ATL: FIONA - Models

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ColinDelia
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#421 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:13 am

102 hours. Over PR but very weak.

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#422 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:14 am

108 hours

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#423 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:16 am

114 hours
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#424 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:29 am

144 hours
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150 hours
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#425 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:34 am

168 hours
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174 hours
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#426 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:34 am

ColinDelia wrote:144 hours
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150 hours
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Put links in post, dud!
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#427 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:40 am

Bad_Hurricane wrote:Put links in post, dud!


I thought images were ok in the models thread. No?
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#428 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:46 am

Over Bermuda but VERY weak
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#429 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:48 am

ColinDelia wrote:
Bad_Hurricane wrote:Put links in post, dud!


I thought images were ok in the models thread. No?


its fine, threads are loaded with images and CAPS and colored fonts
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superfly

#430 Postby superfly » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:49 am

That run is bunk again, it doesn't even really develop 97L.
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#431 Postby Vortmax1 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:08 am

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There's that sick feeling in my stomach again.
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#432 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:19 am

superfly wrote:That run is bunk again, it doesn't even really develop 97L.


seems bunky but we have seen models predict weak development before and be right so lets see what transpires
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#433 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 7:43 am

The ecmwf looks like it brings a major hurricane just a little south of where Frances and Jeanne made landfall in 2004. :eek:

Glad that run is 216 hours out
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#434 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 29, 2010 7:44 am

Well the trend at least is in the right direction now for GFS. It keeps a separate low, albeit weak, that doesn't get absorbed into Earl. It still is having problems with intensity and the synoptics but it may come closer to the ECM/CMC in the coming days.
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#435 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:01 am

Hope the ecmwf is wrong but fully expect it to shift around the next few days
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#436 Postby Vortmax1 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:12 am

Glad that run is 216 hours out



So am I!
There's still those haunting thoughts about how accurate the ECMWF can be at times.
Galveston and Ike comes to my mind immediately.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#437 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:13 am

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100829 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  1200   100830  0000   100830  1200   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  36.3W   14.5N  39.8W   15.2N  44.0W   16.0N  48.7W
BAMD    13.7N  36.3W   13.8N  39.7W   14.1N  43.4W   14.5N  47.2W
BAMM    13.7N  36.3W   14.0N  39.8W   14.3N  43.9W   14.8N  48.2W
LBAR    13.7N  36.3W   13.8N  39.6W   14.0N  43.4W   14.1N  47.3W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  1200   100902  1200   100903  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  53.5W   21.3N  61.7W   30.6N  65.8W   38.7N  61.6W
BAMD    15.1N  51.0W   16.9N  58.5W   19.5N  65.6W   21.8N  70.4W
BAMM    15.3N  52.4W   17.7N  60.1W   21.7N  66.4W   26.1N  69.6W
LBAR    14.6N  51.3W   16.1N  59.0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        62KTS          75KTS          81KTS          81KTS
DSHP        62KTS          75KTS          81KTS          81KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  32.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  29.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


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#438 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:21 am

Notice the deep bam bending left at the end (dark green model). That is a clue there is a building western Atlantic ridge it is sniffing out

The other models you see recurving it are not going to show a bend left this far out. The exception is the avn model which may not be handling the merge og Earl and 97l properly.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#439 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 am

notice on the 12Z bamd major shift west...maps not updated to reflect yet.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#440 Postby blazess556 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:24 am

Vortex wrote:notice on the 12Z bamd major shift west...maps not updated to reflect yet.

yep. just refreshed and you are right.
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