expanding. I know these models are not good but my interest is starting to definately perk up some with Big E and 97L

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane warning up for the Islands


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

[Vortex]

Wow..All I can say is thank goodness its the Nam...This run looks like a beeline for the bahamas and SE coast...The synoptics are very concerning though as the flow would continue this w/wnw right through the bahamas..It's just one run so lets see how the 00z gfs handles it....

[MGC]

Thinking this might be a Katrina like track adjustment? They sure are late getting the 11pm advisory out....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane watch for PR

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane watch for PR

not surprised with the new data ..

[gatorcane]

Hurricane watch for PR

Where is cycloneye who normally posts the advisories?

[ronjon]

Wow Hurricane Watch up now for PR and the Virgin Islands - significant shift south with the track again? Luis, getting nervous yet?

[Aric Dunn]

well they know the GFDL shifted couple hundred miles to the west now the NAM
... they are probably going to address the options

[Ikester]

Something is up at the NHC. The graphics are STILL not updated nor is the discussion out. Oh my word.... <bites nails>

[ronjon]

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory
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US Watch/Warning
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 290303
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[Ikester]

well they know the GFDL shifted couple hundred miles to the west now the NAM
... they are probably going to address the options

They might address the nation! LOL

[Normandy]

They are probably taking their time because this is becoming a very bad situtation for the islands. Earl has 24 hours until it reaches the first islands, maybe 36 before reaching PR. Mind you that these landmasses won't stop Earl from deepening, so if he undergoes RI tomorrow (Considering how it looks now that is possible) they could be dealing with a very strong hurricane.

[bostonseminole]

graphics are up on weatherunderground

[gatorcane]

Looks like no major shifts in the cone. Earl still hits the weakness.

[jabber]

Looks like no major shifts in the cone. Earl still hits the weakness.

They normally do not make large track shifts with this advisory. Bet they are waiting for gulfstream data to be feed in

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like no major shifts in the cone. Earl still hits the weakness.

They are going to wait for the 00z runs before changing anything ..

[Weather Watcher]

It sure looks huge!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Hurricane watch for PR

Where is cycloneye who normally posts the advisories?

Not too sure what time it is in PR, but Luis is probably in bed by now

[Florida1118]

I was expecting some grand thing but oh well. Onward to 5am i guess...