ATL: EARL - Models

[hurricanedude]

Im not Ivan but it has it a cat 2

[CrazyC83]

If the recurve is THAT sharp, it may hit Bermuda hard as well...

[Aric Dunn]

The model plot has not updated to the 00z BAM models yet

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps has a direct hit

[AdamFirst]

18z NOGAPS is JUST coming out?

A bit late...

[Phoenix78]

I'm sorry - but, I can't wrap my head around the idea that a storm heading west at 21 mph can turn northwest and start a major recurve on a dime! What am I missing here??

[baitism]

I'm sorry - but, I can't wrap my head around the idea that a storm heading west at 21 mph can turn northwest and start a major recurve on a dime! What am I missing here??

Nothing. Danielle is weakening pretty quickly and heading to the NE out to sea, meanwhile, the ridge is building east from CONUS fairly quickly. I find it hard to believe that Earl completely misses CONUS. I expect the models to show major changes starting tomorrow morning.

[paintplaye]

NAM much farther south and west:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And look at the high centered over eastern north carolina. Looks as if it could keep Earl moving more west for another couple of days especially if it does not breakdown in a hurry. If that ridge is stronger and sticks around a little longer looks as if Big E could even make an unwelcomed appearance to the north gulf coast

[cycloneye]

Lets see what GFS has at 00z.

[Blown Away]

And look at the high centered over eastern north carolina. Looks as if it could keep Earl moving more west for another couple of days especially if it does not breakdown in a hurry. If that ridge is stronger and sticks around a little longer looks as if Big E could even make an unwelcomed appearance to the north gulf coast

That would be a stretch for sure, very unlikely IMO.

[RL3AO]

I'm sorry - but, I can't wrap my head around the idea that a storm heading west at 21 mph can turn northwest and start a major recurve on a dime! What am I missing here??

Nothing. Danielle is weakening pretty quickly and heading to the NE out to sea, meanwhile, the ridge is building east from CONUS fairly quickly. I find it hard to believe that Earl completely misses CONUS. I expect the models to show major changes starting tomorrow morning.

Joe Bastardi had a video on it a few days ago. He showed it was quite common when you have the setup that you have now. 1964 was a main example.

[Evil Jeremy]

I haven't been following Recon today, so can someone tell me if the 00z runs have Gulfstream data in them?

[blp]

Interesting if you run the GFDL for 97L you have Earl crossing 75W. But if you run it on Earl it only gets to 73W. This shows the contrast between if Earl stays weak more West and if it gets stronger more poleward movement. Also on the Earl run 97l disappears.

97l run


Earl run

[SeminoleWind]

[quote="paintplaye"]NAM much farther south and west:

here is the hpc 7 day pretty slow progress on the trough it looks like

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[artist]

when will the models be out?

[ronjon]

Mid-level ridging more expansive and stronger over the SE US in the 00Z GFS run.

[gatorcane]

Earl looks to be headed NW now, will likely go east of the Bahamas. Ridge breaks down:

[Ikester]

GFS closing in on Bahamas at 84 hrs:

[gatorcane]

Quite a difference from the 84 hours 00Z NAM. Look how far south the NAM is: