WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[supercane]

TD advisory issued by JMA:

WTPQ22 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 20.4N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 22.0N 133.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[StormingB81]

Got it even as a more direct hit now. Winds about the same. I think by tomorrow we will def know with the winds and the closeness of this storm

[supercane]

First JTWC prognostic reasoning:
WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575
NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 282302Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY IMPROVING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-
dEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED SOUTH
OF JAPAN. THE 28/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS
STR IS STRENGTHENING (+70 METERS PAST 24 HOURS) AND BUILDING
WESTWARD AS THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA
WEAKENS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT
TRACK DEPICTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
AT 13-15 KNOTS SOA. MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO GFS, WBAR
AND NOGAPS IN ADDITION TO UKMO FIELDS AND LONG-RANGE
ECMWF FIELDS, WHICH SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.
C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND ANOTHER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AFTER TAU 72. TS 08W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Interesting forecast track from JTWC; TH I suppose the decision now is Okinawa for a possible direct hit from a minimal typhoon or Shanghai for a brush from a 90-knot one.

[StormingB81]

I am Guessing Tomorrow Morning we will be in TCCOR 3

[StormingB81]

OKinawa is now at TCCOR 3!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interesting forecast track from JTWC; TH I suppose the decision now is Okinawa for a possible direct hit from a minimal typhoon or Shanghai for a brush from a 90-knot one.

Or try both . I can get to Okinawa very easily and if I had time I could race from Naha to Shanghai for 2nd landfall (2 direct flights a week I think.) Tomorrow will be critical as to what I do and Lionrock is also a spanner in the works. Stuck between a Lionrock and a hard place!

T numbers ramping up at the moment:

TXPN22 KNES 290326
SIMWIR

A. 08W (NONAME)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 20.8N

D. 135.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING GIVES A DT OF A 3.0. MET IS A 2.5 FOR THIS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT IS A 3.0. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
INTENSITY TO A 2.5 24 HRS AFTER INITIAL T1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is the place to be. It will have a bigger inpact and be a bigger typhoon then lionrock..lol OH! WHat will 08W be names..anyone know?

[supercane]

Kompasu.

[StormingB81]

:uarrow: Kompasu.

Thank you! I tried to steal Typhoon Hunter's thunder but couldnt find out exactly what it means..lol

[supercane]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290353
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EIGHT (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082010
200 PM CHST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM 08W WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
820 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP.

TROPICAL STORM 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...21.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
135.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 PM CHST LATER THIS EVENING.

$$

CHAN

Forecast wind swath based on JTWC track from NWS Guam:


Last microwave:


Latest IR:

[supercane]

Thank you! I tried to steal Typhoon Hunter's thunder but couldnt find out exactly what it means..lol

From HKO's site, "Circinus (compass: a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcs)." That is, katakanized compass コンパス

[Typhoon Hunter]

Okinawa is the place to be. It will have a bigger inpact and be a bigger typhoon then lionrock..lol OH! WHat will 08W be names..anyone know?

In terms of just strength of wind and rain maybe, but remember Lionrock is now a direct threat to one of most densely populated coastlines in the world. It doesn't take big strong storms to kill and cause damage down here.

And if Lionrock stalls the flood potential in S China is huge.

Kompasu means compass in Japanese. I wonder how 08W will interact with the TD just east of Taiwan. That also seems to be a spanner in the works right now...

[StormingB81]

lol thank you..Well like I said before all the preperations for myself is done. I just need to fill up to more water jugs so I will have 5 gallons of water. Oh Tomorrow will be busy cleaning up around teh work site making sure all is tied down and everything else. I am sure we will be exsausted by the time I get home. I wil lbe sure to keep everyone updated on teh conditions in and around the area atleast until and if the power goes out. I wil lbe sure to take photos however I havent mastered getting them on here so worse comes to worse I can send them to someone to post them on here.

[supercane]

08W in a low shear environment and possibly under an anticyclone:


BTW, will be interesting to see if Lionrock, 08W, and 92W interact with or disrupt each other.

StormingB81, stay safe.

Typhoon Hunter, also stay safe and good hunting. Thanks for answering my question earlier on agency preference. I think advantages of JTWC is the issuance of full advisories even for TDs, explanation of prognostic reasoning, better archives via ATCF, and (maybe not as much for non-Western Hemisphere posters) MSW given in terms of 10-min winds. As for chasing, while I agree greater impacts may be seen in the more populous Hong Kong, you don't need a typhoon to flood, so I would pick the more powerful storm also given a choice.

[StormingB81]

Will do...Thanks. It has been over 5 years since I have been through a typhoon...

[StormingB81]

WHat does spanner mean?

[Chacor]

WHat does spanner mean?

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/throw_a_s ... _the_works
# (UK) A problem, dilemma or obstacle; something unexpected or troublesome

Half way through the production of Macbeth, the director found that the stage was smaller than he expected. This really threw a spanner in the works.

[KWT]

Wow this sort came out of nowhere for me since I've been paying alot of attention to the Atlantic but I've gotta be honest and say this looks like a TS to me right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow this sort came out of nowhere for me since I've been paying alot of attention to the Atlantic but I've gotta be honest and say this looks like a TS to me right now.

Wow, you are up late KWT! It's it like super late there in the UK?