ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis have you got the Best Track?
Tkanks

It was posted at page 54, but here it is again.

AL, 07, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 171N, 577W, 65, 985, HU, 50, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 30

[Gustywind]

Be vigilant and on your guard my friends from the Leewards especially those who are in the Northern Leewards as a RED CODE should come soon during the one or two hours. All these infos are those from our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.
Summary of the alerts:
Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards : ORANGE CODE but St Marteen and St Barth should be in RED CODE in one or two hours.
Martinica: YELLOW alert.
All in the islands be safe an dry hoping for the best...
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Hey Luis have you got the Best Track?
Tkanks

It was posted at page 54, but here it is again.

AL, 07, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 171N, 577W, 65, 985, HU, 50, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 30

Oh excuse me i have not seen that before... thanks

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Outerbands coming within range of Lesser Antilles rader.

[tolakram]

Earl needs to turn!

Good luck Islanders, here's hoping Earl stays a minimal hurricane ... or less!

[emeraldislencguy]

what is the threat to the coast of nc
it looks like the nhc is pretty confident earl will pass off shore
how would the pro mets estimate the threat to nc

[RL3AO]

what is the threat to the coast of nc
it looks like the nhc is pretty confident earl will pass off shore
how would the pro mets estimate the threat to nc

I'm not a pro met, but its something you really really need to watch and be ready to invoke your hurricane plans.

It wouldn't hurt to start preparing, cause even if it misses there will probably be more east coast threats with the current weather pattern.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

what is the threat to the coast of nc
it looks like the nhc is pretty confident earl will pass off shore
how would the pro mets estimate the threat to nc

I'm not a pro met, but its something you really really need to watch and be ready to invoke your hurricane plans.

Agreed, on both counts (I'm not a full pro either).

[storm4u]

i think anyone from north carolina northward should be making sure they have everything they need now just incase

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks
going to church and then going to check supplies and will watch the updates the storm
i live about 75 yards from ocean so I will closely monitor the storm
storm 2k is great!!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Here is the url for the animation of the still image I posted. If anyone wants to see the latest loop.

[jinftl]

Not a pro met, but this graphic from the NHC (they put an updated version out at 11am, 5pm, 11pm, 5am etc) shows the current low end probability (5-10% chance) of sustained hurricane force winds remaining just off the coast of north carolina. This is a graphic I would definitely keep an eye on and watch for any trends that suggest the probability is increasing over time.



The probability of sustained winds of 39 mph is as high as 20-30% for the Outer Banks and less as you move inland. Again, watch the trend of this graphic. If you have marine or coastal flooding interests, even sustained ts force winds can caused flooding on the Outer Banks I would imagine. Effects inland would be limited/more of a nuisance if this graphic materializes.



What I like about these graphics is that they drive home the idea that sounding the 'all clear' for an area is not always so clear cut this far out. The probability may be low, but even a 5% chance of hurricane force winds means that an 'all clear' is never something that can responsibly be given this far out. If by tonight that probability goes up to 10% and by tomorrow that goes up even higher to 20%.....that would be a disturbing trend.

What this graphic shows is that although no one is currently suggesting this is going to be a florida storm, the possibilty of fringe effects as much as sustained t.s. force winds (5-10% chance) is just offshore the east central coast of the state.

what is the threat to the coast of nc
it looks like the nhc is pretty confident earl will pass off shore
how would the pro mets estimate the threat to nc

[ROCK]

Earl not really gaining much lat....hmmmm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[TheBurn]

[wx247]

Earl is looking much more organized with every satellite update. My thoughts and prayers are with the people of the Caribbean islands under watches and warnings today...

[ROCK]

nice pics burn....He will be a hurricane before PR I am afraid....now that is a classic structure for a TS...

track wise looks like he is going to blow thru the left area of cone......I find that interesting since a weakness is there but he is not taking it....

[pimentel2]

Too early to tell, but I fear this may be the next Long Island Express.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Earl is looking much more organized with every satellite update. My thoughts and prayers are with the people of the Caribbean islands under watches and warnings today...

Same here, I'm starting to get really worried for them (including our members in the region). Let us all hope Earl either weakens, or moves off to the NW. 2005 soured me on hurricanes impacting land areas, now I vastly prefer fishes.

[srainhoutx]

Already a hurricane ROCK.

[Javlin]

Earl not really gaining much lat....hmmmm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

That's what gets me Rock that the models keep showing WNW(more than whats happening),Earls been moving at a very good clip(stong ridging) and we see a CW high that is strong according to Cimss?what gives?? as much as I watch I still need a room at the Holiday Inn.