WPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression 93C

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 282346
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 28 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN PULSING IN THIS AREA BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT SHOWS LITTLE SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THE
PRESENT TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BURKE

[supercane]

Impressive on vis...

...with hints of a circulation...

...but very shallow convection as seen on IR:

[Kingarabian]

It looks nice for an invest...

[bob rulz]

Incredible structure. Needs to look better on IR but this one is worth keeping an eye on.

[Chacor]

CPHC doesn't really like it despite its current structure and apparent circulation:
ACPN50 PHFO 290537
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 28 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN PULSING IN THIS AREA. A SINGLE COLD CLOUD TOP HAS RECENTLY
FORMED...BUT MOST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS LITTLE SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

$$

POWELL

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 291145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1730 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND MOST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ABOUT TO MOVE
WEST OF 180W...OUTSIDE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

POWELL

[dexterlabio]

This one looks quite good for an invest.

[supercane]

Went pfft!

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis has this as a TD:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 178E WEST 10 KT.

Edited to add vis, which appears to show exposed center in NE quadrant:


ASCAT missed.

Unfortunately imagery not updated on NRL site, maybe because JTWC has to express interest in it first?

[supercane]

NRL problems fixed. Looks like sunset approaching:


Dvorak classifications from SAB:
30/0232 UTC 6.7N 176.9E T2.0/2.0 93C
29/2032 UTC 6.7N 179.0E T1.0/1.0 93C

[supercane]

From JTWC's significant tropical weather advisory, updated 06Z 08/30/10:
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 177.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING AN ANTICYCLONE TO
THE WEST, LEADING TO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGH VWS ALOFT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

TXPN24 KNES 300338
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93C)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 6.7N
D. 176.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...VERY SMALL RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEM HAS VERY INTERESTING MI
PRESENTATION IN TMI THAT SHOWS BANDING TYPE MOAT SHOWING GOOD ORGANIZATION
AND DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE CDO FEATURE. BANDING FOR THIS SYSTEM
WAS .3 TO .4 AND CDO PATTERN OF 3/4 YIELD DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.5. PT IS
2.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/2225Z 6.8N 178.0E TMI

...GALLINA

[supercane]

TXPN24 KNES 300924
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93C)
B. 30/0832Z
C. 6.9N
D. 175.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LIVE FAST DIE FAST...WELL DEFINED BUT VERY SMALL CIRCULATION
CONFIRMED ON AMSRE PASS AT 0134Z BUT AS CONVECTION HAS SUBSEQUENTLY
COLLAPSED...CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK EVEN IN SWIR. DT
IS GENEROUS 1.0 BASED ON BANDING. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 1.5. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=

[supercane]

Still analyzed as a TD by JMA on their 12Z surface analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 174E WNW 15 KT.

Not impressive on IR:


Dvorak from KNES:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1501 UTC 7.6N 172.5E T1.5/2.0 93C
30/0832 UTC 6.9N 175.5E T1.5/2.0 93C
30/0232 UTC 6.7N 176.9E T2.0/2.0 93C

TXPN24 KNES 301547
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93C)
B. 30/1501Z
C. 7.6N
D. 172.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.
MET = 2.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
NIL
...KIBLER
=

Still looks like there's a circulation on microwave though:

[supercane]

18Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 08N 173E NW 20 KT.

Latest Dvorak from KNES:
TXPN24 KNES 302112
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93C)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 9.1N
D. 172.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2 BANDING ON LOG10
SPRIAL. PT=1.5. MET=2.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/1814Z 9.0N 172.9E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=

BTW, SPS from Guam for this system from earlier:
000
WWPQ80 PGUM 300616
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
416 PM CHST MON AUG 30 2010

PMZ181-310200-
MAJURO-
416 PM CHST MON AUG 30 2010

...HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MAJURO AND NEARBY ATOLLS...

A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...JTWC INVEST AREA 93C IS CENTERED NEAR
7N176E OR ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF MAJURO. 93C IS MOVING WEST AT 14
KNOTS AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO AND NEARBY ATOLLS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MAJURO AND SURROUNDING
ATOLLS INCLUDING ARNO...MILI...MALOELAP...NAMU...AILINGLAPLAP AND
JALUIT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NEAR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATS IN SURROUNDING WATERS.
INTER-ATOLL VOYAGE SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TO SECURE SMALL BOATS AND ANY
PERSONAL PROPERTY THAT MAY BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND IS A GOOD IDEA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

CHAN

and from their AFD earlier:
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE IN THE ENTIRE REGION IS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...JTWC INVEST AREA 93C LOCATING JUST WEST OF THE DATE
LINE. 93C IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG 7N AND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORMY CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO AND NEARBY ATOLLS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER...IT
WILL AFFECT KOSRAE AND POSSIBLE POHNPEI TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH NO WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
MODERATE WIND SHEAR PERSISTING ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SLOW IF ANY. EVEN SO...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MAJURO AND MIGHT NEED TO BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE STATUS OF 93C. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF 93C AROUND MIDWEEK... THE ITCZ FOLLOWING BEHIND IS
GOING TO KEEP WETNESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

[supercane]

Exposed center on vis:


Microwave:

[bob rulz]

Very strong circulation for an invest but it's lacked convection since it was designated.

[StormingB81]

JTWC has it as fair

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
171.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LLCC IS SUPPORTED BY A 302127Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PKWA. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[supercane]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N
170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[supercane]

Off NRL site.