ATL: FIONA - Models

[shah8]

Interesting thing about it is that it's going very fast for a moderate to large size hurricane. Tampa would get pretty darned smacked.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is one thing I still do not understand. As of right now, the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS and UKMET all show 97L turning NW away from the East Coast. Now only the Euro and to some extent, the CMC, show 97L becoming a threat to the East Coast. Why are the other models doing this but not the Euro and CMC?

[blp]

Where is Florida....that thing is huge....

[SouthFLTropics]

Now for the important question...How reliable and accurate has the ECMWF been this far out recently? I know that many on the board regard it as one of the better models but is it realistic to think that it will be that accurate at 216 hours?

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Another view

[shah8]

Seriously, though, I would like to see how far off the MA coast Earl is at 132hrs. Can someone post a non-polar image of the euro at 132?

[Ivanhater]

Now for the important question...How reliable and accurate has the ECMFW been this far out recently? I know that many on the board regard it as one of the better models but is it realistic to think that it will be that accurate at 216 hours?

SFT

The Euro ensembles have been in good agreement shifting south and west..when you have the ensembles matching the trend of the operational, then you know it is latching on and not a fluke run.

[Brent]

Wow at this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Now for the important question...How reliable and accurate has the ECMFW been this far out recently? I know that many on the board regard it as one of the better models but is it realistic to think that it will be that accurate at 216 hours?

SFT

The Euro ensembles have been in good agreement shifting south and west..when you have the ensembles matching the trend of the operational, then you know it is latching on and not a fluke run.

Well in that case then I think I'm going to need some of your Vodka and Cranberries...

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Just got back home from some...just in time too!

[xcool22]

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[Vortex]

00Z CMC long range turns it back west towards the coast with landfall in SC....there is obvious a trend here....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

[blp]

It seems to be following the EURO which was showing that at the 12z. Right now we have the CMC and EURO on board with an EC threat and they are arguably the best performing models past 72hrs.

00Z CMC long range turns it back west towards the coast with landfall in SC....there is obvious a trend here....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

It seems to be following the EURO which was showing that at the 12z. Right now we have the CMC and EURO on board with an EC threat and they are arguably the best performing models past 72hrs.

00Z CMC long range turns it back west towards the coast with landfall in SC....there is obvious a trend here....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

That is exactly what I noticed as well. So far it is only the Euro and CMC that show the East Coast threat. I wonder why the others turn it NW away from the coast.

[Ivanhater]

177 mph

[TwisterFanatic]

177 mph

WOW!!!

[blp]

You brought up a good point earlier. Years ago I remember the GFDL and I think the HWRF using some background information off the GFS grid and I remember some biases where it would tend to favor in some cases what the GFS was showing. I wonder if that is still the case. I noticed on a few runs that the GFDL had a similar scenario of absorption of Fiona. I guess we would need a pro met to weigh in. As for the NOGAPS and UKMET I think they have less skill past the 72hr forecast. I expect all to start shifting towards the EURO and CMC.

It seems to be following the EURO which was showing that at the 12z. Right now we have the CMC and EURO on board with an EC threat and they are arguably the best performing models past 72hrs.

00Z CMC long range turns it back west towards the coast with landfall in SC....there is obvious a trend here....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

That is exactly what I noticed as well. So far it is only the Euro and CMC that show the East Coast threat. I wonder why the others turn it NW away from the coast.

[blp]

[fci]

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Pardon the gallows humor, but this looks like "The Storm that ate Florida"

[Ivanhater]

Don't see this image of a Cat 5 hitting Florida every day