ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[GCANE]

This came off Africa with a very strong moisture column.

MIMIC-TPW indicates that it continues to hang on to that.

RH forecast seems to indicate that it will continue to do so in the future.

Anti-cyclone is keeping shear at bay.

IMHO, this has a lot of potential.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[Vortex]

really coming together nicely this evening...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

[Vortex]

Gcane...your posts are very informative. Keep up the great work.

[GCANE]

Gcane...your posts are very informative. Keep up the great work.

Thanks Vortex, sure will.

[GCANE]

Convection is firing nicely with moderate rain-rate; however LLC still seems to show an wave structure.

Core is warm but very wide.

Looks to be slow to spin up and hence a more due-west track.

Euro ensembles are showing a strong spinup now just east of St Croix.

[Stephanie]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

guess we can throw out all of the models showing a island issue and or US threat currently.....

come on....first this has not formed, second by tomorrow you will have a whole lot of different tracks......

As in any storm, it will be constantly evolving, just like the models. No two storms are exactly alike. This is just an opinion based on trends of the past. We're fortunate to have many pro-mets offering their opinions and guidance.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 97L moving through the Hebert Box and just NE of Caribbean Islands for now.


My observations, Nogaps, BAMD, and most important the TVCN (NHC loves to hug this model) show a sharp west or WSW turn which may be 97L impacting a building ridge. If I am reading the TAFB map correctly it's showing the ridge moving generally westward as 97L passes NE of the Caribbean?

[latitude_20]

Holy crap - very nice convection this evening. And what looks to be a due-west heading.

[gatorcane]

Models starting to bend west or wsw at the end.

[HURAKAN]

TD #8 / Fiona should be here tomorrow



The NHC is just waiting for visible images

[Blown Away]

If 97L is going to get upgraded I wish it would happen soon so we could see the NHC track!!

[fci]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

guess we can throw out all of the models showing a island issue and or US threat currently.....

come on....first this has not formed, second by tomorrow you will have a whole lot of different tracks......

As in any storm, it will be constantly evolving, just like the models. No two storms are exactly alike. This is just an opinion based on trends of the past. We're fortunate to have many pro-mets offering their opinions and guidance.

Not only that, climatology is generally a good guide.
Just look at the odds.
Yeah, weird things happen.
Ike veers southwest and goes from a Florida storm to a Texas storm.
Betsy does loops and dips SW and goes from a Carolina storm to a Florida storm.
Jeanne almost dies over DR, heads North and then loops into Florida.
These are 3 of the exceptions, however; if you use climatology as your guide unless there is a compelling reason not to; you are usually correct.
I appreciate seeing the historical numbers and rely on them extensively unless the synoptics show a deviation from the "norm".
And experts like wxman usually tell us!!!!

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass:

[BigB0882]

I'm no expert but that looks like it is closed off as opposed to earlier. Correct?

[latitude_20]

I'm no expert but that looks like it is closed off as opposed to earlier. Correct?

I was thinking the same thing. Thoughts?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yikes, if the models shift any further south, between Earl and potential Fiona, the islands may really end up with a ton of rain beore all is said and done...

[WeatherGuesser]

And again, following nearly directly over the path of the previous two for a few days.

[gatorcane]

looksl ike it is hinting at a slight just south of west movement tonight as some of the models suggested.

[supercane]

Looks to be closed, a) except for those NE winds appearing inexplicably in the SE quadrant (should be SW) and b) although NHC analyzes the ITCZ, the deep SW winds south of the center appear more reminiscent of a monsoon trough (in which case SW winds are expected and not necessarily indicative of a LLCC, see early Danielle for an example). In such a case, you could view this as a tropical wave with a sharp wave axis. I do favor a LLCC and think this will go, but a) above would be inconsistent with a well-defined LLCC.

[ROCK]

Fci, if we should rely on climo then we should be watching the CLIPPER....point is prior tracks though entertaining do not provide us anything. We have no idea what the synopics were in 1913..sure we can guess but every year is different. If 97 forms at a different lat or moves more westward in a weaken state you get a totally different set of tracks...that do not favor RECURVE...

climo is ever changing...its like when someone says we are over due for a major....there is no such thing as over due.....there is no odds. Do we really play the odds when we are talking about a hurricane? We aint in Vegas.....